There are two schools of thought when it comes to the NCAA Tournament’s role in evaluating NBA draft prospects.
On the one hand, scouts and GMs have already had a seasons worth— or more— of time to analyze the player’s expected to make. And besides, there are countless NBA superstars who never made a run to the Final Four and were still able to have a major impact (For example, of the top five MVP candidates— James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, and Isaiah Thomas— only Westbrook made it to the semi-finals of March Madness).
On the other hand, there are a handful of talent evaluators who believe that performances on a big stage like the NCAA tourney matters. A lot. Whether or not a player is able to rise to the occasion with more eyes on him than ever could be an indicator of how they’ll handle pressure as their NBA career progresses.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the names likely to be called during June’s NBA Draft whose draft stock rose or took a hit with their play over the first two rounds of March Madness.
JOSH JACKSON, F, KANSAS
DraftExpress rank: 3
Draft Stock: RISING
He may already be (firmly) the third-ranked player of the class of ’17, but Josh Jackson is turning heads with his play at the NCAA Tournament nonetheless. In a marquee matchup against Michigan State and coveted combo wing prospect, Miles Bridges, Jackson rose to the occasion and showed off his unrivalled two-way game. Jackson dropped 23 points (and two threes) along with a pair of blocks and steals in Kansas’ win.
Jackson is an easy player to envision making noise at the next level, where his well-rounded game and defensive acumen makes for all-star level potential. Whether his tourney performance enough to vault past the consensus top-two picks, guards Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, remains to be seen. But if Jackson continues at this pace, teams selecting atop the draft who already have (like, say, the Boston Celtics) may want to give serious consideration to going off the board and selecting Jackson.
CALEB SWANIGAN, PF, PURDUE
DraftExpress rank: 33
Draft Stock: RISING
Swanigan is an interesting case. For starters, he’s easily the most dominant player in the tournament and the only reason why Purdue has a shot at toppling Kansas on Thursday night. Swanigan has been beastly all season hasn’t slowed down. The six-foot-nine, 260-lb forward followed up his 16-point/14-rebound/4-assist/3-block performance in round one with 20/12/7 and three three-pointers in Purdue’s second round win over Iowa State.
And yet, Swanigan is a bubble first-round pick on most mock drafts. Why? Scouts have serious concerns about his conditioning, and whether or not the former 300-pounder can keep the weight he shed this off-season off for good. NBA GMs may view Swanigan as more of a Tyler Hansbrough type— dominant in college but with a skill set that can’t quite translate to the pros— but frankly it’s hard to overlook what Swanigan brings to the table. He’s a tenacious rebounder and an effective scorer from all over the floor with range that extends beyond the three-point arc.
LONZO BALL, PG, UCLA
DraftExpress rank: 2
Draft Stock: RISING
Like Jackson, Ball is already at or near the top of most draft boards. But with stellar outings through two rounds, Ball could be playing himself into the no.1 overall spot.
Yes, he scored 18 points as UCLA advanced to the Sweet 16 (where they’ll play on Friday night vs. Kentucky in the most anticipated matchup of the tourney so far), but what sticks out about Ball is his penchant to absolutely control a game as the lead guard. He registered seven boards and nine assists, the seemingly-effortless and contagious passing ability being what NBA scouts are most drawn to. Ball led the NCAA in assists this season and is proving that when he gets the ball moving he almost single-handedly gives his team a chance to win.
HARRY GILES, PF, DUKE
DraftExpress rank: 28
Draft Stock: FALLING
Think about all of the star freshman we’ve seen excell over the weekend— Ball, Jackson, Bridges, Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox… Giles was ranked no.1 and ahead of all of them during their high school careers. But two ACL injuries later, and Giles was under the microscope all season.
Scouts have reportedly said that his lack of a starring role on Duke wasn’t hurting his draft potential, but after logging just fifteen minutes of playing time total during Duke’s two-round appearance at March Madness, Giles wasn’t able to improve his stock at all. He may return to school for another year to re-establish himself, but otherwise will have to hope for an impressive combine— and positive feedback from doctor’s re: his knees— to make noise this summer.
LUKE KENNARD, SG, DUKE
DraftExpress rank: 22
Draft Stock: FALLING
ZACH COLLINS, PF/C, GONZAGA
DraftExpress rank: 25
Draft Stock: RISING
A seven-footer with a smooth jumper and excellent shot-blocking instincts is sure to make the radars of NBA scouts. Collins impressed in the Wildcats second-round victory, posting 14 points and four blocks in 21 minutes of action. Gonzaga is poised to continue their tourney run and the freshman Collins is peaking at the right time, sure to benefit from the increased attention.
