In the modern NBA, the three-point shot is king.
For proof, look no further than the last two teams standing at the end of last season. The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers knocked down the first- and second-most triples per game in 2015-16, respectively.
By contrast, the Toronto Raptors struggled mightily from beyond the arc in the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, and it contributed to them falling to the eventual-champion Cavaliers in six games. For the series, Toronto shot 29 per cent from three-point range compared to Cleveland’s 39 per cent clip.
Fast forward five months and, three games into the 2016-17 regular season, the same problem seems to be rearing its ugly head. The sample size is minuscule, sure, but poor long-distance shooting has already cost the 2-1 Raptors one game, and very nearly a second on Halloween night against the Denver Nuggets.
Through three games, the Raptors are making a league-worst 3.7 threes per contest on 22 per cent shooting from deep. Thus far, they’ve been able to get by, earning two wins against lesser opponents, but the issue could prove problematic if it persists as the season wears on.
DeMar DeRozan is the team’s top scoring option and has started the year on a wicked pace, netting at least 32 points in each outing. His game is centred on drives to the basket, and operating within the three-point line with a strong portion of his touches coming in isolation sets.
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If his teammates don’t soon prove capable of knocking down three-pointers with consistency, opposing defences will start to pack the paint, making it more difficult for DeRozan to find a path to the rim.
Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (left) drives at Cleveland Cavaliers forward Tristan Thompson. (Chris Young/CP)
The same problem could come into play for fifth-year man Jonas Valanciunas. Like DeRozan, Valanciunas has kicked off the new season playing at an all-star level. As a rare traditional centre, Valanciunas does the vast majority of his work from 15 feet and in. Having threats out on the perimeter to space the floor for the big Lithuanian will be key for his sustained success.
Valanciunas is proving to be a legitimate threat in post-up situations, and if it continues, he will start seeing double teams on a more frequent basis. What’s the best way to make an opponent pay for sending a second defender? Kicking the ball out and working it around until the open man knocks down a three. It’s hard to trust the Raptors to do that at the moment.
So why is Toronto struggling from long range? This is a team that finished fourth in the NBA a season ago in terms of three-point percentage and has brought back nearly all of its rotation players.
It begins with the starting lineup, which is devoid of three-point shooters outside of Kyle Lowry and DeMarre Carroll. In Lowry’s case, he often prefers to serve as a facilitator in the early stages of games, prioritizing his teammates’ offence before looking for his shot as time wears on.
Up front, free-agent acquisition Jared Sullinger was supposed to take up the role Luis Scola played last year, serving as a power forward who could hit the corner three and also mix it up in the paint.
Foot surgery has forced Sullinger to the sidelines for the next two to three months, thrusting rookie Pascal Siakam into the starting unit. Three-point shooting is not a part of the 22-year-old’s game.
Siakam has filled in to the best of his abilities, but the bulk of the minutes at the four spot go to super reserve Patrick Patterson. A career 37 per cent three-point shooter, Patterson has not been able to find his form through these first three games, making just one of his eight attempts.
The slow start is nothing new for Patterson, though. The Kentucky product shot just 29 per cent through the first two months of last season before turning it on come January to finish in line with his career mark in that department. It’s much too early to hit the panic button.
The good news for the Raptors is they are winning games and have plenty of time to overcome their woes from beyond the arc. The sooner that happens the better, though, to keep opposing defences honest and allow the offence to work to the best of its capabilities.