Once upon a time the NBA champion Golden State Warriors and the never NBA champion Toronto Raptors were tied at the hip, their records identical, immediate futures equally uncertain.
It wasn’t that long ago, actually. On March 19, 2009, the two franchises were 24-44 through 68 games. Each team was headed to the lottery. But the final three weeks of that season altered both franchises, and arguably the NBA. The Warriors finished 29-53 after limping to the end of the season with a 5-9 record and ‘earned’ the seventh overall pick in the draft three months later. They took Steph Curry. The Raptors went the opposite way, surging to an improbable 9-5 record down the stretch. They picked ninth overall and chose DeMar DeRozan.
On Tuesday night the Warriors completed one of the most remarkable seasons in NBA history. They won the NBA Finals 4-2 over the Cleveland Cavaliers, becoming the first team other than the Michael Jordan-era Chicago Bulls to win 83 games in a year. Their catalyst was Curry, the regular season MVP and the fire starter in the Warriors’ series-defining fourth quarters.
The Raptors? After their first-round washout they remain in the NBA’s mushy middle, their immediate future entirely up in the air.
The Warriors represent what maybe, sort of, could have been. With a little luck Curry could have been a Raptor. As could have Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. And let’s not get started with Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, who was passed over in the 2004 draft by Toronto in favour of Rafael Araujo, the worst draft mistake the franchise has ever made.
And the three-point happy, pass-first style that Golden State perfected this season? That was lifted from the Phoenix Suns, who ushered in the approach under then general manager Bryan Colangelo, who was never able to import it north of the border after he joined the Raptors in 2006.
Which brings us back to Curry and the final weeks of the 2009 season.
The Raptors’ finish was fool’s gold, built on a remarkably weak schedule and the inspired play of Chris Bosh, determined to finish with a 20-10 line out of the season-long wreckage. As well Shawn Marion, added by Colangelo in a mid-season trade, was trying to prove to the NBA he could still play, while Andrea ‘Enigma’ Bargnani put together one of the better stretches of his season.
In preparing for the draft the Raptors had Curry ahead of DeRozan but never had any expectation they could get him with the No. 9 pick. In truth, if the Minnesota Timberwolves had half a clue the Davidson star wouldn’t have been available at No. 7 either. That the T-Wolves took Jonny Flynn at No. 6 — after taking point guard Ricky Rubio at No. 5 – is one of the worst screw-ups in recent draft history.
While DeRozan has turned out to be an excellent choice at No. 9 it’s sad to think how perfect Curry would have been for the Raptors. Say what you want about Colangelo, there is no doubt he would have been quick to recognize and implement Curry’s skill as a Steve Nash-type lynchpin in a full-throttle attack. When you factor in Curry’s Raptors roots through his father Dell and that his wife is from Markham, Ont., he is truly the franchise superstar that got away.
But the Golden State-Toronto parallels run deeper.
Each team continued to struggle even after drafting all-star players in ’09. They made repeated appearances in the lottery; Golden State just found more profit there. They schooled nearly everyone when they took Klay Thompson at No. 11 in 2011 (the Raptors took Jonas Valanciunas at No. 4). But their paths crossed again in the lockout-shortened 2012 season.
This was the year the Raptors were actually trying to tank, as Colangelo acknowledged publicly some years later. The target was Anthony Davis, although the plan wasn’t well executed. Having hired Dwane Casey the Raptors were foiled when their new coach lifted the 30th-rated defence the season before to 15th in the NBA. This time Golden State and Toronto ended up with identical 23-43 records, though the Raptors did their best to make it worse. On the last night of the season they played Solomon Alabi a career-high 41 minutes against the New Jersey Nets, who were also jockeying for a lottery position. Alabi never played in the NBA again, but the Raptors were undone by 10-day contract signee Ben Uzoh’s triple-double. The win lifted them into a tie with the Warriors and also out of a potential coin-flip with New Jersey that could have yielded the No. 6 pick.
The Raptors had a need for a small forward to play alongside DeRozan and were enamoured with Barnes, who they hoped they could get at No. 7. That plan went out the window when they lost a coin-flip in the league office to break the tie. Barnes went to the Warriors and has been a two-way fixture in their rise as one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the NBA. Toronto took Terrence Ross at No. 8 as a consolation prize, the value of which is still being determined. In truth Barnes was Plan B. The player the Raptors really coveted (outside Davis) was all-star point guard Damian Lillard, who was taken sixth overall by Portland who owned New Jersey’s pick.
But the Raptors’ woes didn’t end there. According to Colangelo the Raptors had a favourite for the second-round pick, 37th overall in 2012. “Hate to tell you,” Colangelo said by text. “But Draymond Green was on our list one spot ahead of [Quincy Acy].”
Unfortunately Golden State was high on the Michigan State star also and took him 35th overall, two spots ahead of where the Raptors drafted Acy. Green had a triple-double in Game 6 and was runner-up as the league’s defensive player of the year. Acy has done well to stay in the league, but has yet to make an impact. Raptors fans can hope that Bruno Caboclo (taken by surprise at No. 20 last season) will one day emerge as the out-of-nowhere star that is a final piece on an elite roster.
History can break hundreds of ways, so it’s not always profitable to look at the past and play ‘what if’, but in the case of the Raptors and the Warriors the parallels and coincidences are too significant to ignore.
As frustrating as it all might seem from a distance (just the Hoffa/Iguodala piece alone) the Warriors are an interesting case for the Raptors to study. In the two years before becoming an 83-20 juggernaut the Warriors won 98 regular season games and nine playoff games. Those are better marks than the 95 and three the Raptors have managed the past two seasons, but not miles ahead, even if they were earned in a much tougher Western Conference.
Golden State turned itself into a championship team without the benefit of a top-3 lottery pick, and it was hardly perfect – no doubt the Warriors would love to have a redo at taking washout Epko Udoh at No. 6 in 2010, and the five-year, $80-million deal they gave to David Lee is looking pricy now that he’s out of the rotation.
Can the Raptors make a leap this season or next, even if it’s not to the extremes the Warriors did?
It will take some good fortune and tough decisions. The Warriors fired a very successful Mark Jackson as head coach last season, but were rewarded when Steve Kerr was able to get Golden State to play a more wide-open style and move the basketball with significantly greater efficiency.
Does Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri see Casey as being able to correct flaws the team exhibited as last season wore on? He’ll get this coming season to prove himself.
As well it’s worth noting that the Warriors moved themselves into the elite with some risky signings and bold trades involving their core. That is the stage the Raptors are now as Ujiri will have to be nimble to move his team from good to very good or beyond. The Warriors sending Monta Ellis to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut was one such move; signing Iguodala was another. Benching Lee in favour of Green was a third. As well, having another late-round draft find – Festus Ezili, taken 30th overall in 2012 – kept Bogut pinned to the bench in Games 5 and 6 as the Warriors cemented their place in history reflects well on management’s ability to fill out a roster.
The Raptors recent history runs remarkably parallel and sometimes touches the Warriors build up to their championship. They can only hope that there are more similarities than differences in the years to come.