A word to the wise: Really hoping for a particular NBA playoff matchup is a fool’s game. First, you’re probably not going to get it. Second, even if you do it might blow up in your face.
Take last year, for example. Leading up to the playoffs Toronto Raptors fans were ubiquitously crossing their fingers for a matchup with the Washington Wizards, and for seemingly good reason. Toronto was 3-0 versus Washington in 2014–15 and 6-1 dating back to 2013–14.
In that two-year stretch they were averaging 106.7 points and giving up 99.4. They were holding the Wizards to 43.9-percent shooting from the field and 28.5 percent from three. The Wizards were out-rebounding the Raptors, particularly on the offensive glass, but free-throw attempts were a wash.
But then the playoffs came. In the four-game sweep the Raptors averaged 93.3 points to Washington’s 110. While the Raptors’ shooting efficiency went into the tank, the Wizards shot 48.2 percent from the field and 44.3 from three-point land. They shot 30 more free throws in four games, and their rebounding edge held up just fine.
So the lessons here are simple: 1) We don’t know a whole lot; and 2) There’s only so much you can learn about potential playoff matchups from regular-season results. But, hey, that doesn’t mean we’re not going to try.
In reassessing last year’s sweep, it becomes clear it was way more about the Raptors than the Wizards. Toronto was 25th in defensive rating for the season, went 13-16 after the all-star break, and relied on tough shots from Lou Williams (31.4-percent shooting in the playoffs) and Greivis Vasquez (38 percent) for offence. That team was not going to beat anybody, and those of us who thought differently were dreaming.
This year’s Raptors have been 17-9 since the all-star break, they’re 11th in defensive rating and they’re locked into the East’s No. 2 seed. Therefore, the possibility of a playoff win actually exists this time around. With that, let’s get to who the Raptors may face in the first round, and how they stack up on a number of levels.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Record: 45-33 (currently sixth)
Post all-star record: 18-7
Offensive rating: 106.8 (9th of 30)
Defensive rating: 104.2 (9th of 30)
Starting five: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller
Key injuries: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out for the season; Nicolas Batum is currently out with a left knee strain, though it doesn’t look like a long-term injury; Al Jefferson has been playing off the bench since missing six weeks for knee surgery earlier in the season, and is also dealing with a right quad contusion
Season series: 2-1, Raptors
Matchup pros: This Charlotte team is in a very similar position to where the Raptors were a couple years back: a surprising team riding a hot streak into the playoffs, but lacking playoff experience, particularly as a group. The Hornets were an 11th-place team in the East last year, and will likely have a tough transition to playoff basketball. Though this matchup looks unlikely at this point given where the two teams sit in the standings, Kyle Lowry in particular would enter into it with confidence: He pulled himself out of a shooting slump in a matchup with Charlotte in early April, shooting 50 percent from the field and hitting three threes.
Matchup cons: Despite injury, the Hornets have been one of the league’s hottest teams since the all-star break, and own both a top-10 offence and top-10 defence. The Raptors have been vulnerable to penetrating guards this season, and Kemba Walker both fits that bill and has lit them up in the past. That said, he hasn’t done so entirely efficiently or consistently over the past three years, averaging 19 points, 4.6 assists and 4.4 rebounds on just 39-percent shooting.
INDIANA PACERS
Record: 42-36 (currently seventh)
Post all-star record: 14-11
Offensive rating: 104.3 (25th of 30)
Defensive rating: 102.9 (3rd of 30)
Starting five: George Hill, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Lavoy Allen, Ian Mahinmi
Key injuries: None
Season series: 2-1, Raptors
Matchup pros: The Pacers play at a fast pace, but are middle of the pack in field-goal shooting and three-point shooting, and don’t make up for it by getting to the line. The Raptors were lacking Jonas Valanciunas for two of their three games versus the Pacers this year, and still won twice. Also, in that one game he played against them, he absolutely demolished Indiana’s front line. He shot eight of 11 for 21 points, got to the line six times, and pulled in 15 rebounds in 32 minutes.
Matchup cons: Even after waving bye-bye to one-time defensive anchor Roy Hibbert, the Pacers remain one of the stingiest teams in the league. Also, despite shooting just 30 percent versus the Raptors this season, George has made an incredible comeback from injury and is still a bad man. He’s due, and if DeMarre Carroll isn’t back to top form the Raptors could really struggle to defend him one-on-one.
DETROIT PISTONS
Record: 42-37 (currently eighth)
Post all-star record: 15-10
Offensive rating: 106.0(13th of 30)
Defensive rating: 105.4 (12th of 30)
Starting five: Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, Andre Drummond
Key injuries: Jodie Meeks still has not played this season after undergoing surgery on his right foot in October
Season series: 2-1, Raptors
Matchup pros: Another team that lacks playoff experience. Four-fifths of their starting lineup has never seen the post-season, and the other fifth—Reggie Jackson—was a complementary piece when he made it there with OKC, not the man tasked with bringing home wins. Playoff pedigree or not, Drummond presents isssues for the Raptors with his shot-blocking and rebounding, but his 35.5-percent free-throw shooting makes him a huge liability down the stretch in games. Dwane Casey would not hesitate to break out hack-a-Drummond if it meant stealing a win.
Matchup cons: In the final Raptors-Pistons meeting of the season on Feb. 28, Detroit dominated for a 114–101 win, and all five starters shot 50 percent or better. So their confidence could be reasonably high coming into a seven-game playoff tilt. That said, Lowry was out for that game, so the Raptors wouldn’t be putting too much stock in it.
CHICAGO BULLS
Record: 39-39 (currently ninth)
Post all-star record: 12-14
Offensive rating: 104.3 (26th of 30)
Defensive rating: 106.0 (15th of 30)
Starting five: Doesn’t matter
Key injuries: Doesn’t matter (though they have dealt with as many injuries as anyone this season, Derrick Rose is constantly nursing something and Joakim Noah is out for the remainder)
Season series: 4-0, Bulls—the Raptors have not beaten Chicago since 2013
Matchup pros: N/A
Matchup cons: Put any four members of the 76ers’ second unit in Bulls uniforms for a night, don’t allow them any subs or water throughout the game, and they’d beat the Raptors by about 10. Make it three guys and they’d win by 15. Chicago has had less-than-ideal circumstances due to injury over the current winning streak versus Toronto, and it hasn’t hurt them at all. Derrick Rose missing and bench providing nothing? Jimmy Butler scores 40 in a half. Doug McDermott forced into major minutes? He goes off. Starters not getting it done? Hey, is that Tony Snell’s music? The possibility of the Bulls making the playoffs and getting into the seventh seed is low, but it is still terrifying.