One by one the doors closed on Kyle Lowry.
The Toronto Raptors point guard and the club’s premiere free agent had been waiting for this moment, the chance to cash in on three consecutive all-star seasons. He’d transformed his diet and his training, spent money on chefs and fitness professionals. Incorporated massage and Pilates.
All with the goal of convincing the NBA heading into his 12th season that he was still worth a significant long-term investment, or at least enough interest to force the best deal possible out of the Raptors, the team that can pay him more than any other.
But as the clock struck midnight, the leverage Lowry might have had going into his meeting with Raptors president Masai Ujiri and the rest of the club’s contingent – expected to visit with Lowry on Saturday in Orlando – had mostly vaporized.
His free agency potential took a blow early on when Chris Paul was traded to the Houston Rockets by the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Friday afternoon they took another hit when the Minnesota Timberwolves traded their point guard Ricky Rubio to the Utah Jazz, creating cap space soon acknowledged was going to be used to give a three-year, $55-million contract to Jeff Teague, formerly of the Indiana Pacers.
That move also meant that Jazz point guard George Hill was on the market, giving teams a cheaper option that Lowry, in theory.
Once free agency started officially at 12:01 Adrian Wojnarowski reported the San Antonio Spurs were going to retain their incumbent free agent point guard, Patty Mills with a four-year, $50-million deal and possibility of Lowry going to the Spurs was gone.
In very short order, the Raptors appear to be in the driver’s seat with respect to negotiating with their 31-year-old point guard. Things can change quickly, but there doesn’t seem to be any logical next landing spot for Lowry, particularly if his criteria are getting paid well and having a chance to win.
There have been conflicting reports since the season ended about how Lowry felt about coming back to Toronto. As far back as May, Marc Stein of ESPN reported Lowry was contemplating moving to the Western Conference. I had Western Conference executive tell me this week that Lowry wanted out of Toronto “like, yesterday.”
But Raptors officials have been emphatic that Lowry’s given every indication he’ll be happy to be back.
Now he may not have a choice. The question is what his price will be and how hard a bargain Ujiri will try to extract.
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Various NBA agents and executives I spoke with predicted Lowry’s peak value would be a three-year deal worth $90 million or four years and $100 million, with a floor of three years and $75 million.
It’s looking like it likely to be closer to the floor.
Which puts Ujiri in an interesting dilemma. With Lowry’s market cratering, does he try to play hard ball with his most valuable player?
It’s not Ujiri’s style. His tendency is to offer a fair number based what he can afford rather trying to beat the market by a dollar here or there. Lowry’s been a great soldier for the Raptors over the past four years and will need to be over a few more if Toronto is going to remain a contender in the Eastern Conference.
But it would seem Ujiri has options. He can front load a deal and go light on the term – maybe two years and $70 million with a lightly guaranteed third. Or he can up the dollar value and spread the salary out over four years.
However the deal gets done, the key will be signing a point guard who is grateful to be doubling his previous salary – at minimum – and is excited about another stint with Toronto. Otherwise, any amount will be overpayment.
Elsewhere the news seemed to keep favouring the Raptors, such as Paul George of the Indiana Pacers being traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, a shocker given reports the Boston Celtics had offered multiple draft picks at the trade deadline along with a mix of players.
That’s the Pacers problem, though. For the Raptors, seeing both George and Jimmy Butler of Chicago get traded to the Western Conference weakened two Eastern Conference teams while bolstering neither Boston or Cleveland at the top.
And while Boston was widely expected to be able to recruit Gordon Hayward from Utah, that hadn’t happened in the early hours of free agency, meaning Raptors fans could go to bed seeing the best teams in their conference stand still.
There were no reports of significant competition for big man free agent Serge Ibaka, who Toronto wants to play at centre next season. The Raptors were reportedly first to meet with free agent wing defender P.J. Tucker.
It’s early in the free agency period and any deals can’t be confirmed for seven days, but for the moment it appears that Toronto is going to be able to sign its best player at below what many predicted his market price might have been even a week ago. The Raptors also have the inside track on retaining both Ibaka and Tucker, all in what appears to be a weakening Eastern Conference.
