The NCAA Tournament begins in earnest Thursday, so we turned to ESPN college basketball broadcaster Dan Shulman – also one of our Toronto Blue Jays broadcasters here at Sportsnet – to give us the scoop on who he likes to win it all, Canadians in the tournament and what we should be looking out for as we prepare to descend into basketball lunacy.
Q: How many teams do you think can realistically win it?
I would think 8–10 can realistically win it. We’ve had Cinderellas in the past that have gotten to the Final Four. We’ve even gotten, every now and again, a real Cinderella win the national championship. But this year, in my estimation, I think 8-10 teams can win the national championship.
Q: What are those teams specifically?
In my mind I think all four No. 1s: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and Gonzaga all can win it.
Of the No. 2s, I think Duke, Louisville and Arizona can win it.
Kentucky is a very good team, but they’re so young I’m not sure I believe they can string together six consecutive games — so I put them a little outside in that group.
I think UCLA as a three-seed is the kind of team that, if they can get on a roll, they can win it. They’re the best offensive team in the country, and if they can guard a little bit I think they’ve got a chance.
And then I would’ve put Oregon in the group before Chris Boucher was injured, but with him hurt, I put Oregon and Kentucky just a little bit on the outside.
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Q: Do you think the committee got the seeding right?
A lot of this is opinion. There’s only so much the math and the analytics can do and at some point it’s the eye test. … I don’t think there’s such a thing as right or wrong — there are shades of grey here.
Baylor and Florida State, I’m not sure if they feel to me like three-seeds. You could make an argument Gonzaga deserves a one; you can make an argument Gonzaga shouldn’t have been a one. But to me that’s the fun of the sport.
I think the committee does a really good job trying to do this as fairly as they can. They’ve got a lot of things to consider like trying to separate teams in the same conferences as much as possible, trying to protect high seeds by having them play close to home. So it’s not just as simple, in my mind, as one through 68.
Q: Of the play-in-game teams, is there anyone from there that can make a run to the Final Four?
I think it’s very unlikely. Kansas State is a quality team and I think they maybe could win another game… [but] I don’t see them as a Final Four team.
A lot of the time when Cinderellas make the run to the Final Four it’s because somebody else in their region — one of the top seeds or two of the top seeds — lost and they had an easier road.
That’s not always the case. I don’t think George Mason had that, but sometimes it’s not just how well are you playing, but who are you playing and did somebody else knock off a top-seed in the nation?
Q: Is Wichita State deserving of their status as the sexy bracket buster this year?
I think they’re under-seeded. I don’t think they should’ve been a four or a five or anything, but I think they could’ve been a seven or an eight. They’ve got a very good chance to beat Dayton and if they play Kentucky I would give them a puncher’s chance [there], too.
Q: What about some other sleepers?
I think Middle Tennessee State as a 12, Winthrop as a 13, Vermont as a 13. Everybody loves Florida Gulf Coast as a 14. Bucknell (13-seed). Princeton (12-seed). UNC Wilmington (12-seed). I think a lot of the 12s and 13s are dangerous teams, and I think we’re gonna see fours and fives and sixes lose – a number of them. I think Rhode Island as an 11 is another example of a team that’s dangerous.
By the time it gets to the Elite Eight I think things will have really settled down… but in the first couple of rounds I think you’re gonna see a ton of what people consider to be upsets.
Q: Are there any teams you believe to be peaking at the right time?
Peaking at the right time is interesting because, historically, there’s not been a lot of correlation between how teams do in their conference tournaments and how they do in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke, obviously, is peaking at the right time. They just won four games in four days to win the ACC Tournament and they had to beat Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame to do it. That’s incredible. Whether that carries over, though, is anybody’s guess.
Michigan is another team. They were unbelievable the last month, and as an eight-seed in the Big 10 Tournament they went on and won four games there and survived a terrifying incident on their plane when they were trying to get to Washington.
Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament, so they’re peaking at the right time [as well].
Q: Kemba Walker led UConn in 2011 on a run that began from their conference tournament to the national title. Of those teams you listed who seem to have momentum now is there a player who could go on a run similar to Walker’s?
Michigan’s Derrick Walton, their point guard, is playing incredible basketball – just at a way higher level than he has played for most of his career. The last month or two he’s been one of the best players in the country.
For Duke, two guys: Luke Kennard has just been a star, rock solid all season long, and now Jayson Tatum. … Right now, he’s one of the five or 10 best players in the country. [He] is pretty much unstoppable right now.
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Q: With projected No. 1–overall pick Markelle Fultz not playing in the tournament, who in the dance could boost their stock and possibly challenge for that No. 1 spot with a good performance?
I think scouts have formed pretty good opinions on these guys already, but Lonzo Ball at UCLA, in my mind, is gonna be in the top three no matter what happens. Even if he plays poorly and they get knocked out in the first round I think he’s top three.
[But] if he leads them on a very long run and plays at a very high level I think he’s got a chance to elevate himself.
Tatum could keep going up a little bit more and getting closer to No. 1 — and maybe up to No. 1 — but I’m not sure it’s anybody beyond that.
Q: What about Josh Jackson at Kansas?
Josh Jackson is a great, great player. I would have him just behind the other three guys that I mentioned. He’s a great athlete, he’s got length, he profiles very well as an NBA player. He’s the kind of athlete that [the] NBA likes. I think they’d like to see his shot get a little bit better. But sure, he could elevate himself as well.
Q: As far as Canadian names to look out for, we already know about Oregon with Dillon Brooks, Dylan Ennis and the unfortunately injured Chris Boucher, but who else should we keep an eye on?
Iowa State has Naz Mitrou-Long, who’s a nice player, a nice contributor for them.
Kentucky has a guy named Mychal Mulder from Windsor who comes off the bench. He’s a very good shooter and has been playing better towards the end of the season than he was earlier.
Florida State’s starting point guard is Xavier Rathan-Mayes, a very good player, probably their third best player – really important player for them if they’re to have success.
Virginia has Marial Shayok, from Ottawa, who’s a good player. Sometimes starts, sometimes is the sixth man, but he plays and he’s a very nice player for them.
I’m not sure if there are quite as many high-level Canadians as we saw maybe two, three, four years ago, but there’s still some pretty good ones.
Q: What’s the toughest region to emerge out of? What’s the easiest?
In name value, the South — you have North Carolina as a one, Kentucky as a two and UCLA as a three. That’s really something. Then you’ve got Wichita State down there as the 10, a dangerous team lurking. So I think that’s a very tough region.
In terms of the easiest bracket… I think Arizona [in the West] might have the best draw to get to the Final Four of any of the top seeds in the country. I think Gonzaga’s really, really good. I think they’re Elite Eight/Final Four good. I just happen to think Arizona’s just a little bit better.
Q: What do you think we can expect to see and hear from LaVar Ball when the tournament tips off?
There’s no way for me to know, but he’s been incredibly outspoken already — more than any other dad I’ve ever seen — and, to Lonzo’s credit, he’s low-key about it and he keeps playing ball. … For UCLA that’s the most important thing. I think at some point, if I was Lonzo, I would say, “Hey Dad, can you tone it down just a little bit?” I don’t know if that’s happened behind the scenes, but [LaVar’s] made headlines like no other dad I’ve ever seen.
Q: What’s your Final Four, and who’s your champion?
My Final Four will be Villanova in the East, Arizona in the West, UCLA in the South and Louisville in the Midwest. And I will pick Arizona over UCLA in the championship game.