The NBA’s Draft Lottery goes down tonight, with 14 franchises hoping to beat the odds and rise up the draft board when the ping pong balls fall their way. It’s a night of triumph for some, heartbreak for others. And then there’s the Knicks, who, let’s face it, are probably screwed anyways.
Never short on controversy, the Draft Lottery has been an annual fixture since 1985, when the league instituted the lottery system as a means to combat tanking after watching the Houston Rockets do everything in their power to lose 14 of their last 17 games of the season, earning them the league’s worst record. And the right to draft Hakeem Olajuwon with the 1st overall pick (the tankiest moment came in game 81, when 38 year-old Elvin Hayes played 52 minutes of an overtime game after averaging just 12.3 mpg the rest of the year).
And the draft lottery hasn’t disappointed since, offering moments that altered the course of the league- the Knicks landing the top spot and drafted Patrick Ewing, the Memphis Grizzlies jumping to no.2 in ’03 only to have to surrender the pick to the Detroit Pistons (who, of course, used it to draft this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SH7zds-aGc) and, most recently, this time last year when the Cleveland Cavaliers ‘earned’ the top spot for the second straight season despite a 1.7% chance.
Now, a franchises fortunes hardly depend on what happens on lottery night- only eight out of 20 players drafted 1st overall went on to win Rookie of the Year- but let’s be honest, for a team on the rebuild it certainly helps.
So without further ado, here are the teams, players (and one owner’s daughter) with the most at stake at the 2015 Draft Lottery:
Minnesota Timberwolves [Odds of winning: 25%, Odds of Top-3 pick: 65%]: The NBA’s poorest record last season means the best shot at winning the lottery. Yet amazingly it’s been eleven years since the team with the best odds has actually won the thing. While the Timberwolves happen to have needs that can be met by a number of players available wherever they land (a wing companion for Wiggins and a big man to replace Nik Pekovic), dropping out of top two could cost them a much-coveted centre to add to their young core.
Los Angeles Lakers [Odds of winning: 11.9%, Odds of top-3 pick: 37.8%]: The stakes are simple for the Lakers, who will lose their pick if it lands outside the top 5. Originally acquired by Phoenix for Steve Nash before eventually finding its way to Philadelphia as part of the three-way deadline deal that saw Michael Carter-Williams move to Milwaukee and Brandon Knight to the Suns, the pick- and its lottery fate- has been a topic of conversation among NBA diehards for years. The Lakers are expected to be big spenders in the off-season, so their future success doesn’t exactly hinge on how the ping pong balls fall. Though with a terrible roster with plenty of needs a lucky night certainly won’t hurt, too.
Philadelphia 76ers [Odds of winning: 15.60%, Odds of top-3 pick: 46.93%]: Not only does the Lakers pick go to Philly if it’s #6 or lower, but the Sixers have an attractive lottery pick of their own, meaning that they can conceivably walk away form Tuesday’s festivities with two of the top six picks. What’s more, if the Miami Heat’s pick falls out of the top 10, then it, too, goes to the Sixers. Perfect for a club with (very) long-term plans hoping to accumulate as many young players and picks as possible in the hopes that one or more can actually pan out.
Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor: Two big men believed to be the top two prospects in the draft. If the top end of the lottery goes chalk and both Minnesota and New York finish atop the board, it means that one of these big men will land on a team building around a potentially generational young star and the luxury of a patient fan-base. The other will be thrown into the miserable dystopia that is the New York Knicks.
Emmanuel Mudiay: Mudiay followed in Brandon Jennings’ footsteps by spurning the NCAA (Mudiay had committed to play for Larry Brown at SMU, where he was expected to start) and instead spending the last year playing pro ball in China. Given that he’s far and away considered the top point guard prospect in the draft (many believe he would have been a lock for #1 overall had North American scouts had seen him more), he could see his fortunes fluctuate wildly based on team needs. If a team desperate for point guard help nabs the top spot will they have the cajones to pass on one of the two big men for Mudiay?
New York Knicks [Odds at winning: 19.9%, Odds at top-3 pick: 55.83%]. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks win the lottery and aren’t any better for it. With systematic issues from ownership all the way down to the coaching staff (but mainly ownership //www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/nba/free-association-raptors-podcast-episode-2/)
Oklahoma City Thunder [Odds at winning: 0.5%, Odds at top-3 pick: 1.82%]: Nobody saw a lottery appearance in the cards for the Thunder, but the one silver lining of an injury-plagued 2014-15 is the chance- however slight- for a miracle to land OKC a top prospect.
Mallory Edens: The daughter of Milwaukee Bucks owner Wes was a hit after representing the Bucks at last year’s lottery, where her team vaulted to 2nd overall in a top-heavy draft. Making a Presidential run, one lottery appearance at a time. [ed. note: Edens will not be at the lottery as the Bucks made the playoffs this season. Chalk it up to wishful thinking).
Sacramento Kings [Odds of winning: 6.3%, Odds of top-3 pick: 21.5%]: Those against the lottery system will point at teams like Sacramento who, mired in mismanagement and years and years of questionable personnel decisions, may still be rewarded for being a trainwreck should the ping pong balls cooperate.
The draft lottery is Tuesday night at 8:30 pm ET.
