As the NBA regular season winds down and the playoff push continues in full swing, it’s hard not to look ahead to the 2017 post-season.
The Raptors currently sit in fourth place in the East, one game back from the Washington Wizards. The Raps have the benefit of an easier schedule than Washington down the stretch and, save for a brutal run of defence in their loss to Charlotte on Wednesday night, have been playing great as of late. Still, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), it’s the Wizards who hold an ever-so-slight edge to wind up with the East’s third seed by the time the playoffs begin.
(Side note: Yesterday those same BPI numbers show the Raptors as having the best chance of any East team to advance to the NBA Finals and win it all, although today the Cleveland Cavaliers hold a 0.3 per cent lead).
The Cavaliers and Boston Celtics are in a race for first place, while the Wizards and Raptors fight for third and fourth (you can click here for more on how the seeding shakes out and potential consequences).
Here’s what the standings look like today:
As you can see the gap between the top-four teams is small, and the fourth-place Raptors are three games out of first place. But the one separating the next four teams is even smaller, with one only two games between seeds 5-8. It makes for a wide-range of potential first-round matchups for Toronto and as you’d expect some are way more favourable than others.
Here’s a look at Raptors’ potential first-round opponents, ranked in order of least to most threatening:
5. INDIANA PACERS
Currently in eighth spot, the Pacers gave the Raptors a run for their money in a gruelling seven-game first-round series in last year’s playoffs. But this season has been a decidedly different story, if the sample size is admittedly small. The Raptors held Indiana to just 91 points in their overpowering win a couple of weeks back, the second-lowest total of any opponent in the conference.
Like the Raptors, the Pacers like to play a slow pace (both teams are in the bottom 10 in the NBA) and protect the paint (since the all-star break, Toronto is third in opponent points in the paint and the Pacers are fifth). But unlike the Raptors, Indiana’s defence on the whole ranks in the bottom half of the NBA.
The Pacers are in their current playoff position more so because of how weak the rest of the conference is, and could even get bumped out of post-season play altogether with a cold spell down the stretch. Indy hasn’t won consecutive games since early February, and the atmosphere isn’t exactly sunny.
“There’s…no sense of urgency,” Paul George said of his team after Indiana’s one-point loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night, “no winning pride.” The Pacers lost again last night. The players around him have been inconsistent, and while George remains a dynamic force the addition of P.J. Tucker gives the Raptors a potential stopper to disrupt him in a way they weren’t able to last year.
4. ATLANTA HAWKS
Despite winning their season series versus the Raptors 2-1, the Hawks aren’t exactly world-beaters these days. Yes, they’ve won two straight but lost seven in a row before that.
The Hawks get to the free-throw line more than any team in the East and their style is a good fit in the playoffs, but they just don’t have the firepower to withstand a seven-game series, especially if Paul Millsap isn’t able to return at full strength following a “minor” knee surgery last week.
3. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
When Jabari Parker went down with another major knee injury earlier in the year it seemed the Bucks’ season was doomed. As it turned out, right around that time Khris Middleton returned to the lineup after his own long-term injury and helped transform the team as a natural depth chart came to form. The Bucks are getting contributions across the board, including from Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon. Even Tucker has no chance containing all-star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged more assists (seven) against the Raptors than all but one other team in the East.
The Bucks are young but unafraid and unintimidated. Here’s them pulling out a win to knock the Celtics off their perch at number one on Wednesday night:
2. CHICAGO BULLS
While they’ve been noted for their dysfunction and feuds between both players and management all season long, the Bulls are still within just a single game of a playoff spot and could rise as high as fifth if everything goes right for them (and wrong for the teams currently above them) down the stretch.
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The Raptors may have won their last matchup— infamously their first win versus the Bulls in 12 tries— but it took overtime to get it done, and Chicago’s physical interior play has notoriously been a problem for Toronto.
Chicago boasts a potentially dominant wing star in Jimmy Butler (who owned the Raptors in a February win, getting to the line 19 times and dishing 12 assists), but, like with Indiana’s George, newcomer P.J. Tucker was able to disrupt his rhythm in their most recent meeting earlier last week.
The bad blood from that game, however, would make for an intense and fun series, even if it’s one the Raptors may have a harder time getting through than some of the other potential first-round matchups.
1. MIAMI HEAT
The Heat have been on fire (sorry) since the all-star break, with the second-best win percentage in the conference (behind the Bucks and tied with the Raptors). Their unlikely crew of cast-offs have combined to form a tough, physical unit whose us-against-them mentality seems to be fuelling their play.
Despite getting blown out in their last matchup, Miami has played the Raptors tough this season, although the Raps are currently up 2-1 in the season series with one game still left to play against the Heat.
Ultimately, the Raptors likely have the Heat’s number (all of this is assuming Kyle Lowry is back). But this would have the makings of another gruelling and difficult long-distance series. With plenty of players still on the roster from last season’s seven-game second-round series, there’s bound to be a significant revenge factor at play here as well. What’s more, you can bet James Johnson will be looking to burn (again, sorry) his old club. He’s been a key part of Miami’s success with career-best numbers virtually across the board and seems to be peaking at the right time.
