A little over three years ago, DeMarre Carroll was struggling to establish himself in the NBA and a raw general manager gave him a chance with the Denver Nuggets.
It was short-lived — Carroll played only four games for Masai Ujiri before he was waived to make room for Wilson Chandler. But Ujiri saw something in the young forward and regretted having to send him on his way. For his part, Carroll never held it against him and appreciated Ujiri even giving him the opportunity.
Carroll used that foothold to make his way in the league, eventually earning a two-year, $5-million contract from the Atlanta Hawks ahead of the 2013-14 season which set the stage for the 28-year-old’s breakout this past year.
On Wednesday, Carroll and Ujiri reconnected and the circumstances say everything about the new economics of the NBA, the way skills are now valued and the Raptors’ place in it.
The Raptors general manager made one of the bigger splashes on the first day that teams could negotiate with free agents as he used a significant portion of Toronto’s space under the salary cap to sign the former Atlanta Hawks forward to a four-year deal worth $60 million.
Ujiri, assistant general manager Jeff Weltman and head coach Dwane Casey met with Carroll at his home in Atlanta Wednesday morning. While much notice had been given to the Raptors pursuing LaMarcus Aldridge — perhaps the highest profile free agent on the market — Carroll was their primary target.
The club was expected to meet with Aldridge in Los Angeles later on Wednesday. The news of that meeting helped keep their interest in Carroll under wraps, while also signalling to the rest of the free agent class that they were aiming high.
A deal with Aldridge would be difficult at this point given their commitment to Carroll – agreements that can’t be made official until July 9th – but having him signed also gives them a good story to tell Aldridge.
A more realistic possibility could be landing Wesley Matthews, another small forward and strong two-way player who had a good season with the Portland Trail Blazers before tearing his Achilles tendon. The Raptors were reported to be planning a meeting with Matthews Wednesday also. A report by USA Today’s Sam Amick suggested that the Raptors were considering a line-up featuring DeMar DeRozan at the two, Matthews at the three and Carroll at the four.
Regardless, they have already had a profitable free agent period by adding Carroll, a 6-foot-8 wing who impressed them with his defensive acumen, determination regarding continued improvement (most of his questions during their meeting were about the Raptors’ approach to player development) and an underdog mentality that they believe won’t change now that he’s finally earned his first taste of security.
In an instant, Carroll became the highest-paid player on his roster, surpassing all-stars Kyle Lowry (who has two years and $24 million left on his deal) and DeMar DeRozan (one more year at $9.5 million).
The deal represents a windfall day for Carroll who was earning $2.5 million as the only member of a 60-win Hawks starting line-up that wasn’t named to the Eastern Conference All-Star team in February.
For those wondering how a player who was an NBA journeyman can suddenly become the Raptors’ highest-paid player, it worked out this way:
Carroll dramatically improved and specifically re-invented himself as a three-point threat at precisely the moment in the NBA’s evolution that players of his status — long and athletic enough to guard two or three positions and skilled enough to spread the floor for on offence — have never been more valuable.
In the first 95 games of his NBA career, playing sporadically, he took just seven three pointers, making none, which perhaps wasn’t a great surprise since during a four-year college career split between Missouri and Vanderbilt he made just 27 shots from beyond the arc. But he worked on his shot while waiting for his chance.
He told Jared Zwerling in a feature for the Bleacher Report prior to his breakout 2014-15 season that his career changed when he finally got some game action for the Utah Jazz late in the 2011-12 season and he came off the bench to score 16 points in 18 minutes against the San Antonio Spurs, including 3-of-4 from deep.
When former Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer got the Atlanta job that summer, he pushed to sign Carroll, who proved a perfect fit for their spacing-based attack. This past season Carroll shot a career-best 39.5 per cent from beyond the arc and contributed the kind of clawing defence reflective of a player who has been on the outside looking in for most of his NBA career. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Carroll was the only wing player in the NBA with a True Shooting percentage of .603 or better and a defensive rating of 104 or less who had made at least 100 three pointers.
But still, $15 million a season for four years?
That’s purely a function of the new economic realities of the NBA. This time a year from the now, the league will be in the midst of a gold rush thanks to a $24-billion television contract that has already changed the way the league conducts business. With the league’s annual television revenue jumping to $2.6 billion from the current $900 million, the salary cap — expected to be set for $69 million this year — is projected to jump to $90 million for the 2016-17 season and a staggering $108 million for 2017-18.
The Raptors had room under the cap this summer — they have the potential to free up $23 million if free agent Lou Williams signs elsewhere or they renounce his rights, and if Amir Johnson signs with the Boston Celtics, as reported — but with all the money coming into the system a year from now, nearly every team in the league will have money to burn and more to spend a year later. Their time was now.
In that context, paying an elite role player like Carroll $15 million a year now makes more sense. So-called ‘bad’ contracts in the past were deals that prevented teams from adding talent because they clogged up their payroll. With more money coming on stream there is much less risk of that. Carroll’s contract won’t prevent the Raptors from making further moves in the future. As well, Carroll’s number will become more proportionate over time. By the time he’s heading into the final year of his deal, stars like LeBron James or Steph Curry will be earning more than $30 million a year.
And if things don’t work out? Trading a contract like Carroll’s won’t be difficult.
Moreover, using the money they have now only makes sense. A year from now it will be an even more heated market; there is no point hoarding cash if there is no one to spend it on.
What does Carroll’s signing mean for the rest of the Raptors’ plans? That’s another question. The team still wants to add depth at the point guard spot. While they have high hopes for rookie Delon Wright, they’re not entirely comfortable going into the season without some NBA experience behind Lowry. As well there is the question of what to do at power forward in addition to Patrick Patterson. Lou Williams is another wild card.
The Raptors do have some easy-to-digest contracts they can package — James Johnson, for one, and the rights to acquired-to-be-traded Luke Ridnour is another.
As always, it’s hard to predict exactly what Ujiri is going to do next, and the market is fluid. But the Raptors have a different story to tell now than they did yesterday, and it’s a good one.