After making it past the first round, the Raptors will be met by arguably the toughest matchup for them in the East.
Head to head Toronto held the season series advantage over Miami 3-1. The Raptors were a superior plus-4.3 per 100 possessions, good enough for sixth overall in the league in comparison to the Heat’s plus-2.6, which was 10th. It will be interesting to see if the Toronto’s advantage over the regular season holds true to form in the playoffs or if Miami’s superior postseason experience plays a factor. The two teams coming off game seven victories might very well be in for another seven game series in the conference semifinals.
Raptors key to the game 1: Rebounding Raptors
Toronto will have to be mindful about controlling the boards against one of the league’s best rebounders in Hassan Whiteside. If Miami plays small, as is expected, Toronto should be able to have the rebounding edge in the second straight series. Bismack Biyombo’s total rebound rate of 27.6% in round one was the best in league history according to basketball reference. Jonas Valanciunas was not far behind him at 25.9% which is the third best in playoff history. With Chris Bosh not on the Heat’s flight to Toronto and not expected to play in the series Toronto needs to continue to play big and grab boards.
Raptors key to the game 2: Backcourt back on track
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan won’t see as elite defense on the perimeter versus Miami as they did in round 1 against Indiana. Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade should not be able to take them out of their comfort zone the way George Hill and Paul George did over seven games. Lowry and DeRozan shot just 31.9 and 31.6 percent respectively from the field against Indiana.
Heat key to the game: Make Lowry a volume scorer
Kyle Lowry only scored 16.8 points on 15.5 shots against Miami this year. Lowry is going against a guard who knows his game well in Goran Dragic as the two were teammates in Houston and Dragic eventually wrestled the starting position away from Kyle. Miami has also guarded Lowry with bigger options in Gerald Green, Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson. Miami has done a great job at making Lowry shoot over length and stopping his dribble penetration lanes to the basket. The varied looks will have to continue to keep Lowry at bay for another series.
Raptors Players to watch: DeMar DeRozan
The player who was the biggest reason Toronto won game seven will be just as important in round two. DeMar DeRozan has performed well against Miami despite having one of the toughest matchups. This year he averaged 29.3 points against the Heat, an increase from 23.5 average. DeRozan’s true shooting percentage versus Miami was .587 in comparison .550 the rest of the season. A big reason why is because of his ability to get to the line, and his 10 free throw attempts versus Miami were up from his season rate of 8.4. Although Dwyane Wade will start the game on DeRozan he’ll see a steady diet of Luol Deng and Justise Winslow throughout the series.
Heat Player to watch: Joe Johnson
He’s been a Raptors killer throughout his career and nobody has forgotten his round one dominance over Toronto in 2014. So much so that Demarre Carroll was brought to Toronto for the sole purpose of handling big wing players like Joe Johnson, even though the former all-star is something of a shell of his former self. However, Johnson has found the fountain of youth since joining Miami and has taken his and their game to another level. The same was true when he was on the floor in round one. Johnson led the Heat with a plus 66 performance in round one versus Charlotte. With Dwyane Wade on the court beside him the Heat were even better with a plus 81 plus/minus rating. In Johnson’s one game as a member of the Heat against Toronto he scored 28 points. If Johnson was a member of the Heat for the entire season they’d be far better than a third seed.
KEY STAT: The Raptors are just the second team in NBA history to win a playoff series with their top two scorers shooting under 33%.