End-of-game situations were a key area of focus for Dwane Casey and the Raptors heading into this season, and there’s a pretty good reason for that.
Everybody saw what happened on the final play of 2013-14. Game seven against the Brooklyn Nets. Kyle Lowry driving through traffic. You know the rest.
What it amounted to was a heartbreaking one-point loss to end Toronto’s season. It also amounted to the kind of bitter motivation that drives you to get better.
All coaches work end-of-game situations into practice. As a player, they were my favourite part of practices—the situational games. Put two minutes on the clock and a score on the board, tell each team how many timeouts they have and which squad is shooting the bonus, and let them play. When it’s all done, debrief and go again. And again and again… and, in some cases, again.
That’s what Casey had Toronto doing in training camp, and it seems to have paid dividends early on this season. But before getting into that, there’s last year to consider.
The Raptors were 9-17 in 2013-14 in games that were within one possession (plus or minus three points) with one minute remaining in the fourth. That record translates to a .346 winning percentage in games featuring that specific situation. Only the Celtics, Pistons and Timberwolves performed worse.
In that crucial last minute of play, the Raptors shot 67.6 percent from the charity stripe (28th in the league and down from an overall mark of 78.2). They also turned the ball over 14 times total and committed 43 personal fouls, both league-leading marks. Yes, the officiating conspiracy theory comes into play here. I can already imagine people pointing out that the Raptors get called for picky touch fouls and face more than their share of no calls. Fair point, but there’s no getting around the fact that last year’s numbers were just plain terrible when it counted most.
This season, though, Toronto’s looked like a different team in the clutch.
Before last week’s losses to the Mavericks and Lakers, Toronto was 4-0 in games that were within one possession in the final minute. Yes, it’s early, and yes, they’re now 4-2, but it’s still a good sign that those four wins tie for the third-most in the NBA and the .667 winning percentage lands the Raptors in a tie for sixth.
And the other statistical categories? Heading into Los Angeles on Sunday, Toronto had not committed a turnover in the last minute of a one-possession game—they’ve now coughed up one. Fouls have still been an issue (they’ve notched seven), but that number was inflated by miscues in Sunday’s 129-122 OT loss. Crucially, they’re shooting 90.9 percent from the free-throw line, the fifth-best mark in the NBA.
So, what’s the difference?
Casey has done a nice job drawing up sets but, as always, he’s loath to take credit. “We’re just growing,” is all the coach will offer by way of explanation.
Evidence of that development can be found in the numbers put up by DeMar DeRozan (prior to his groin injury) and Kyle Lowry. Keep the game situation within a possession but up the time on the clock to three minutes and, by average, DeRozan is the NBA’s second leading scorer behind James Harden. His backcourt mate Lowry sits in a tie for fifth.
Nor does it hurt to have a player like Lou Williams, who helps create both space and looks for his teammates and is always a threat to drain a dagger at the horn.
Toronto got off to a good start this season, playing extremely well in close games. But the last two losses have been a reminder both of DeRozan’s value as a closer and of the long way left to go in the NBA season.
The fact is, there is a fine line between winning and losing at the highest level. In the early part of the season, the Raptors have stayed on the right side of it. Here’s hoping that continues.