It was just before the final buzzer, right around the time that Norm Powell sent a windmill to the already-battered gut of the Sixers and their fans, that the speculation ended and the Raptors first-round opponent finally became clear.
Elsewhere in the NBA a Pacers win and Pistons loss determined Toronto would face Indiana to open the 2016 NBA post-season.
The Raptors held a favourable 3-1 record against Indy this season, but as we learned last year, when an undefeated regular season against Washington proved to mean, well, nothing, there’s a lot more to the story.
Here’s a closer look at the Raptors first-round matchup with the Indiana Pacers:
Projected Starters
Toronto: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola, Jonas Valanciunas.
Indiana: George Hill, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Lavoy Allen, Ian Mahinmi.
Their four previous meetings in four sentences:
Season opener: Paul George struggles from the field (4/17) while a strong second half and 20+ points each from DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Jonas Valanciunas push the Raptors to the comfortable win.
Dec. 14: One of the more dispirited losses of the year for the Raps (a relative scarcity this season compared to most), the Pacers cruise to an easy 106-90 victory at home thanks in large part to Jordan Hill’s 20 points and 13 rebounds off the bench.
Mar. 17: Likely the closest game to what we can expect in the playoffs, the Raptors got a career night from Bismack Biyombo (25 rebounds) and a combined 56 points from DeRozan and Lowry in a hard-fought OT win.
Apr. 8: Fans left the Air Canada Centre hoping the Raptors would draw Indy in the first round after watching Toronto rest starters, play rookies Norm Powell and Delon Wright 67 combined minutes (they scored 27 and 19, respectively), and easily beat the Pacers, who were playing at full strength.
Marquee matchup #1
DeMar DeRozan vs. Paul George
With the exception of whichever Raptor matches up with Paul George, Toronto has the edge in every head-to-head position matchup. And while DeRozan and George may not actually wind up guarding one another, it’ll be a blast to watch two of the NBA’s most exciting star wing players go to work. Athleticism aside, their games are fairly dissimilar, but both players, drafted a year apart, have had similar career trajectories since joining the NBA and both have played together for USA Basketball.
Marquee Matchup #2
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Ian Mahinmi
Mahinmi was quietly stellar during the latter part of the season when he regained the minutes he briefly lost to rookie centre Myles Turner. Mahinmi’s stats may not stick out, but he is a rock solid, reliable prescence on both ends of the floor. You can say the same for Valanciunas, who, at just 23, showed steady growth throughout the season and should play a major factor in the Raptors’ outcome in the series given how much the frontcourt clash.
Marquee Matchup #3
Kyle Lowry vs. George Hill
If you’re getting the feeling that, wait a minute, these matchups don’t seem very marquee-like, well, you’re not wrong. But here we are. Lowry is leap years beyond his point guard counterpart terms in the three critical categories of talent, performance, and hair colour, but Hill has made a career out of being steady-if-unspectacular and should quietly be a driving force for the Pacers throughout the series.
Storyline #1
Stars playing like stars
A lot went wrong for the Raptors this time last year. But one of the biggest hurdles to turning the Wizards series around was that Washington had seemed to find effective ways to limit both Lowry and DeRozan. Contribute it to fatigue if you’d like—it certainly was a factor—and take solace in the fact that this year’s supporting cast has stepped up more consistently than last year’s. But it’s a simple concept: If both Lowry and DeRozan don’t perform up to their All-Star abilities, then the Raptors can kiss the series goodbye.
The bright side? In each matchup this season, both Lowry and DeRozan have been able to simultaneously carve up the Pacers, whose Hill/Monta Ellis backcourt aren’t exactly known for their shut-down D. Lowry in particular averaged 23.7 points against Indiana this season, second-most of any team in the East this season behind (interestingly enough) Cleveland.
Storyline #2:
Frontcourt clash
Both the Raptors and Pacers boast a steady and deep stable of bigs to unleash on one another, and it’s a big part of why both are two of the best defensive teams in the East.
For the Pacers, Mahinmi, Turner, Jordan Hill, Solomon Hill, and Lavoy Allen have all cause the Raptors problems in the past. Meanwhile, Dwane Casey will have to use his stable of Valanciunas, Biyombo, Patrick Patterson, and Luis Scola effectively given that if the Pacers have a shot to win, it’ll be in exploiting one of these matchups.
Storyline #3
The Curious Case of Paul George
Paul George, by FAR the Pacers best player, may be nursing a bruised ankle that could limit his effectiveness. But pretend he’s at full strength and it’ll be interesting to see how Casey opts to guard the All-NBA forward. Will he start Demarre Carroll, who was brought to Toronto specifically to help lock down players like George in moments like this but is still making his way back from a bad knee injury? Or will rookie 2nd round pick Norm Powell start and potentially force DeRozan to try to guard George? Or will Terrence Ross or James Johnson get the assignment? In summation: Casey has options.
Indiana’s X-Factor:
Monta Ellis: He’s one of the NBA’s premier heat check guys, a player who is absolutely capable of taking over a quarter and winning a game or two for the Pacers if his shot is falling. The Raptors will have to try to keep Ellis out of the paint, where he has a knack for finding ways to get to, and force him into bad shots that Ellis will most definitely oblige and fire at will.
Runner up: C.J. Miles. Deadly from beyond the arc and has been effective against the Raptors this season, averaging nearly 16 points per game.
Toronto’s X-Factor:
Terrence Ross: Tempted to go with Carroll here, who is a total wild card in the Raptors’ deck at the moment, but Ross has been terrific over the last little while and is averaged close to 13 points on 47% shooting off the bench during the season’s final eight games. He’ll get an opportunity to make a difference, it’s just a question of whether or not he takes advantage of it.