Needless to say, these are an important next two weeks for the Toronto Raptors. Depending on who you ask, the future direction of the franchise could be at stake, or just another in a natural evolution for the team and its players. We reached out to our basketball panel to weigh in on the burning questions facing the Toronto Raptors heading into the 2016 NBA Playoffs.
START OR SIT: DeMarre Carroll
Craig Battle, senior editor: Sit. I mean, he was brought in this past off-season for this very type of situation: a playoff matchup against a team with a big, high-scoring small forward. But he’s obviously still rounding into form and getting into game shape. If he starts the game on the bench, there’s a better chance he can finish it if need be.
Michael Grange, columnist: Start.
Eric Smith, voice of the Raptors: Start.
Dave Zarum, NBA editor: Start. As Battle said, this is why the Raptors brought him here— to guard elite wing players when the stakes are highest. If Carroll’s knee gives him problems and he seems a step slow, or isn’t in synch with the other four Raps on the floor after missing so much time, then Dwane Casey has more chess pieces waiting on the bench in Norm Powell, Terrence Ross, and James Johnson.
Blake Murphy, contributor: Start. Assuming he’s on a minutes limit, starting him maximizes those minutes by ensuring they’re opposite Paul George. Norman Powell’s been great, though, so if Dwane Casey opts to pick Carroll’s spots off the bench, that’s fine, too.
Steven Loung, associate editor: I’d start DeMarre simply because Casey has a set bench rotation that he likes to roll with that’s seen success all season long. There’s no point in trying to be too clever and tweaking the rotation for the very first game of the playoffs. Make adjustments after you’ve seen what your opponent is doing.
Dan Robson, senior writer: Sit, until needed. Powell has earned his spot.
Andrew and Tim Lockhart, voice of the people: Sit. Casey hates starting James Johnson unless he has to, but JJ has done an excellent job on Paul George this season. Expect to see DeMarre off the bench.
Donnovan Bennett, staff writer: Sit. He’s maxed out at 20 minutes a night so far since being back from injury. It’s not worth wasting him off of the opening tip when he might be needed in crunch time. Besides, right now Norman Powell is playing at a higher level than Carroll has at any point this season.
WHICH RAPTOR HAS THE MOST TO GAIN OR LOSE IN THE PLAYOFFS?
Smith: The whole team. Hate to give the stock answer but ya can’t afford to bow out 3 straight years.
Murphy: Bismack Biyombo. He exceeded expectations all season long and was one of the most improved players on the team, and he’s set for a substantial raise as a result. But if opponents can render him a liability at the offensive end (a legitimate concern) with the benefit of additional game-planning, that could serve to depress his value some.
Zarum: Carroll. Not financially, of course, because he’s locked in for the next few years. But his status around the NBA took a hit given all the time he missed (and how well the Raptors played in his absence). A strong outing and his reputation around the NBA as a borderline two-way star forward is reconciled.
Bennett: Dwane Casey. Go for a deep run and he’s talked about among the game’s elite coaches for his continual improvement with the Raptors. Lose and he might be looking for a job.
Jeff Simmons, staff writer: Lowry, to me, is the key for the Raptors’ playoff chances but the answer here is DeMar DeRozan. Despite all of his accomplishments, he is still underappreciated in Toronto and hasn’t been able to consistently take over games in either of his two previous playoff appearances. Also, he’s got a big contract negotiation coming up.
Robson: DeMar DeRozan. Is he a superstar? Like, really? It’s playoff time. We’ll see.
Battle: In terms of money, it’s Biyombo. If he plays as well as we saw him this season, he could be in line for a 300- or 400-percent raise this off-season. In terms of perception, it’s Carroll. These are the games he was brought in to play in, and how he fares will affect public opinion a ton—fairly or not.
Loung: Dwane Casey. The Raptors coach is in the interesting position of being in both positions. Despite the glowing endorsement from Masai Ujiri, if the Raptors fall in the first round again Casey’s seat will be hot with external pressure from both fans and the media being put on Ujiri to let him go.
The Lockharts: For a player who continued to be an enigma and received spotty minutes as a result, James Johnson has a huge role to play in the first round against Paul George— and potentially later against LeBron. But Johnson doesn’t seem to have the trust of Casey, and will likely walk in free agency regardless. Based on Terrence Ross’ poor playoff performances in the past, I think he has the most to gain by proving that he can perform in the playoffs.
IT’S THE FINAL MINUTE OF A CLOSE GAME…WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE ON THE FLOOR?
Grange: Lowry, Joseph, DeRozan, Patteron, JV.
Battle: Perfect world: Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, Patterson, Valanciunas. With that, you’ve got both defence and offence—rebounding, shooting and size. But given the uncertainty around Carroll, it’s not likely to happen. Due to injury this lineup played only 15.9 minutes together this season. But, hey, they were +45.5 points per 100 possessions in that quarter and a third, so it’s got legs!
Murphy: This depends on the opponent and whether they’re up or down, to a degree, but I think the team’s early-season closing group of Joseph-Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Valanciunas might be their best. Against a bigger lineup, Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Patterson-Valanciunas/Biyombo could be a deadly two-way combination, too.
Smith: On offence or defence? Lowry, DD, Carroll, Patterson, JV (maybe Biz if we’re talking defense—though JV has made solid strides). And I’d sub in Joseph if Carroll weren’t healthy.
Robson: Lowry, DeRozan, Carroll, Scola, Valanciunas.
Loung: Kyle Lowry. DeMar DeRozan. Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson. Jonas Valanciunas. I believe this 5-man unit would offers most offensive and defensive balance of any Raptors unit, while also being among its most talented. Lowry and DeRozan are obvious, and the reason why I’d want Joseph and Patterson on the floor is because they’re very versatile defenders who can both drill threes opening up more space for the big two guards. I’d actually like to get DeMarre Carroll in there over Valanciunas but his injury status is too shaky to have full confidence in him, so I’m going to roll the big-money centre who can possibly clean up a potential Lowry or DeRozan drive with an offensive rebound or putback.
HOW FAR DO YOU SEE THE RAPTORS GOING THIS POST-SEASON?
Grange: Eastern Conference Finals.
Smith: Based on history, anything beyond round one is gravy. Baby steps. But a long(er) run is entirely possible. The east could be up for grabs, so why not Toronto?
Zarum: Conference Finals. A second round matchup with Miami could put an end to that, but that’s the only scenario I see where the Raptors don’t make it to the third round. The Raptors have played (expected conference finalist) Cleveland well this season, but LeBron has taken his game to another level as of late.
Robson: Eastern Conference Finals or bust.
Loung: Given this team’s awful playoff record (they’ve only won one round ever and they’ve never won a seven-game series), I’m going to say they make it past the Pacers and then get bounced by whoever they face afterwards in six or seven games.
The Lockharts: They have a potentially tough second round matchup against a tough and veteran Heat team that could pose issues, but I see conference finals.
Bennett: NBA finals. Yes, it sounds ridiculous. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost in the first round. However, Toronto is the deepest and most consistent team in the East. Which is why they have the best record against top competition.
Battle: Second round. Objectively, this is the best Raptors team ever; they’re built differently and they play differently than the Raptors teams of the past that’ve flamed out so magnificently; they have the pieces to run an inconsistent Pacers team right off the floor. Subjectively, this franchise (not this team, mind you, but still…) has folded winning hands on many an occasion. And finally, on a related note: Optimists of the world, don’t move to Toronto. You’ll never have faith in anything again.
