Sports Illustrated released a projection of the 2015-16 NBA standings, using combined win shares to determine next seasons’ playoff seeding. And get this: the Toronto Raptors took top spot in the East.
It’s an inexact science, to be sure (as SI cops to in setting up the piece), but definitely an interesting way to evaluate NBA teams after most off-season moves have been made (major trades aside). Win shares are based on a statistical formula predicting how many wins a player contributes to his team. Those individual totals were then added together, and ranked accordingly.
Rookie win shares were estimated based on mean averages from players selected at that draft position over the years, but (and this likely explains why the Raptors seem to be punching slightly above their weight) for players who changed teams in the off-season, their win-share total from 2014-15 were simply transferred over to their new team.
The Raptors’ biggest addition, DeMarre Carroll, brings over a win share of 7 (for context, only 13 players reached double-digit win shares last season, led by James Harden’s 16.4), while point guard Cory Joseph’s total was 4.5. Surprisingly enough, reserve centre Bismack Biyombo had a win share total of four. Also, based on these projections, while they’d win the East, Toronto would still finish 7th in the West.
Anyways, here’s how the projected standings shake out:
Eastern Conference
1. Toronto Raptors (52.9 combined win shares)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (51.4)
3. Chicago Bulls (51.2)
4. Atlanta Hawks (50.8)
5. Boston Celtics (47.4)
6. Washington Wizards (44.3)
7. Charlotte Hornets (41.6)
8. Miami Heat (41.4)
9. Milwaukee Bucks (40.0)
10. Detroit Pistons (39.9)
11. Indiana Pacers (39.0)
12. Orlando Magic (31.6)
13. Brooklyn Nets (29.7)
14. New York Knicks (28.0)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (23.2)
Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors (63.0)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (61.9)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (60.0)
4. San Antonio Spurs (57.5)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (56.6)
6. Houston Rockets (53.2)
7. New Orleans Pelicans (45.7)
8. Phoenix Suns (41.3)
9. Dallas Mavericks (41.2)
10. Utah Jazz (41.2)
11. Portland Trail-Blazers (38.6)
12. Sacramento Kings (33.5)
13. Los Angeles Lakers (29.9)
14. Denver Nuggets (29.6)
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (23.5)
So, there’s that.
