Names on a white board, grouped and separated by horizontal lines.
That’s what it boils down to this time of year in the professional life of Dan Tolzman.
The names move around. Up, down, off the board altogether. Now, after months of evaluating and ranking players, the 2015 NBA Draft is just two days away, and the Raptors Director of Scouting knows he’s done his homework.
But that doesn’t mean he or his team are any closer to making a decision.
“Man, I wish I knew [who the Raptors are drafting],” says Tolzman, “I wish it was that easy. I think we’ll be debating that right up until our pick is on the board.”
The Raptors hold the 20th pick in Thursday’s draft, the second year in a row they’ve chosen from that position.
Toronto’s last pre-draft workout is scheduled for Tuesday, and after hosting over two dozen prospects in their practice facility over the last two weeks, the picture is at least becoming a little clearer. As Tolzman puts it, this time of year is “about crossing guys off more so than circling them.”
The Raptors enter this summer with plenty of needs. Though history hasn’t been kind to those who draft in the 20s, there should be a number of prospects who could help address some glaring weaknesses. During pre-draft workouts guards Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter impressed, and backcourt depth may be an issue with the potential departure of Lou Williams.
Yet much of the speculation (read: mock drafts) project the Raptors to select an athletic wing like Arizona’s Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a versatile forward like UCLA’s Kevin Looney, or even Lousiville’s Montrezl Harrell, a bruising undersized power forward.
If the Raptors decide to address their front court needs on Thursday they’re going to ensure any forward they draft can play alongside their promising young centre, Jonas Valanciunas. “Any big guy we’re looking at, it’s with the mindset of ‘How can this prospect play off of a guy like JV, who knows his spots and where he likes to be?’”
Though those spots could change as soon as next season. “JV has shown he can make a 15-18 foot jump shot,” says Tolzman, who is a guest on Tuesday’s episode of Free Association, Sportsnet’s weekly Raptors & NBA podcast, “and it’s just a matter of him getting that more consistently in his routine.”
Big men with range have become de rigueur in the NBA, and today’s league-wide trends are hardly lost on the Raptors.
Most recently, the NBA Finals showcased two of the league’s most voluminous and effective deep-shooting teams — Cleveland and Golden State — with the better shooting team (the Warriors) winning it all. Tolzman admits the evolution we saw take place is hard to ignore.
“From our standpoint the biggest trend for the NBA is the shooting,” he says. “For teams that have had success lately it seems like every player on the court can shoot, regardless of position or size. It’s key to take shooting into account [on Thursday].”
The Warriors’ three best shooters—Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green—were all Golden State draftees.
With a fairly deep pool of players available in this year’s draft, Tolzman and the Raptors will have their opportunity to land a potential rotation player at No.20.
Which brings us back to the white board.
On it Ujiri, Tolzman, and the staff have arranged (and rearranged) the names of each draft-eligible player grouped in tiers. A line separates each tier, “and above that line we’ll rank guys based on talent and team need. Below the line we’ll do the same.”
The idea, Tolzman says, is to only target players above a line, or in the highest tier possible, meaning don’t expect the Raptors to necessarily draft for need on Thursday.
“As players come off the board we’ll try not to go below a line to draft for need. If, say, we have four small forwards already and our best player available in Tier 2 is a small forward, we’re going to take that guy. We’re not going to reach into Tier 3 if we don’t need to.”
“All that work from the last months… We drew these lines to create our tiers after so many hours of conversation,” Tolzman says. “There’s a reason we have these guys in groups: Sometimes talent outweighs the team need. You keep building that depth because you never know what your roster will look like a few months from now. If you’re deep with talent it’ll work out.”
This is shaping up to be one of the least predictable drafts in years, its outcome in flux like names on a board. The Raptors are hoping their preparation will help keep them above the line.
Check out Sportsnet’s NBA Draft Central, your one-stop shop for draft rumours, news, opinion, and analysis.
