The Toronto Raptors put some playoff demons to bed Tuesday night, closing out the Milwaukee Bucks 92–89 in Game 6 to move on to the second round.
But before that they spent a good chunk of time heavy petting those same demons all up and down the floor of Milwaukee’s BMO Bradley Center.
With 5:16 left in the third quarter, DeMarre Carroll hit a three to put the Raptors up 71–46. According to Inpredictable‘s NBA calculator, that gave them a 98.9 per cent win probability.
Then a bunch of inexplicable things happened. And with 3:05 left in the fourth quarter Jason Terry hit a three of his own to put the Bucks up 80–78.
Yes, the Bucks got some help from the refs (Terry’s still probably holding some of DeMar DeRozan‘s hand, which he grabbed and yanked on a late-game drive even though no foul was called) and the Raptors prevailed, but that stretch deserves a second look.
Fourteen minutes and 11 seconds. Or two minutes longer than a full quarter. And the Raptors scored seven points while giving up 34.
For comparison, the Raptors’ worst offensive quarter of the season came Feb. 3 against the Orlando Magic when they scored 12 points.
Only three times in 1,824 franchise games — regular season and playoffs — have the Raptors managed to score fewer than seven over an entire quarter. But all three of those quarters popped up in November games that relatively few people watched.
So how did this happen? Well, I revisited the play-by-play so you don’t have to. Here’s what I found:
| Raptors | Bucks | |
|---|---|---|
| FGA | 14 | 22 |
| FGM | 2 | 11 |
| 3PA | 6 | 6 |
| 3PM | 0 | 4 |
| FTA | 5 | 15 |
| FTM | 3 | 7 |
| OREB | 6 | 9 |
| TO | 9 | 2 |
| FOUL | 10 | 3 |
That’s… not good. Thanks to nine turnovers — yes, two more turnovers than they had points in this stretch — the Raptors averaged just slightly less than a shot a minute.
The two field goals the Raptors got were layups from DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. Those two also accounted for Toronto’s three free-throw makes. That means the other seven guys who took the floor combined for six shots and no buckets.
What else is apparent from the chart: The Raptors got crushed on the glass, getting defensive rebounds pretty much only on free-throw misses (we’ll get to that in a second). The Bucks collected nine offensive boards, which resulted in a ton of extra field-goal attempts and seven second-chance points.
Toronto also committed 10 personal fouls (according to the refs, anyway) compared to three for Milwaukee (plus a technical), putting the Bucks on the line 15 times.
But despite all that, the Raptors righted the ship, scoring nine points in the final 3:05, which were highlighted by Cory Joseph‘s clutch corner three and DeRozan’s emphatic dunk (check out the 1:50 mark here):
And as bad as the chart above looks on the whole, it also shows one of the saving graces that contributed to the Raptors’ win. The Bucks hit just seven of those 15 free throw attempts. And the biggest culprit was Milwaukee’s biggest contributor: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
| FTA | FTM | |
|---|---|---|
| Antetokounmpo | 8 | 3 |
| Middleton | 3 | 1 |
| Monroe | 2 | 2 |
| Dellavedova | 2 | 1 |
Those four guys combined shot .781 from the line this season, and Antetokounmpo himself shot .770. So they left four or five points on the table in what ended up being a three-point game.
Antetokounmpo will probably carry that around with him this summer, knowing that had he made a few more freebies he could’ve earned his team a Game 7.
But, hey, that’s just free throws.