By now, you know that if it seems like we’ve been here before, it’s because we have.
The 2014 NBA Finals are a rematch of last season’s classic between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs. But, despite that familiarity, many of the questions that floated around the series last season either have yet to be resolved or have cropped up all over again. Chief among them: Which is the better team?
Heat fans can, of course, point to the banner hanging in American Airlines Arena and say they won it last season. But their counterparts in San Antonio will tell you that the Spurs gave it away in Game 6—up five with 28 seconds left before failing to nail it down, allowing Ray Allen’s game-tying three ball to send the game to overtime.
So, having climbed all the way back to the Finals with redemption on their minds, what do the Spurs have to do to get the job done this time around?
The game plan last season had San Antonio pack the paint and try to force LeBron James into settling for mid-range jump shots. And it worked—to a point.
During last season’s finals in games won by Miami, James shot 49.5 percent from the floor and 26.9 percent in the analytics gurus’ wasteland known as the mid-range area. In Heat losses, James hit at a 37.3 percent clip overall, including a woeful seven percent from mid-range. The King’s point per game drop-off from wins, 29.8, to losses, 19.3, is another telling stat, but in Game 7, he hit two big mid-range jumpers late in the game to seal the series.
So, will the Spurs employ the same tactics? To some degree, but not with the same regularity.
James has improved as a shooter and will not be consistently dared into taking 15- to 19-foot jumpers. If those shots are not going down, he will drive it or move the ball. He also has the capability to go into the post and score in one-on-one situations. If double teams materialize after a few scores, his unselfishness combined with his gravitational pull in the post will lead to easy shots for his teammates.
But the Spurs have other issues to deal with this June. Thanks to head coach Erik Spoelstra’s decision to take a page out of Gregg Popovich’s book and put Dwyane Wade on a maintenance program over the grinding regular season, D-Wade is healthy and playing well, something that couldn’t be said with regularity last time around. How will San Antonio deal with Rashard Lewis’s length and athleticism if he steps into the role of Mike Miller making long-range shots? Norris Cole, Mario Chalmers and, of course, Ray Allen are also outside threats.
When the Heat go to what Spoelstra likes to call “positionless” basketball—potentially throwing a lineup of Wade, James, Lewis, Allen and Chris Bosh on the floor—Popovich will have some decisions to make. Don’t be surprised if one of them is to keep Duncan on the floor and punish Miami’s defence on the inside, where the Spurs have a decided advantage.
There are concerns for the Heat as well. Miami’s defence is adept at creating turnovers by blitzing in screen-and-roll situations. The Spurs run a high volume of screen-and-roll plays and, if Tony Parker is healthy, how will the Heat adjust the coverage when Parker is involved as opposed to other players?
Parker can beat a double team on the dribble, and San Antonio’s ball movement can also pose problems to a rotating defense. You can bet Miami will stay close to outside shooters like Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner in those situations, while a Tiago Splitter, who doesn’t pose the same shooting threat, may allow the Heat to continue to pack the paint.
Danny Green did a great job in the early contests of last year’s Finals making long-range shots to stretch the Heat defence. There could potentially be more of that this season with Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli also in the mix off the San Antonio bench. Diaw is in much better shape, Canadian Cory Joseph has improved, Manu Ginobili is playing much better than he was at the same time last year and Kawhi Leonard, while still a rock-solid defender, has become more confident on the offensive end.
Miami is looking to show that last season was no fluke, while San Antonio searching for exoneration. It’s going to be a terrific final.