What a position the Toronto Raptors find themselves. Take one step back and the beauty of it is almost overhelming for long-suffering fans: the team that has traditionally treated the post-season as something painful that must be ended at the first opportunity has found joy in spring basketball.
On Saturday, the Raptors play the ever-sexy Heat in Miami in Game 3 of their second-round playoff series. Win and they go up 2-1 to gain control of their destiny as they try to make to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time.
But the post-season isn’t played out in the big picture. They aren’t abstract geopolitics. They’re a series of tiny turf wars, skirmishes and street fights between rival gangs intent of eradicating their opposition by any means necessary.
And the closer you get to the action, the more granular the picture, the cloud partially obscuring the sun in South Beach is the Raptors aren’t playing very well, and not just in this series. They’re 5-4 in the playoffs and have perhaps one game — Game 3 against Indiana, interestingly enough — when they could leave the arena and feel like they imposed their will for most of 48 minutes.
"We haven’t done a great job of executing. I don’t think we’ve played our best basketball," said Raptors head coach Dwane Casey as his team went through a light workout before flying to Miami on Friday for Game 3 Saturday afternoon. "I think we’re trying to execute the game plan, but as far as making plays, making shots, we haven’t hit on a high clip."
"Even in the Indiana series. We haven’t executed well offensively. Defensively, we’ve done some good things, but we can even be better. I don’t think we’ve played our best basketball. We’ve found ways to win, which we will take, and we’re excited about. But we can’t be satisfied with some of the plays we’re making offensively and defensively, and knowing, understanding we can do better."
There are too many examples to list. The Raptors are shooting 40.3 per cent from the floor, 27.3 per cent from three and just 73.6 per cent from the free-throw line in the playoffs, all significantly below their season-long marks. They were the fifth-rated offensive team in the NBA over 82 games, averaging 107 points per 100 possessions. Over the past nine they are averaging 97.3, a level of production that would rank 29th in the NBA in regular season between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Lakers.
As a snapshot, consider the last play in regulation of the Raptors’ wild and crazy OT win in Game 2. With 10 seconds left Kyle Lowry took the ball, surveyed the action in front of him and decided his best play was to walk the ball up and take a step-back three from four feet behind the arc.
As the point guard, Lowry has that right. It’s vital in the NBA, where every team knows every other team’s plays in the regular season, let alone the playoffs, that a team’s best players feel confident to change things up on the fly. Typically in that situation, Casey would call for some kind of screen on the ball, though with the Heat’s Udonis Haslem in the game it wouldn’t come from Jonas Valanciunas as Haslem is one of the best bigs in the league at corralling guards, especially in short-clock situations.
More likely it would be a screen from DeMar DeRozan or another wing player, just enough to create some movement and uncertainty in the defence.
Lowry chose to take things into his own hands, even though he’s shooting 16 per cent from three in the post-season.
Was it the right choice? No, given the outcome — his shot was never close. But Lowry had just hit two jumpers that had helped the Raptors keep control of the game. In the same situation against Cleveland in the regular season, Lowry’s buzzer-beating three from the same spot provided one of the most electric regular season moments in franchise history.
So the choice was understandable, if not advisable. And it was also entirely in keeping with how the Raptors have played for the past three seasons.
Lowry and DeRozan have been the fulcrum of everything the team has done in the best era the Raptors have ever had.
But as their post-season production continues to flatline — in 20 career playoff games in Toronto, Lowry is shooting 34.4 per cent from the field while DeRozan is at 36.5 — it’s becoming evident that something is going to have to give, at some point.
Either Lowry and DeRozan are going to figure out how to produce against the locked-in defences they face in the playoffs night after night, or they’re going to have to embrace that they can accomplish more by doing less.
If it’s the latter, the timing couldn’t be better. While earlier in the playoffs the Raptors were undone in part by the lack of effective options beyond their two stars, there are signs of an awakening throughout the roster.
Valanciunas was the Raptors’ most effective player in the fourth quarter. DeMarre Carroll is finding his legs after missing most of the regular season due to knee surgery — he’s shooting 40 per cent from three in his last six games. Terrence Ross has been excellent off the bench in both games against Miami, Cory Joseph may be the Raptors’ most consistent playoff performer, period, and Pat Patterson is due to breakout at anytime.
There are pieces in place; the Raptors just need to get them the ball.
The best teams in the NBA lean on the pass more than ever before, relying on ball movement to move defences in advance of open threes, but for the moment the Raptors and their stars are wedded to doing the bulk of the work themselves.
When Carroll played on the Atlanta Hawks last season he was on one of the most pass-happy teams in the NBA, while the Lowry-DeRozan Raptors have typically ranked near the bottom of the NBA in both passes and assists. Carroll says it’s been an adjustment for him to find his scoring opportunities on a team where two players control the play so extensively, but he’s figuring it out.
"People understand on [Atlanta], when you go down the court and know you’re going to touch the ball, it gives you some psychological connection," Carroll said. "It makes you feel you might get to shoot it or you might be able to be the person who assists it. It gives you some kind of feeling you’re connected on the offensive end, rather than just going down and running."
"Since I’ve been here, I see them playing towards passing the ball, moving, rhythm, but sometimes you get back into old habits," said Carroll. "If we can do that, move the ball, everyone’s a threat. I’m a threat, J.V.’s a threat, it’s going to open up for Kyle and DeMar and they won’t have to take those hard contested shots as much."
No one is staring a gift-horse in the mouth. One of the reasons the Raptors have been so successful this season is the clear definition of roles. Lowry and DeRozan have the pressure to produce and the freedom to do so, while the rest of lineup works hard to create as many opportunities for them as they can.
"They are our main scorers," says Valanciunas. "Everybody on the team has their own role. Theirs is scoring. My job is to set screens, to help them get open, get better shots."
"Do I want the ball more? No, I’m good."
But Casey recognizes the need for a more egalitarian approach. He sees the potential elsewhere in his lineup, which if utilized could only help take the load off his stars and put doubt in the minds of the defence, though he stops short of arguing that DeRozan and Lowry should be marginalized.
"They’re our go-to guys," said Casey. "They carried us all year. Both of them are going through a tough shooting slump right now. It’s tough to say to them, ‘Just stop shooting and start looking for everyone else.’"
"They have to explore, to see what their heat check is. They’re accountable for their shots and some of the tough shots they take," said Casey. "But again, we have to live with some of their tough shots as the game goes on just to see where their offence is because we need them to be there as a threat of scoring as much as anything else."
"But in the meantime we have DeMarre shooting the ball well, Terrence shooting the ball well, Patrick has the ability to shoot the ball so there are other options to go to."
The Raptors and their stars will eventually figure out how to used them. The question is if it will be this post-season — perhaps even in Game 3 — or sometime in the future, inspired by disappointments.