Something key to keep in mind amid all the furor over the Raptors selecting Bruno Caboclo at No. 20 last night is what a crap shoot the NBA Draft actually is. Sure, picks 20-30 will occasionally yield a Rajon Rondo (21st in 2006) or Serge Ibaka (24th in 2008), but that tends to happen, well, twice in a decade.
For a little slice of perspective, here’s a quick rundown of the solid NBA players picked between 20 and 30 over the last 10 years. Being (maybe just a bit) selective, 26 of the 110 late-first rounders taken over that span have paid dividends, a success rate of 23.6 percent. And if you’re looking for truly standout players, that number drops based on your definition.
Solid NBA players taken 20th-30th in the NBA Draft 2004-2013
2013
20 – Tony Snell – F – New Mexico
24 – Tim Hardaway Jr. – G – Michigan
2012
21 – Jared Sullinger – F – Ohio St.
26 – Miles Plumlee – F – Duke
2011
22 – Kenneth Faried – F – Morehead St.
24 – Reggie Jackson – G – Boston College
30 – Jimmy Butler – F – Marquette
2010
28 – Greivis Vasquez – G – Maryland
2009
21 – Darren Collison – G – UCLA
23 – Omri Casspi – F – Israel
26 – Taj Gibson – F – USC
27 – DeMarre Carroll – F – Mizzou
2008
21 – Ryan Anderson – F – California
24 – Serge Ibaka – F/C – Congo
25 – Nicolas Batum – F – France
2007
22 – Jared Dudley – F – Boston College
27 – Arron Afflalo – G – UCLA
28 – Tiago Splitter – C – Brazil
2006
21 – Rajon Rondo – G – Kentucky
24 – Kyle Lowry – G – Villanova
2005
21 – Nate Robinson – G – Washington
30 – David Lee – F – Florida
2004
20 – Jameer Nelson – G – Saint Joseph’s
25 – Tony Allen – G – Oklahoma State
26 – Kevin Martin – G – Western Carolina
31 – Anderson Varejao – F/C – Brazil (30th pick was forfeited by Wolves)
20-30 Starting Five
PG – Rajon Rondo
SG – Kyle Lowry
SF – Nicolas Batum
PF – David Lee
C – Serge Ibaka
Sure, none of them were quite the flier Caboclo was—having played college ball (Vasquez) or pro in Europe—but six of the 26 were international players, as well as two of the top-five.
Moral of the story, again: Crapshoot.