Blindly picking higher-seeded teams in the Sweet 16 has been safe in recent years.
Higher seeds went 5-3 straight up last year and 6-2 the year before for a two-year mark of 11-5 SU.
But betting blindly on higher seeds hasn’t been very safe. In fact, it has been a recipe for bankroll disaster.
“In those same 16 games where the higher seeds performed so admirably on the scoreboard, they performed horribly at the betting window,” explained Jack Randall, an analyst at OddsShark.com, which provides daily odds to sportsnet.ca. “Lower seeds went 12-4 ATS streak for a tidy profit.”
That trend creeps back to 2011 for a 17-7 ATS three-year total, according to the NCAA basketball database at OddsShark.com.
There are plenty of intriguing angles and one-sided trends for bracket pickers and Vegas bettors to consider. Virginia is an underdog to Michigan State, just the second time since 1996 that a top seed has been an underdog to a No. 4 seed.
It happened in 2005 and No. 4 Louisville defeated Washington.
That result mirrors a hazardous trend for No. 1 seeds in recent Sweet 16 action, where they have failed to cover the spread eight times in 10 games.
In the Midwest Region, aforementioned Louisville is 6-1 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1997 and 6-1 ATS in its past seven games overall. But they are just 2-8-1 ATS in 11 recent clashes against state rival Kentucky, the dangerous No. 8 seed.
Overall, Kentucky is riding 7-0 SU (6-0-1 ATS) streak in tournament games.
Check out Sweet 16 trends on every game, with NCAA lines in brackets courtesy of Bodog:
South Region trends
Florida 1 (-5) vs UCLA 4 (137)
Gators 3-0 SU and ATS vs Bruins in Madness since 2006 (all games OVER)
UCLA 4-1 SU and ATS past five games as underdogs
UCLA 1-7 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1997
Florida won six straight Sweet 16 games (4-2 ATS)
Dayton 11 (+3) vs Stanford 10 (133)
Just second time for 11 vs 10 matchup since 1996 (No. 11 VCU beat FSU in 2011)
Dayton 6-1 ATS past seven games
Dayton 8-3 ATS in 11 games as dog this season
Stanford 10-2 SU past dozen games as favorites
East Region trends
Michigan State 4 vs Virginia 1
Michigan State 6-1 ATS past seven games
Michigan State has played four straight UNDERs in Sweet 16 play
Spartans just 3-7 SU vs 1 seeds since 1996
Virginia 18-1 SU past 19 games overall
Iowa State (-1.5) 3 vs Connecticut 7 (146.5)
Iowa State won and covered six straight games
UNDER is 13-3 past 16 UConn games (but two OVERs in tournament)
UConn 7-2 ATS past nine tournament games
Iowa State 6-2 ATS past eight tournament games
West Region trends
Arizona 1 vs San Diego State 4
Arizona is 7-1 ATS past eight tournament games
Last year, No. 4 seeds went 2-1 SU against top seeds
UNDER is 6-0-1 in seven meetings of these teams since 2005
San Diego State 3-1 ATS vs Arizona since 2009 in preseason tournaments
Baylor 6 vs Wisconsin 2
Baylor is 10-3-1 ATS past 14 games overall
Wisconsin 1-4 SU past five trips to Sweet 16
Wisconsin 7-2 ATS past nine tournament games
2 seeds are 8-1 SU since 2002 vs 6 seeds
Midwest region trends
Kentucky 8 vs Louisville 4
Kentucky is 8-2-1 ATS past 11 games vs Louisville
11 of past 14 meetings played UNDER the total
Wildcats on 5-0 ATS run after an 0-5 ATS run
Louisville is 6-1 ATS past seven games
Louisville is 14-1 SU past 15 games as favorites
Kentucky on 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS run in tournament games
Louisville is 6-1 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1997
Tennessee 11 vs Michigan 2
2 seeds are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since 11 seeds since 2002
Michigan 9-1 SU past 10 games
Tennessee is 7-1 ATS past eight games overall
Michigan is 7-1 ATS past eight tournament games
