There are a seemingly infinite number of ways to approach the great tanking debate, case studies gold—24-carat and fool’s—to be found in the lottery. But with the 2013-14 regular season almost at its conclusion, one question stands out in particular: Which group would you rather your team fell into?
On one side, the group currently containing the likes of Philadelphia, Orlando and Utah: teams that knew they were lottery bound, accomplished that mission and will now wait to see how the lotto balls fall on May 20. On the other, the one that Toronto and Phoenix belong to: teams that thought they were lottery bound, but have instead managed to turn in successful seasons. The Raptors are a playoff team with a chance to win the Atlantic Division, the 76ers equalled the longest losing streak in NBA history and now have a chance to win the Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Exum/Randle sweepstakes. From which spot would you rather be building and moving forward?
There is, of course, no one answer. Even general managers have divergent views on where they would like to be. One current NBA GM said there is more certainty and clarity finding yourself in the lottery-bound boat. You have young pieces that you are working to develop and you have a chance to add more in the draft. Players like Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo or Philadelphia’s Michael Carter-Williams are all great building blocks. But in the NBA, young players don’t win, so patience is key as their development usually walks hand-in-hand with loss after loss.
Toronto and Phoenix have both seen young players grow into bona fide stars, though not necessarily on the current front office or coaching staff’s watch. DeMar DeRozan was an all star, Goran Dragic very well could have been and Eric Bledsoe was turning heads until he was stopped by an injury. Though DeRozan had to suffer through seasons of 22, 23 and 34 wins before this year’s individual and team success, this year’s breakthrough—like the one in Arizona—has raised expectations and reinvigorated the fan base. Once fans have seen the light go on, they don’t want it turned off.
So it’s better to get young players in place and build around them then, right?
Not necessarily.
A second GM holds the opposite view. Citing the common refrain, he points out that there are “no guarantees” a young player will develop into a breakout talent and points out that current assets in Phoenix and Toronto look better as established pieces on a winning team than they did as unproven potential. With your team further down the road to playoff success, trading when a player’s stock is at its highest comes into play, which allows for more informed decisions and, potentially, much greater returns. True, you can trade young assets and picks (like Boston did) but in that scenario, you have to find a trade partner willing to believe in the potential they possess—and you can’t be totally sure what you’re giving up.
Once your team has started to win and the expectations have suddenly been raised, patience almost becomes even more crucial. You have to decide what pieces fit your system and the way you want to play, and build around them. And while you are building, you always have to keep in mind the one element of success that simply can’t be quantified: chemistry.
(If you’ll excuse a brief side note: I wonder if the Indiana Pacers have irreparably destroyed their locker room chemistry by making moves at the trade deadline. With the signing of Andrew Bynum, what is going through Ian Mahinmi mind? How has Evan Turner’s arrival impacted Lance Stephenson? Despite the team’s past success without him, it sure appeared from the outside that Danny Granger was fine with his role even though he wasn’t always a major contributing factor on the floor. All of these elements—not to mention that the team’s lost three straight and six of their last 10—point to the dangers of tinkering with a good thing.)
Ask a free agent the question that kicked off this article and you’ll get an easy answer: Give me the winner.
The thinking is pretty easy to follow. He doesn’t know how long his career will last. If he goes to a rebuilding team and wins don’t follow, there could be a change in coaching or management and he could be traded—taking a decision that was once in his hands out of them. As our second GM pointed out, there are never any guarantees. But a winning team is always more attractive to a free agent who sees his father time gaining ground.
I’m with the free agent. I’ll take winning every time. Sure, we don’t know where all of the aforementioned teams will be in five years. But one thing is certain: Right now, fan bases in Phoenix and Toronto are being sold winning. In all of those lottery-bound cities, all they can sell is hope.