On the day after what felt like the biggest gut punch yet for a franchise that’s earned quite the reputation for being clobbered and left gasping for air, there are plenty of questions to be asked.
Those looking in the rearview mirror will undoubtedly ask, “What happened?” (or, simply, “Why?!”).
But for those keeping their eyes on the road ahead the question is a simple one without a simple answer: “Now what?”
The summer of 2015 is shaping up to be a critical one for the Toronto Raptors, whose future suddenly appears to be in limbo. Thankfully, heading forward this team has options—lots of ‘em—some decidedly more dramatic than others.
Just remember: Choose wisely. Because, as history shows, the decisions made now will reverberate for years.
Door No. 1: Do nothing and use the post-season experience to grow
Masai Ujiri has openly admitted that while attempting to gut the Raptors and rebuild in 2013, he stumbled into a winning formula. Over the last year, the Raptors went from a team once again headed for the scrap heap to a playoff contender built out of players and coaches left for dead but unwilling to accept their fates.
After watching his team develop an identity over the second half of last season, Ujiri’s plan changed along with his message. Heading into this post-season, the Raptors president and general manager preached the importance of the process. Over and over again, when asked about his goals for the 2015 playoffs, he spoke of the big picture and the need for his young core to gain playoff experience.
Looking back on NBA history, there are countless examples of teams and players—from West to Jordan to James—who had to make multiple playoff runs before they figured out how to win in the second season. So, option No. 1 is to stand pat, trust the process and bank on the team’s core to take their bumps, learn from them and come back stronger.
Spiritual forebear: 2004-05 Chicago Bulls
A four seed, Chicago lost in the first round to the fifth-seeded Wizards (too soon?). The Bulls kept their young core of good-but-not-great players (Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Tyson Chandler, Kirk Hinrich) and only added peripheral pieces—role players who, at most, made cameos in meaningful roles the following year (Michael Sweetney, Darius Songaila, Malik Allen). The Bulls were bounced in the first round in 2005-06, as well.
Likelihood on a scale of 1-10: 1. How can you watch the way the Raptors threw in the towel over the last three games and think there aren’t glaring problems to address?
Door No. 2: Axe the coach and bring in someone better equipped to handle this group
As Dwane Casey said after game four, throughout the second half of the season he tried to get his players to buy into becoming a better defensive club. He sold the notion of defensive accountability to this group harder than Shelley Levene trying to unload an acre of Rio Rancho, but, like Shelley, it seems nobody was willing to listen.
Either Casey couldn’t find the right pitch, his players weren’t interested in listening or they simply weren’t able to execute the game plan. Whichever way you slice it, there’s plenty of evidence that the coach and players weren’t on the same page, and, well, that’s a problem.
Option No. 2, then, is to declare the Dwane Casey Era over and hope a new coach can replicate the success Casey enjoyed with this club until recently.
Spiritual forebear: 1999-00 Toronto Raptors
With Butch Carter at the helm (and some help from a couple of kids named Vince and Tracy), the Raptors transformed themselves from a laughing stock to a young playoff contender forming an identity. But toward the end of that season Carter lost his team. There was dissension behind the scenes, and come playoff time the Raptors were rudderless.
Toronto was swept by the Knicks in the first round. That summer the team let Carter go, replacing him with Lenny Wilkens, a veteran coach who was an ideal fit to manage the team’s personalities to get the most out of the roster. The following season the Raptors made their most successful run to date, reaching the second round.
Likelihood: 8. Clearly the blame doesn’t solely belong on Casey’s shoulders—the game is won or lost based on the performance of players—but it’s always easier to can the coach. Given that Casey was already in the hot seat heading into the playoffs (despite the most successful regular season in team history), a four-game sweep in which his team appeared to give up on him didn’t exactly help his chances.
Door No. 3: Spend your money wisely
Given the way the Raps flamed out, it’s looking like more of a long shot that the likes of Amir Johnson and Lou Williams—two of the team’s more hefty expiring contracts—will be back. An argument could be made for keeping both—one was the heart and soul of the team for years, while the other emerged as an improbable-but-critical weapon—but any warm feelings were cryogenically frozen as the clock ran down on that demoralizing sweep.
With just under $30 million in expiring contracts coming off the books this summer, at least Ujiri isn’t strapped for cash moving forward. However, you’d have to imagine it’s unlikely that Toronto is poised to attract a big-name free agent. That’s a reality this team perpetually faces, and the last week didn’t do anything to help their cause.
But with a fairly deep FA pool and a number of franchises jockeying for the future, a little creativity could see Masai’s money go a long way.
Spiritual forebear: 2012-13 Golden State Warriors
As Steph Curry took a leap forward and helped carry the Warriors past the first round of the playoffs and into a hard-fought series with the San Antonio Spurs, the Warriors entered that summer with core players in place and a number of large expiring or soon-to-be expiring contracts at their disposal.
They let Jarrett Jack, who provided that team a spark similar to the one Williams provides this Raptors team, walk, and then orchestrated a three-team sign-and-trade deal that landed Andre Iguodala, who’s since played a pretty significant role in helping Golden State become the best team in basketball.
Likelihood: 7. Probably the most logical option, especially given Ujiri’s creativity in prior trades—this coupled with a coaching change is likely the safe bet.
Door No. 4: Blow it up
You just got swept in a series where your star backcourt duo’s biggest flaws were exposed on the biggest stage of the season. It brought into question just how far a team led by those two can go (for the record, I still believe the Raptors can win with both) and led many to imagine a DeMar- and/or Lowry-less Raptorland.
With both DeRozan and Lowry boasting all star-calbre ability on very attractive contracts, you’d have to imagine that putting either on the trade market would generate interest from around the NBA. Couple that with other solid trade pieces like Jonas Valanciunas (I’m sure there’s a team out there willing to give him more responsibility than the Raptors) and it seems possible to land a new star to take the keys.
This option journeys a little too deep into fantasyland for my liking, but for the hell of it consider this pipe dream: Lowry and Valanciunas for DeMarcus Cousins. At this point, who says no?
Spiritual forebear: 2010-11 New Orleans Hornets
NOLA pulled the trigger on a deal for Chris Paul after a first-round flameout (the writing was also on the wall in terms of CP3’s pending free agency), getting Eric Gordon (then projected to be a future star at his position), Al-Farouq Aminu and a first-round pick that was used to draft Austin Rivers from the Clippers.
So, yeah, dynamiting can be a huge risk. Had New Orleans not won the lottery and landed Anthony Davis the following year, the trade would’ve crippled the franchise.
Likelihood: 3. You can bet Ujiri will be actively discussing options along these lines, but the risk outweighs the potential reward.
The ideal path
The Raptors have a solid core in place and a real opportunity for continued growth from those pieces. Both DeRozan and Lowry enter this summer having learned some tough lessons after, and you can bank on Valanciunas improving over the summer as well. Patrick Patterson is an effective utility weapon and Greivis Vasquez, when utilized in the proper role, can have his moments, too.
With money to spend and a number of trade scenarios in play, the Raptors are well-positioned to move forward with their core and address the weaknesses Washington so blatantly exposed. A small forward to start in place of Terrence Ross would be a nice start, or, perhaps more glaringly, the rim-protecting big man who could have made all the difference in the Wizards series.
Lastly, a veteran (or two) with winning experience who can put his arm around DeRozan and Lowry the same way we saw Paul Pierce wrap up John Wall and Bradley Beal in the dying moments of game four.
In short, there are options. Which adventure will the Raptors choose?