Vincent Lamar Carter returns to Toronto Wednesday night for the 18th time since 2005, the year he decamped the city that adopted him for New Jersey.
All 17 previous appearances, have seen Carter soundly booed for the way he left town and symbolically crushing the franchise. But 2005 is almost a decade in the rearview, and at 37 years old Carter is a different person, contrite and apologetic for the way everything shook out.
As part of the 20th anniversary festivities going on this season, the Toronto Raptors will honour Carter after the first quarter, an attempt to repair a badly broken bridge. The media seems prepared to forgive Carter along with the franchise, and even Terrence Ross thinks it’s time for both sides to reconcile.
The goodwill towards Carter may change the conversation around him in the press, but at the end of the day it’s still the fans who decide whether or not Carter is truly deserving of forgiveness and restores his place in Raptors’ lore (limited though it may be).
So, when the player formerly known as “Air Canada” steps onto the floor tonight, how will you react?
Major Storyline 1: Who will get James Johnson’s minutes? With Landry Fields and Bruno Caboclo behind him on the depth chart, James Johnson’s severe ankle sprain is a major blow. Johnson has been Ross’s primary backup and Toronto’s best bench piece this season. So, who’s going to pick up the slack? Against a team as formidable as Memphis, Dwane Casey likely won’t have the luxury to experiment as much as he’d like.
Major Storyline 2: Tempo. Given their personnel, it’s no surprise that the Grizzlies have always ranked among the league’s slowest teams. Memphis is at its best when it’s able to slow down the opposition. If the Raptors want to pull this one out, they need to ensure they speed the pace of play up around their average of 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes (the 11th-fastest mark in the league).
Major Storyline 3: Turnover differential. Both the Raptors and Grizzlies are excellent at taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers. Toronto turns the ball over 11.3 times and forces 18.1 giveaways per game and Memphis coughs it up just 12.5 times, while forcing 17.3. Both clubs also convert those turnovers into points, with Toronto averaging 20.9 points per game off turnovers and Memphis 18.4. How well each team cares for the ball will factor heavily into the decision.
Marquee Player to Watch, Toronto: Kyle Lowry. The Raptors point guard is in for a tough matchup with Mike Conley, but he’s never been one to back down from a challenge. Combine that with the fact that he’s been playing some excellent ball of late (19.3 points, 6.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 49 percent shooting over his last three games) and the Raptors’ leader looks to be primed for a big evening.
Marquee Player to Watch, Memphis: Marc Gasol. Against Chicago, the Raptors were torn up by Pau Gasol on both ends of the floor. Pau’s younger brother Marc is an even stronger defender, a more physical offensive force and just as deadly a passer. He’s also playing alongside a more offensively adept big man in Zach Randolph. Good luck to the Raptors’ frontcourt.
Role Player Who Will Make a Difference, Toronto: Terrence Ross. The third-year man out of Washington will have no choice but to step up if Toronto wants to have a shot at victory. No James Johnson likely means a minutes increase for Ross and a chance to see just what he’s made of.
Role Player Who Will Make a Difference, Memphis: Courtney Lee. Acquired last January, Lee is a perfect fit for Memphis. A prototypical “3-and-D” player, he gives the Grizzlies’ starting lineup some extra punch without hurting the club’s defensive identity.
Last Season vs. Grizzlies: 2-0
Raptors Stats Leaders:
Points: DeMar DeRozan (21.2)
Rebounds: Jonas Valanciunas (8.0)
Assists: Kyle Lowry (5.8)
Grizzlies Stats Leaders:
Points: Marc Gasol (17.6)
Rebounds: Zach Randolph (11.2)
Assists: Mike Conley (6.0)
Verdict: The loss of Johnson is going to hurt a lot, and it will take time for Casey to figure out a new rotation that works—time the coach won’t have against a bruising Grizzlies team that’s playing arguably the best ball in the entire league right now. Those factors coupled with the inherent distraction Carter brings (limited on-court role or not) will make this game awfully tough for the Raptors to pull out.
