The Toronto Raptors will have at least four more years to find out if Jonas Valanciunas can help them in the fourth quarter. The big Lithuanian centre reached an agreement on an extension on Thursday.
The deal will kick-in for the 2016-17 season. The Raptors didn’t disclose the terms, though according to sources it’s worth $64 million over four years – with incentives that could push it to $70 million. The economics of the NBA suggest it represents a tidy bit of business for general manager Masai Ujiri, even if it temporarily makes Valanciunas the Raptors’ richest player.
At least I think it’s a good deal for the Raptors. It’s been so long that the Raptors have signed a contract with one of their own players or a free agent that you could say right away was a discount; it feels like there’s a catch somewhere. And most deals end up being pretty good anyway. DeMar DeRozan’s contract seemed ambitious when he signed his extension a few years back; he’s heading into an option year and suddenly his $9.5-million salary seems like one of the best bargains in the NBA.
Still it never seems right to say a team ‘won’ a deal that pays a 23-year-old $64 million. And similarly how can someone in Valanciunas’ position feel like he came cheaply?
But when put in the context of where NBA salaries seem to be heading, this deal looks like a win for the Raptors and Ujiri. The benefit for Valanciunas is that he knows he’ll never have to worry about money for the rest of his life, unless he drives a gold-plated Hummer packed with suitcases of cash into Lake Huron on one of his ice-fishing sojourns.
The deal – which had been simmering on the back burner for a few months – came together quickly. Just last week Valanciunas was in Lithuania with his national team, preparing for EuroBasket. He left camp abruptly, has been in Toronto since Monday and will go home with his future secure.
“I was happy,” he said, when asked about the offer he received. “There’s a great opportunity for me to stay in a good city. I love Toronto, I love to play here, it’s my second home. They take me as if I’m from here. It’s great. I just feel for the Raptors. I feel good about it. A contract is just a contract.”
Comparables?
A year ago the Orlando Magic signed Nikola Vucevic to a four-year extension for $48 million that kicks in this season against a $70-million salary cap. Tristan Thompson, who was taken No. 4 overall in 2011, one spot ahead of Valanciunas, turned down a four-year $52-million contract that would have been in its first year in 2015-16. He is now reportedly at an impasse with the Cavaliers, with Cleveland offering $80 million over five years and Thompson holding out for $95 million over five.
And looming in the distance is Enes Kanter, who was a restricted free agent this summer and got an offer sheet from the Portland Trail Blazers that Oklahoma City matched rather than lose him. The Thunder will now be paying a player more flawed than Valanciunas $70 million over four years beginning this season.
When you look at the third season of each of the four players, it’s not hard to make the case that Valanciunas had the best year. He’s had the highest shooting percentage, is the best free throw shooter, gets to the line just as much as Thompson and more than Vucevic, blocks the most shots and is just as good a rebounder as either. Valanciunas has the highest offensive rating and the second-best defensive rating.
What’s interesting is that Valanciunas signed the deal knowing that there was going to be an enormous amount of TV money flooding the league in the next two years. The salary cap is projected to jump to $90 million in 2015-16 and $108 million in 2016-17. In that context Valanciunas’ deal seems at least a little team friendly and could work out spectacularly, from a Raptors point of view.
His salary next year represents 17.7 per cent of the cap; in 2016-17 it would be 14.8 per cent. In the first year of his deal Vucevic was getting 17.8 per cent of the Magic’s cap. The deal Thompson was offered by Cleveland last year would have been 20 per cent of the cap.
So on that basis, the Raptors have done well. A lot can be made of Valanciunas’ flaws. Dwane Casey doesn’t trust him enough to play in the fourth quarter (as my colleague at Sportsnet Chris Black points out his 292 fourth-quarter minutes last season were last among Raptors starters, ninth on the team and 254th in the league) and his defensive issues beyond the point are well known and while he can command a double team, his 109 turnovers compared with 39 assists last season suggest he’s lost when they arrive.
But there are two strong arguments that suggest his new deal properly values his strengths, weaknesses and the market. The primary one is that he’s 23 and by all accounts a hard worker who is keen to improve. Even incremental development would make Valanciunas a more complete player in a hurry, and if he can get on the floor for 32 minutes a game his numbers will jump accordingly. He could easily average 15 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while shooting close to 60 per cent on a winning team. Nuances aside those are the kind of totals that all-star voters notice.
“I know we keep saying it, but JV is 23,” said Ujiri. “Give him some security and let him concentrate on playing basketball and winning. We feel he’s made great progress, he loves the city, he loves the fans and he loves everything about Toronto and that’s what we want to embrace here.”
And if he doesn’t really develop? If his face-up jump shot remains a last resort; if he counts more assists than turnovers and defensively the game still seems too fast for him at times a year or two from now?
Not to worry. In a league with a lot of money to spend this is a contract and a player that can easily be moved along if and when Ujiri decides his ceiling isn’t what everyone hopes.
In the meantime it’s a well-priced, low-risk bet that he’ll be a bargain well before that time ever comes.