There are only two routes ahead for the Toronto Raptors in their first-round series against the Washington Wizards.
They can make NBA history and become the first team to come back from being down 0-3 in a seven-game series. Or they get eliminated in Game 4 Sunday or shortly after that.
But eventually, win or lose, questions will need to be answered: What exactly do the Raptors have, what is worth keeping and how do you move forward from here?
For his part Lou Williams is pleading for calm. In his 10th year he’s one of the Raptors’ most veteran contributors, an old head on a team that doesn’t ooze with experience.
He’s not conceding the series is over, regardless of the lack of precedent for the Raptors to come back and win, but he is arguing for the need for perspective.
"It’s growing pains," he said of the Raptors’ struggles in the second half of the season and now in the playoffs. "This team accomplished so much, so fast, that the expectation level went super-high. We’ve been able to live up to some of it and some of it we really haven’t. Right now, being down 0-3, a lot of things are being said about what should happen, what should be done.
Well, what should happen, what should be done? Does he think a rapid playoff exit will bring sweeping change?
"If I had to take a guess I’d say no," he said. "I’d take 49 wins with a young core group, two all-stars and a sixth-man of the year and young guys like Terrence [Ross] and [Jonas Valancuinas] who are still finding their way and veteran guys like Pat [Patterson] and [Grieves Vasquez] coming off the bench, so I would say no."
Will the rude awakening the Wizards have provided give head coach Dwane Casey a better platform to get his team to buy in to the message he’s been preaching? Or does the message need a reboot?
"I think he can use this as a stepping stone to the culture he’s trying to build here and what he’s trying to teach the guys," said Williams, who is a pending free agent but wants to return to Toronto. "[But] I don’t really know what to say. I didn’t expect to be down 0-3."
For the players it’s too early to focus on the future, even though it’s likely going to get here in a hurry. As DeMar DeRozan said Saturday afternoon after a fitful sleep in the wake of a devastating loss Friday night, he’s not looking past Sunday.
"There’s still an opportunity for us to keep it going," he said. "I think everything that could go bad for us has gone bad for us in these three games and it’s got to turn for us at some point."
Another way to look at it is the Raptors have been victimized by the same flaws that were featured in their game all season, which is why it’s inevitable that the club’s 12-16 record since they started 37-17, and now against Washington, will serve a point of reference for Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri as he plots the future.
Among the issues:
The Raptors were one of the weakest rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 24th out of 30 in defensive rebound percentage, and they rank 12th among the 16 teams in the playoffs in the same category and 16th in overall rebounding efficiency.
The Raptors passed the ball less and with less efficiency than nearly every team in the NBA during the regular season and are last in the playoffs so far with just 255 passes a game and they rank 13th out of 16 teams with points from assists in the playoffs.
That lack of passing means tougher shots for those expected to take them. In the regular season Kyle Lowry, DeRozan and Williams were the only trio of teammates in the NBA to take at least 11 shots a game while shooting less than 42 percent from the field. Only 12 players in the entire league took at least 11 shots at that rate while playing at least 2,000 minutes this season and three of them were on Toronto.
The trend has continued against Washington as Lowry, DeRozan and Williams have taken 149 shots – compared to 122 for the rest of the team – and shot just 32.2 percent, compared to 51.6 for the remaining seven players.
The playoffs may be about adjustments and the Raptors have talked about the need for their primary scorers to make plays for their teammates, but it hasn’t happened yet and might not.
"I don’t mind us taking that many shots because it was in the flow of the game," said Lowry, in reference to the 51 shots he and DeRozan took in Game 3 (Williams took 11, collectively they shot 30.6 percent). "At the end of the day me, DeMar and Lou are the scorers and we have to be aggressive. No matter how many shots we take or not, they’re shots we normally take and we work on and our teammates are going to say nothing about it because if they shoot 20 times we aren’t going to say nothing about it. At the end of the day, if I make five more shots, no one says nothing."
Perhaps, but it’s been interesting to see the Wizards evolve in the playoffs. They’ve maintained their top-five defensive status they earned in the regular season but their offensive efficiency has improved – they are averaging 311 passes a game, up from 302 and their offensive rating has jumped from 101 to 106 – and they’ve played with a smaller lineup.
The Raptors, winners of all three games against the Wizards in the regular season look pretty much the same only they are passing even less – 281 per game in the regular season compared with 255 in the playoffs. The Raptors offensive rating of 108.1 was third best in the regular season and has cratered to 94 against the Wizards, 12th among the 16 playoff teams.
The difference – as Paul Pierce pointed after Game 3 – is that in the playoffs teams have two days to make game plans and only one team to prepare for. In the regular season teams simply aren’t as locked in. "They wing it," Pierce said.
That lack of focus is why his own Wizards stumbled in the second half of the season, playing 24-27 from Jan. 1 after starting the year 22-9.
"I always felt we were a better team than our record showed. We could’ve easily been a 50-win team," Pierce said after he scored 11 of his 18 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3, including three decisive triples. "We’re locked in, we’re more focused. Sometimes, you’re going to have your mental lapses. The young guys are young. A lot of them don’t have kids, so they have good times on the road. They go out, party sometimes. That’s the way it is. I was a young guy, did those things. Sometimes, you’re not locked in the whole 82."
But all of a sudden their focus is laser sharp, and the Raptors are the victims, unable to either find success with their methods from the regular season or make the alterations required to forge a new path.
Through three games the results remain the same, which could bring change sooner than later.