BY PETER HOUSTON – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
It’s that time of year where people start to wonder who is going to take home the NHL awards hardware. This year is a little different than others of course, because the awards will be handed out based on a much smaller sample size. Some will say the awards come with a bit of an asterisk, but in some cases the shorter season has cost some deserving players their candidacy rather than allowed lesser players to get their names in the conversation because they got hot/lucky.
If this were a full season, Sidney Crosby’s month-ish long absence likely wouldn’t cost him the Hart Trophy considering the way he’s playing. But this year it will. No player has ever missed 25 percent of their team’s games, failed to win the scoring title and gone on to win the Hart. With that in mind, here is who I think should win the players’ major awards, with the help of some advanced stats.
Hart: Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay
Runners-up: Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago, Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago
In the conversation: Alex Ovechkin, LW, Washington, Ryan Getzlaf, C, Anaheim, Eric Staal, C, Carolina.
For starters, I’m absolutely not a believer in the theory that major award winners need to be on playoff teams. I don’t think the quality of someone’s teammates should be used as an argument against them for an individual award. There is no way a single player, especially in hockey, can carry a non-playoff team to the playoffs by themselves. With that said, the Hart Trophy this year should go to Steven Stamkos (Crosby would have been a shoe-in if he stayed healthy). Stamkos has been leading the league all year in goal scoring (only recently was caught by Ovechkin) and leads the league in points. But unlike Ovechkin, 17 of his 25 goals have come at even strength (11 of Ovechkin’s 25 have been at even strength). Stamkos’ puck possession numbers are solid, with a Corsi Relative of 13.3.
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Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane have also had excellent seasons. Kane has seen a lot more time against opponent’s top lines (2nd on Chicago in Corsi Relative Quality of Competition) but has still managed to produce offensively. Toews on-ice shot differential (per 60 minutes) is plus-16.48. But Toews and Kane will obviously have a tougher time getting votes as teammates.
Norris: Zdeno Chara, Boston
Runners-up: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles, Kris Letang, Pittsburgh,
In the conversation: P.K. Subban, Montreal, Shea Weber, Nashville
A look at the traditional stats would seem to indicate Chara has taken a step back this year. His points per game production is at the lowest level of his career and his plus/minus is his lowest since 2007-08. But a look at the advanced stats puts that into context. Only once in the last five years has he started more shifts in the defensive zone. Despite his increased defensive responsibility, his on-ice shot differential is higher than four of the last five seasons. Really quite an impressive feat.
Drew Doughty has quietly been having a huge year with rookie D partner Jake Muzzin. They are one-two amongst defencemen in on-ice shot differential at plus-17.02 and plus-29.32.
P.K. Subban deserves a mention because he leads defenceman in scoring, but doesn’t play enough tough minutes for real consideration. His offensive numbers have benefited from 4:21 minutes of power play time a game, which is third in the NHL (behind teammate Andrei Markov and Kris Letang). Subban has recorded just 11 of his 32 points (34 percent) at even strength. For comparison’s sake, 21 of Letang’s 28 points (75 percent) have come at even strength.
Vezina: Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus
Runners-up: Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers, Tukka Rask, Boston
In the conversation: Cory Schneider, Vancouver
There aren’t really any advanced stats for goalies, but one that is starting to make rounds as the best indicator for performance in even strength save percentage. This year, Craig Anderson leads the way at 0.952 percent. But his body of work just won’t be big enough to be considered. Henrik Lundqvist comes in at first among goalies with 24-plus starts at 0.938 percent. Behind him are Sergei Bobrovsky, Marc-Andre Fleury and Cory Schneider at 0.933 percent. But when you factor in the team/defence that play in front of Bobrovsky compared to any of those other goalies, it’s hard to deny his season has been more impressive.
Calder: Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Florida
Runners-up: Jake Muzzin, D, Los Angeles, Brendan Gallagher, RW, Montreal
In the conversation: Jonas Brodin, D, Minnesota, Brandon Saad, LW, Chicago, Cory Conacher, LW, Ottawa.
Remember when Vladimir Tarasenko was a lock for Calder at the start of the year? That was a long time ago. The Calder race is as wide open and as hard to pick as ever, but I’ve got to go with Huberdeau. He leads all rookies in scoring (though not by much) but hasn’t benefited from having excellent linemates like Cory Conacher has. Huberdeau’s puck possession numbers are decent (plus-8.2 on-ice shot differential), but he benefits from starting 64.8 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. Brendan Gallagher’s on-ice shot differential is a bit better at plus-13.3, but he also starts 64.4 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone and faces easier competition (according to Corsi Rel QoC).
Jake Muzzin should undoubtedly get serious consideration since he leads all (not just rookie) defenceman in on-ice shot differential, by a wide margin. As mentioned earlier, he’s number one at plus-29.32 and Drew Doughty is number two at plus-17.02.
Selke: Pavel Datsyuk, C, Detroit
Runners-up: David Backes, C, St. Louis, Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago
In the conversation: Patrice Bergeron*, C, Boston, Mike Fisher, C, Nashville, Mikhail Grabovski, C, Toronto
*The only reason Bergeron has been demoted to “in the conversation” is because there’s a chance he could miss the rest of the regular season. If he comes back earlier than expected he could still win it.
The Selke might be the award where advanced stats have helped clarify the picture the most in recent years. Now we have numbers that tell us how good a player’s opposition is (how difficult his assignments are defensively), what end of the ice he starts most of his shifts and how well he controls possession considering all of these factors. Before these numbers became available, you’d have to watch A LOT of hockey to really have a valid opinion on the Selke.
According to the advanced stats, this is an easy award to pick. Datsyuk is third among NHL forwards in Corsi Rel QoC and has an on-ice shot differential of plus-11.61. He does start a relatively high amount of shifts in the offensive zone (52.8 percent) for a “defensive” forward, but his ability to drive possession despite his top notch competition outweighs that. Backes is three spots behind Datsyuk in Corsi Rel QoC and has posted a positive on-ice shot differential despite starting just 42.6 percent of his faceoffs in the offensive zone. He and Toews (60.8 percent in the faceoff circle, second in NHL) would also be deserving of the award.