THE NARRATIVE
For whatever reason, in the Greg Gary era, Toronto has always played Guelph close. Gryphons head coach Stu Lang says his worst career loss came at the hands of the pesky Varsity Blues in 2011, on national television no less. Well, Lang’s team is back at the scene of the crime, once again in Toronto and once again on national TV.
If Toronto wants to keep its playoff hopes alive, an upset win would go a long way. But for the Blues to take the next step on that path they are going to have to learn to play four consecutive quarters of football. The Gryphons, on the other hand, still have yet to put together one full quarter of consistent football. In years past Guelph has played up or down to their opponents. An oversight and loss to a dangerous Blues team will hamper a return campaign to the Yates Cup right before the defending champs — McMaster — roll into town.
Programming alert: Be sure to watch as Toronto hosts Guelph on Sportsnet 360 at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT | TV schedule
THE OFFENCES
This is a matchup of two young, innovative coordinators. Both Toronto offensive co-ordinator Tom Flaxman and Guelph offensive co-ordinator Todd Galloway cut their teeth in the AUS before being hired in recent years to help turn around programs on the big stage that is the OUA. Toronto throws the ball to run the ball while Guelph is considerably more balanced, using their run game early to set up their play-action-pass game late.
Early downs are generally passing situations for the Blues. With big targets like Paul De Pass and Alex Pierzchalski, Toronto pushes the ball downfield. They often attack the middle of the secondary with deep dig routes early, drawing safeties in tighter and holding them there. This allows the Blues to then attack vertically on the periphery knowing they’ll have one-on-one matchups with smaller corners. Toronto has yet to rush for 100 yards as a team, however—not a good time to be facing the second-best run defence in the country.
The biggest strength of the Guelph offense is their pre-snap motion. All five of their receivers can run a complement of routes and use their motion well to leverage defenders. So while most teams pick on their opposition’s weakest defenders with one or two players, Guelph can move their athletes around knowing that on any given snap the athlete who has the schematical advantage can do the job.
THE DEFENCES
Two of the most aggressive defensive coordinators in the CIS do battle this week. Both Laurier alums, Toronto’s Greg Knox and Guelph’s Kevin MacNeill love to blitz their linebackers early and often. Each does a great job of keeping an offence off its rhythm with constant blitzes, speeding up a quarterback’s process and internal clock, so expect lots of pressure regardless of down and distance from the end zone.
Toronto’s overall lack of depth shows up the most on their defence as they get worn down as the game goes on. Case in point, Toronto is -30 in the second half of games this year. One way Knox has worked to get his defence off the field for more rest is with an added emphasis on creating turnovers — they’ve already forced four fumbles so far this year. They’ve also put increased focus on read and recognition pre-snap. The Blues are well schooled on knowing what an offence is likely to do based on formation and motion. With that knowledge they are apt to checking into defences that give them the greatest chance at a stop.
Guelph’s defence plays like they’re piping heavy metal into their helmets for four quarters. They all run to the ball with reckless abandon and can tackle in space. Don’t be alarmed that only one Gryphon is among the league leaders in tackles—they don’t spend much time on the field. Having a veteran secondary the last couple years paid huge dividends as it allowed MacNeill to gamble even more with his front seven. With a revamped young secondary gaining his trust by the game, he might be tempted to unleash his linebackers even more so as the season goes on.
THE KEY MATCHUP
QB Chris Jugovic vs. LB John Rush
The captain of the offence vs. the captain of the defence. Toronto quarterback Chris Jugovic is in his first year as the full-time starter and will be playing in his first nationally televised game. How he manages all the ancillary stuff critical because he will be tasked with managing his five linemen on every snap—at times that might mean checking into max protection. The cat-and-mouse game will be against one of the best defenders in the CIS, middle linebacker John Rush. Rush’s main job is to keep Jugovic guessing, whether he’s blitzing or dropping on any given play. Rush and fellow linebacker Cam Walker are talented enough to switch roles, making it even more confusing for Jugovic to discern who the true middle linebacker is on any given play and delegate his protection scheme accordingly. Who is better at the line-of-scrimmage poker game will be the best indicator of which team will cash out with a win.