Getting excited over Jays farm system
BY 5THSTARTER - FAN FUEL BLOGGER
Over the weekend, I came across a Sports Illustrated article published in the 2009 offseason. I remembered the outrage that I had felt when the Blue Jays farm system was ranked 28 out of 30 teams (and the article noted, they would have ranked last if not for trading Scott Rolen to get Zack Stewart).
In re-reading the article though, I took note of the four highest ranked farm systems in 2009: the Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants. It's amazing that only three short years later, we can look at those rankings and see just how much impact those systems have had on their respective clubs.
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The Phillies have taken an aggressive approach in trading their high-ceiling talent for established veterans (Roy Halladay, Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt). The Rangers have made shrewd moves like trading Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton, and Justin Smoak for Cliff Lee. These types of moves have seen them reach consecutive World Series.
Meanwhile, the Rays have allowed their players to develop from within, allowing their ranked free agents to leave, and collecting additional draft picks. This has led to a virtuous cycle in Tampa, where the system kept replenishing itself. (note that with the new MLB collective bargaining agreement, they will be severely limited with this approach). The Giants have also allowed their highest-ceiling players to develop, and are perennial contenders in the NL West.
Overwhelmingly, as I review rankings from 2008-2010, the teams with the best farm systems continue to be contenders. This is true across all payroll ranges. The Yankees, despite their insanely high payroll, continue to draft and develop strongly. They also have traditionally exploited the international free agent market to keep their system well stocked.
The Red Sox used their budget to spend on overslot draft picks, and have a tremendous player development program. The other item to note is how many of these so-called "big budget" teams have developed their all-stars from within (Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels). Even this year's big spending Marlins have Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison.
The Blue Jays were consistently a top-five ranked system over the last two seasons. This past year, most had them in the top two or three. Whether management takes the approach of letting the players work their way into the Majors with the Jays, trades them for existing Major League talent, or some combination of both, this approach of building a winner is the most important one.
Sky Andrechuk, who now works for Sports Illustrated, did some incredible statistical research to quantify the impact of a top-ranked farm system on future wins at the Major League level.
He calculated that a top ranked farm system can add between three and six wins to a Major League team within three seasons. The reverse is also true, in that a poor farm system can subtract wins over the same time. The most exciting part is that the effect is cumulative, so the longer your farm system is highly ranked, the more wins it will continue to add.
Based on his math being extrapolated, the Jays should expect to add two to three wins this season, three to four the year following, and five to six wins by 2014. That projects to 94 wins in 2014, and 100 wins by 2015.
The Blue Jays have stated repeatedly that the Rangers model is the one they are following. Interesting to see just how closely they have followed so far. The Texas Rangers farm system was ranked 27th in 2008, and then went to first in 2009 and 2010. The Blue Jays were 28th in 2009, but were fourth and second in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
With a nucleus of good young talent already at the major league level, and a strong farm system, the Blue Jays are poised to compete. Both now, and for the long run. It may not be exciting or splashy for most fans, but you can't build a house without a solid foundation.
Related read:
More Baseball: Ranking Jays vs. the AL East
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