Prince headed for decline?

It sure would have been nice to match Prince Fielder up with Jose Bautista in the heart of the Blue Jays lineup.

Instead, the Blue Jays should at least be happy that the slugger ended up out of the division, signing a nine-year deal for a stunning $214 million with the Detroit Tigers.

Last year, Prince Fielder rebounded from a ‘down season’ in 2010 to blast 38 home runs with 120 RBI and a .299 average. The down season is in quotations since not many players in baseball can call 32 home runs with a .401 OBP and 94 runs scored a disappointing season.

Fielder is something of a finesse slugger. The 5’11, 275 lbs. home run hitter has remarkable bat control, only swinging and missing at 8 per cent of pitches. In comparison, Phillies slugger Ryan Howard swung and missed on 14 per cent of his pitches last season.

One remarkable statistic that illustrates a combination of bat control and plate discipline is Fielder’s statistics on 3-0 counts. Fielder saw 79 pitches and he only swung at eight of them. Of the three pitches that were put into play, two of them resulted in home runs. Swinging on that count is a high risk, high reward situation, and Fielder came out ahead.

Perhaps even more impressive is Fielder’s statistics when he was behind in the count 0-2. He still offered a respectable .274 average with two home runs in 62 at bats. He shortened his swing and remained dangerous at the plate.

Fielder’s move away from Milwaukee does carry some risk. There seems to be a negative pattern associated with some of the more recent major free agent signings.

Here’s a look at the last five hitters to sign with new teams while surpassing the $100 million threshold.

Carl Crawford (7 years, $142 million)

2009 with Tampa Bay – 110 runs, .307 AVG

2010 with Boston – 65 runs, .255 AVG

Jayson Werth (7 years, $126 million)

2009 with Philadelphia – 106 runs, .296 AVG

2010 with Washington – 69 runs, .232 AVG

Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 million)

2008 with Atlanta/Anaheim – 33 HR, .309 AVG

2009 with New York Yankees – 39 HR, .292 AVG

Carlos Lee (6 years, $100 million)

2006 with Texas – 37 HR, 102 runs

2007 with Houston – 32 HR, 93 runs

Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million)

2006 with Washington – 46 HR, 41 stolen bases

2007 with Chicago – 33 HR, 19 stolen bases

Last season we saw Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth sign major contracts and both registered as colossal busts in their first seasons with new teams.

Mark Teixeira was solid in his first season in pinstripes, but he has offered disappointing batting averages of .256 and .248 in the following two seasons and still has five years left on his deal.

Carlos Lee also offered production in his first season with his new contract, but after three fine seasons with a .300-plus average, his production has taken a major decline over the last two seasons and still is owed major bucks this season. Not ideal for a rebuilding organization.

Finally, Alfonso Soriano was decent in his first year at Wrigley, but his free-swinging ways only resulted in two solid seasons for the Cubbies. He has been a major bust over the last three years while earning $55 million and the Cubs still owe him $18 million in each of the next three seasons!

Sure, Prince Fielder would have had a heck of a presence in the Blue Jays lineup. He has been durable and productive through his first six full seasons in the big leagues and enters the season at just 27-years old. He should remain productive over the next few seasons. But what happens five years down the road when Fielder is likely due over $100 million over the next four years and he’s entering his mid-30s?

The Tigers did their math and figured its well worth the long-term investment as long as they have some pennants hanging in the outfield. It does make sense in the short-term, as the Tigers already have MVP Justin Verlander, all-star Miguel Cabrera, and a solid bullpen under contract. They need to win now and Fielder helps them accomplish this.

Blue Jays fans will walk away frustrated, but the franchise should be on solid footing. There are no outlandish contracts on the books and the average age is just 27-years-old with most players carrying plenty of upside.

By the way, a certain Ontario native by the name of Joey Votto becomes a free agent in 2013. Perhaps he’ll be interested in playing first base in Toronto.