Chris Nichols photo

Blog

 
 

Twitter: @Nichols_NHLPool/ Email: chris.nichols@sportsnet.rogers.com

The twitter feed has timely NHL & fantasy info with a few funnies along the way. Inane babble is generally kept to a minimum and known starting goalies will be posted leading up to the first games of the night, where possible.

Hockey Hearsay runs each weekday, 12 months a year; providing you with a mix of stories, quotes and more from around the hockey world. You can also submit your fantasy hockey question for a Hockey Hearsay blog via email. One per person, please and include your first name and hometown to represent!

BEFORE WE BEGIN...

We'll get to the playoff picks momentarily, but first let's take care of a few quick items:

Another successful regular season has come to an end, but remember that Hockey Hearsay blogs will continue to run every weekday throughout the playoffs and the summer. It's a place where hockey fans in general can come to see the latest info from around the NHL and where poolies can also stay on top of things and get a fantasy take when applicable.

The Twitter feed will also be updated as needed and it'll come in particularly handy when free agency rolls around. If you're already following then you know this, but I try to be judicious with the subjects and frequency of my tweets. As such, it should be safe to have my account set up as one whose tweets go directly to your phone so that you can stay on top of what's happening without being inundated by useless garbage. Honestly, there are some big names in the hockey media world who tweet way too much meaningless drivel. Know your role guys.

How did your fantasy season end up? Every single April one of my favourite parts of the blog is having you email me a reasonably brief recap of the highlights of your poolie campaign, win or lose. Which key moments defined your season? This is your chance to write for the blog. No essays, please, but there are also no defined word limits. Email them in to me and I'll include them in future Hockey Hearsay blogs in the reader submission sections.

Finally, thanks. Sincerely.

None of what I do - the countless hours seven days a week in-season spent watching, analyzing, writing about and number-crunching the sport we love - would matter if not for you reading the blog. Having a loyal following is, quite simply, the only reason I've been fortunate enough to do what I do for a living all of these years.

So thanks for reading. It means a lot.

AND NOW... THE PICKS.

In my office to help me with the selection process this morning, from left to right: Ouija board, Magic 8 Ball, four-leaf clover, horseshoe, dartboard, leprechaun and a Kardashian.

Post-lockout parity in the league has been outstanding for hockey fans across the league because so many more teams have the ability to not only make the playoffs, but also to make some noise in the post-season. Any team can honestly say they have a legitimate chance to win any given series. Truly. It's kind of a nightmare for playoff pools, but every year it always come down to going with your hunches and hoping for a bit of luck along the way.

Pick your Conference Finalists and centre the vast majority of your picks from those four teams. The more sure you are of one or two of those CF picks, the more players you should take from those squads. Playoff pools are not generally won by hedging your bets among too many teams.

Average six games per series and then use what you think will be each player's point-per-game ratio times how many series you think that team will win to figure out which guys are the most worthwhile for your roster. A first liner from a team being bounced in the first round may still be worth more than a third liner from a Conference Finals line-up, so keep that in mind. If said first liner's team pulls an upset, then suddenly you've obtained a more valuable pool asset.

Remember: Thursday's Eastern Playoff Pool Stats Pack and Friday's Western Playoff Pool Stats Pack should help you make your selections once you have your team choices nailed down.

Aside from the series picks, exclusive to my playoff blogs are what I like to call the "confidence ratio" with each pick. Basically it's just a percentage to gauge how firm I am on that team's chances of advancing to the next round. Everybody and their dog gives a pick and then the number of games they think will be played. That's fine, but a five-game series can still be a tremendous battle and it's more valuable for poolies to know how safe any given team's chances of advancing may be. If you can lock in a few teams with at least two or three rounds of play in them, that may be enough to win right there.

New to this year's edition of the picks: "What the hell am I talking aboot?"

A little slice of Canadiana in describing why I've picked that team to win out. I write and write and write all day and night throughout the season, but playoff picks come down to hunches and dumb luck. Short and sweet. Throw out everything else.

Again, I'm not Nostradamus. I've had some terrific picks over the years, but I'm just a fantasy geek who watches a lot of hockey. Write or wrong, I'll write what I believe. And I've been burned by playoff picks in the past, so take it all with a grain of salt.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS (1) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (8)

Series pick: New York Rangers

Confidence ratio: 51%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: Yep. I wrote it. Rangers will win.

I love Bruce Boudreau. Enjoyable HBO tirades aside, what he's done to turn this Caps team into a legitimate Cup threat by making them play defence-first puck has been tremendous as this season has progressed. They're playing playoff hockey, pure and simply. Washington is doing it the right way now. I still can't fathom why they didn't begin the year that way after last spring's ouster, but that's in the past now.

They're easily deeper offensively than the Rangers. The Caps are more than comfortable in tight games. If you're a regular of the blog then you also know I was on board with Washington's young goalies way before most outside of D.C., when many were calling for the Caps to sign a veteran free agent. I still believe Braden Holtby is the guy who will emerge as this team's No. 1 when all is said and done, but both Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov are tremendous talents who can get the job done this spring.

But there is one intangible that will, I believe, make the difference in this series: heart.

I'm not saying the Caps don't have it. I just think the Rangers have more of it. NYR has dealt - and dealt well - with adversity all season long and this match-up against Alex Ovechkin & Co. doesn't scare them. John Tortorella is a deserving Jack Adams candidate and those who haven't watched the Rangers much this year will see why in the next while. Plus, Henrik Lundqvist matches up well against this team.

There are upsets every playoff season and the Rangers just have that feel to them. If Marian Gaborik can get hot, the Rangers could upset the apple cart over the next two months too.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS (1) VS. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (8)

Series pick: Vancouver Canucks

Confidence ratio: 60%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: The Canucks have been a dominant team this season and the Hawks had to backdoor it into the post-season. Chicago has also been, comparatively, decimated roster-wise since winning the Cup last year.

But I'm still extremely uneasy about this series from Vancouver's standpoint. Chicago has been this team's Kryponite and as much as Canucks' fans may relish this match-up to face past demons... be careful what you wish for. These are the defending Stanley Cup champs.

That said, even without Manny Malhotra we're talking about a Vancouver team getting healthy on D at the right time. This has been their season. I'm not going to pick against the Canucks because I respect what they've done.

You know what though? Maybe I'm off-base, but I just don't get that feeling of confidence with the Canucks that I have with other teams.

I dunno. We'll see. I just know the Hawks are licking their chops right now and even though nobody on the team is stupid enough to say it in public, they think they have Vancouver's number.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (2) VS. BUFFALO SABRES (7)

Series pick: Philadelphia Flyers

Confidence ratio: 90%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: Due respect to the stud between the pipes at the other end and the way the Sabres have been playing. Philly also hasn't exactly been making its fanbase brimming with confidence of late and who knows who's going to be in net for this team on any given night? Chances are we'll see Sergei Bobrovsky, Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton before the final buzzer sounds on this team's season.

But wipe the slate clean and concentrate on what matters. The Flyers have Chris Pronger and incredible depth both up front and on D. I cannot imagine the Flyers will lose this series and they are one of the few teams I think are virtual locks to get in at least two rounds of action this spring.

SAN JOSE SHARKS (2) VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS (7)

Series pick: San Jose Sharks

Confidence ratio: 85%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: It's not as simple as this, but Anze Kopitar's injury pretty much killed any chances of a deep playoff run this spring. The Kings have been building momentum in recent seasons and the franchise remains headed in the right direction, but I think there is little chance they advance past the first round.

The Sharks have had plenty of playoff failures in the past and they've burned me in 'Lucy with Charlie Brown and the football' fashion on more than one occasion, but this is a good match-up for San Jose. This team has been playing hockey the right way over the past few months and they're both deep enough up front and comfortable in tight games to warrant a pick to win here. This is probably the best draw SJ could have received. It won't be a walk, but it will be a win.

BOSTON BRUINS (3) VS. MONTREAL CANADIENS (6)

Series pick: Boston Bruins

Confidence ratio: 70%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: I could certainly see Carey Price carrying his team to a series win and I'd love nothing more than for P.K. Subban to add to his growing legend. He's a reason to tune into any Habs game.

But the Bruins are bigger, stronger and, IMO, better equipped to win this series. Milan Lucic has all the elements to become a Conn Smythe winner and Tim Thomas is ridiculously competitive between the pipes. Montreal could win, but I don't believe they will.

DETROIT RED WINGS (3) VS. PHOENIX COYOTES (6)

Series pick: Detroit Red Wings

Confidence ratio: 75%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: Injuries abound. They've lost some ugly games of late. Phoenix is a really solid defensive team that remains significantly better than ever given credit for in many circles. But this Detroit Red Wings team is filled with a team that knows how to get it done in the post-season and while there is no proverbial "switch" that can be thrown, Mike Babcock and the vets will correct what needs to be corrected and they will win this series.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (4) VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (5)

Series pick: Pittsburgh Penguins

Confidence ratio: 65%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: The reasons the Pittsburgh Penguins were able to accumulate 106 points despite not having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for extended periods of time are the reasons why they should be able to get past Tampa Bay in the first round.

Dwayne Roloson could get hot. Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis are so much better offensively than what the Pens have available to them right now because Sidney Crosby's health remains a murky question mark. Throw in the fact that both Vincent Lecavalier and Simon Gagne are hot at the right time and the Lightning should give Pittsburgh all they can handle.

I just think Dan Bylsma (I cannot emphasize enough how much I respect his coaching ability) and the experience of the Pens will be the proverbial "X-Factor" in this series. TB is on the way up, but this will be a learning experience for the franchise.

ANAHEIM DUCKS (4) VS. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (5)

Series pick: Nashville Predators

Confidence ratio: 51%

What the hell am I talking aboot?: Yes, the Ducks have potentially the most physically imposing and dominant line in hockey with Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Dream up a trio to succeed in post-season hockey and you'd have a tough time topping them.

Yes, Perry's stretch run was a sight to behold.

Yes, it would also be a fairy tale scenario for Ray Emery - assuming he's good to go here - to backstop his team to a first round win after everything he's overcome.

Oh yeah... and then there's some senior citizen on the second line who is performing at a higher level than virtually every player in the league. Teemu Selanne is one talented dude.

It's not a strong feeling, per say, but I just think the Ducks have too many deficiencies when their scoring chances are limited and the Preds are a good team to do just that. Nashville has a strong defensive unit, Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable in net and Barry Trotz continues to turn water into wine with a less-than-stellar forward group. Sergei Kostitsyn has been one of the best - and least reported outside of Nashville - comeback stories of this season.

CONFERENCE FINALS, STANLEY CUP PICKS

In the East, I think the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins will emerge.

On the Western side of the equation, I believe it'll be the Vancouver Canucks and either San Jose Sharks or Detroit Red Wings. My first instinct is San Jose and I only resist because of how they've burned me in past years. Given that San Jose's first round path should be easier, I'm going with the Sharks. Ugh. I swear... THIS is the last time. :-)

Cup Finals: Flyers against the Canucks.

I'll take Philly. They can match Vancouver's depth on D and the Flyers are deeper offensively with three lines who can legitimately win a game. Roberto Luongo is clearly better in net than whoever Philadelphia ends up with by then, but being a goalie for the Flyers doesn't mean having to steal a game... it just means not being bad enough to cost the team the game. They'll get that. Chris Pronger will be the difference too, as he always is in the post-season.

Flyers hoist the Cup.

About

Chris Nichols photo
Chris Nichols

Remember that guy in the back of the class who had the newspaper stats sheets tucked away in his binder? That was me. You don’t even want to know how little I would have accomplished in school if I had today’s technology then.

I grew up loving all things...

 

Recent Blog Posts