Hockey Hearsay will resume next week.
PREAMBLE
It’s 2011. There are six billion hockey-related blogs on the web. You can find out anything you want via your phone in seconds.
So the term “sleeper” really hasn’t aptly applied to fantasy hockey for awhile now.
That said, it remains the shiny implement to attract the attention of those of us in pools who are looking for deals to get the edge on the competition. So, we’ve grouped players of all skill levels into sections that should help you find a few bargains at your draft.
Once Fantasy Week wraps up, you'll be able to continue to find fresh camp news via Hockey Hearsay and that'll give you some more ideas of players who are getting closer and closer to making the team and potentially actually making a difference in your pool.
Is it October yet?
IF I HAD TO PICK ONE GUY
Chris - One sleeper for '11-12. Who and why?
There are hopefully a lot of names you'll find helpful in today's blog and quite a few of whom I really believe can be difference-makers: but the one guy I've been talking about all summer is Ray Emery. The best this goalie received was a training camp tryout invite? Seriously? I get the concerns over the injury, given the nature of it. I also know there is a lot of quality goaltending out there and many teams have no spots. But come on... to get a guy of his calibre for basically free?
Why couldn’t he, if his hip is really fully healthy, make the Hawks as the back-up behind Corey Crawford and then use that legendary fiery temperament to scratch and claw his way past Crawford on the depth chart? Crawford is fine, don't get me wrong, but if healthy I'd take Emery over him any day of the week.
Emery clearly has the talent and his KHL experience and extreme injury woes have humbled him, so this could be one of the best comeback stories – and sleeper picks – that we’ve seen in awhile. Alexander Salak is no pushover, but Emery’s experience should win out.
If he makes the team then at worst he's the back-up on a really strong team in Chicago, which will make Emery one of a handful of back-ups worth owning in any format. And unlike the other back-ups in that situation, Emery might actually have a legit shot to steal the No. 1 gig if things go his way. Never know. I've just had this feeling about him for months that he's on his way back up the mountain.
RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME
Christian Ehrhoff was the big-name signee for the Buffalo Sabres over the summer and we all know about towering blueliner Tyler Myers, but Marc-Andre Gragnani just might work opposite Ehrhoff on PP1 and the timing couldn’t be much better for the youngster in that respect. Gragnani scored an impressive 1-6-7 in seven playoff starts after a late-season call-up and this is a kid who was downright dominant offensively from the back end in the AHL. Could be a true steal for you.
It’d be pretty surprising if Brian Campbell, who was most often a PP2 option with the Chicago Blackhawks last year, didn’t improve on that season’s 27 points and jump into the 40+ range without much difficulty. He should be Florida’s go-to, first unit power play threat on the back end and the 32-year old will be a strong choice in most cases for poolies to round out the defensive unit.
Sheldon Souray could return from exile to make the Dallas Stars. If so, he’ll likely be firing his cannon from the power play point alongside Alex Goligoski because there is no more Brad Richards in Texas. Remember that Souray is a PIM/ SOG contributor, so his upside is vast. He’s particularly worth a bench spot gamble for roto owners at the end of the draft. If he flames out so be it, but the potential is there.
Power forward Erik Cole left Carolina for Montreal over the summer, which creates a void alongside star centre Eric Staal. One candidate to fill the hole could be Anthony Stewart, who was cast aside by the Winnipeg Jets. He has all the tools and knows consistency will be his key to success. Alexei Ponikarovsky, who has met with varied success in past top six roles on other teams, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for that wing.
The Vancouver Canucks will have to make due without Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond for awhile, which leaves two prime spots open on the second line. Cody Hodgson (W/C), Marco Sturm (W) and Chris Higgins (W/C) seem likely to battle it out there, although in terms of expected production in October there will likely be as many equal or better options via free agency in an average 10-team pool. Hodgson had a great summer of training and has a bright future, but whether he can translate it right away or not remains to be seen. Sturm... meh. Higgins... meh. They can be effective, but neither really jumps out as a must-have. If Hodgson is ready for L2 duty now, I'd like to see Sturm-Hodgson-Samuelsson.
TAKING THE NEXT STEP
There are certain stages to any player’s offensive development and if you can pick out a few guys each year who are primed to take that next step right before they actually do it, then you’re scoring your fantasy roster some pretty big bonus points.
Evander Kane will be wearing Bobby Hull’s No. 9 as a member of the latest version of the Winnipeg Jets. While nobody expects Hull-like stats this season, Kane is someone standard league owners in particular should consider targeting as they fill out their wingers because of his ability to pile up near PIM-per-game averages. He shouldn’t have a problem passing the 50-point mark in his third NHL campaign and with another 230+ SOG, he’ll be a nice complementary player for most rosters. As things stand today, he's set to beat out a number of quality forwards in Thursday's forward rankings because of his strong peripherals and anticipated points boost.
Taylor Hall seemed to be making a legitimate late push for Calder Trophy honours before his ill-fated fight with Columbus forward Derek Dorsett. As the first overall pick in 2010, nobody doubts Hall will be a star in this league. It’s just a question of when. With 42 points in 65 GP in his rookie campaign, how good he looked as the season progressed and Edmonton’s increasingly-improving offensive outlook; targeting somewhere in the 60-65-point range for Hall seems fairly practical. Considering where he'll sit on the draft lists of most fantasy services, that should make him a good deal.
Flyers winger James van Riemsdyk signed a six-year, $25.5M contract extension at the end of August. With centres Mike Richards and Jeff Carter moved out over the summer in a massive overhaul of the team, JVR has been targeted as someone who is not only a key piece of the future – but also the present. The second overall pick from 2007 should see noticeable jumps in his point, power play point and SOG totals and hopefully he can build off his impressive playoff performance.
Sophomore Marcus Johansson is a defensively responsible pivot who is quite capable of anchoring the second line for the Caps, which would mean centring Alex Semin often. The Caps have a number of options with players who can slide into various roles though, including the versatile Brooks Laich. Regardless, Johansson is one to watch in the coming years because he's going to be a strong two-way guy. Bruce Boudreau is also giving him more looks with Alex Ovechkin and Mike Knuble at camp, which we saw some last year as well.
Victor Hedman is becoming more secure in his defensive game on the back end in Tampa Bay, which should lead to him utilizing his vast offensive skills. 35 points with a helpful PIM total wouldn’t be an unreasonable target. It’s also worth remembering that Marc-Andre Bergeron has the goods to fill that first power play unit role, but last year was a roller coaster for him. Time will tell there.
FRESH FACES
This is perhaps the most-often butchered part of the sleeper angle in fantasy sports. We get so excited, often just as fans, about the new talent arriving on the scene that their actual stats impact potential is overinflated and misinterpreted. #truth
As an example, we may see Swiss prospect Nino Niederreiter make the Isles out of camp this season. The team has purposely left holes open for its youth to give them a chance to seize a roster spot. Niederreiter has size, hands and can skate in today’s NHL. By all accounts, he projects to be a pretty sweet talent. Any deep keeper league owner would be lucky to have him.
But you know what? If he made the team and produced, say, 40 points, that’d be considered a strong rookie showing. Keeper leagues are one thing, but in single-season pools wouldn’t you rather take a flier on a veteran like Andrew Brunette in Chicago? Brunette just turned 38, but he’s quite likely to hit that same 40-point mark that Niederreiter could be a big question mark for and Brunette should be able to hold down a top-six role on a strong Chicago team with numerous stars on the top two lines. Brunette is a pretty decent bet to at least challenge for another 50+ point campaign, actually, with a helpful +/- too.
Just keep your expectations in check. That’s all.
By the way, as tweeted yesterday morning - Niederreiter was skating with John Tavares and Matt Moulson at camp. Worth keeping an eye on, but it's only one of many steps needed for him to be successful in fantasy this season.
As an Oilers fan, I'm tremendously excited to see if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can make the team. If so, he'll actually be in a position to produce points right off the bat. But there are so many more centres I'd chance for '11-12 pools. Give the kid time.
Same thing with Avalanche winger Gabriel Landeskog, who seems to have an excellent chance of sticking with the team this year. He should also have a legit shot of a role on the team where he can put up some points, but by and large there will almost always be a safer single season wing option than him this month until you get to the late rounds of the draft.
Can Adam Larsson stick with the Devils? His Swedish Elite League experience seems to enhance his chances, but the real D sleeper on this Devils team could be camp tryout Anton Stralman. He's virtually exactly what this team needs on the power play and has actual NHL years under his proverbial belt.
Ottawa fans are anxiously waiting to see if Mika Zibanejad or Stephane Da Costa can make the team and slot in as the second line centre, which would be an added bonus to either guy's immediate value... especially if Daniel Alfredsson ends up on that wing away from Jason Spezza. Also consider that 6-2 Swedish defenceman David Rundblad should stay with the Sens out of camp and he has loads of offensive potential. He’s more likely to be an in-season poolie pick-up than a draft asset though.
The trade of Brayden Schenn from the Los Angeles Kings to the Philadelphia Flyers over the summer in the Mike Richards deal seemingly cleared the way for Schenn to land the L3 C role in Philly, which means he’s potentially an injury away from more. Sean Couturier is also a possibility there, although seemingly less likely.
Flames fans have been patiently waiting for Mikael Backlund to earn a prominent role with the club and the youngster may be given every chance to begin the season between Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla on the first line. GM Jay Feaster has also openly stated his interest in acquiring someone from outside the organization for that role too though, if possible.
HIDDEN ON YOUR DRAFT LIST
A low games played total from ’10-11 could leave a number of quality assets pushed much further down on fantasy draft lists than they should be. Snap up a pair of those and it could be the equivalent to dealing your 10th and 11th round picks for fifth and sixth rounders without it costing you a single asset.
Let’s start with a few softballs... included in the obvious candidates for this category are Sidney Crosby (41 GP), Evgeni Malkin (43 GP), Zach Parise (13 GP) and Andrei Markov (7 GP).
Mark Streit missed all of ’10-11 thanks to a torn labrum and rotator cuff sustained in an intrasquad scrimmage last September. That could work out in your favour this time around though, depending on where he’s placed on your service’s draft list. Remember he produced seasons of 62, 56 and 49 points from the back end. His injury also provided a chance for Andrew MacDonald and Travis Hamonic (love his PIM) to shine last year.
Consider a player returning from concussion issues as high-risk in many ways, but Colorado’s Peter Mueller missed all of last season and few wing options in your draft will have anywhere NEAR his potential for points for how late he’ll be available. He’s absolutely worth a flier. Over the weekend he saw time on Matt Duchene's line with Milan Hejduk. If I hadn't chosen Emery for the "one guy", it might have been Mueller because of what he's capable of doing if he's healthy.
How about a front-line centre in Buffalo’s Derek Roy (35 GP), who should chip in 200+ SOG, could challenge for 25-30 PPP and should net at least 70 points ? The Sabres are a deeper team under Terry Pegula’s ownership and Roy’s value has only increased because of that fact.
Islanders winger Kyle Okposo (38 GP) signed a five-year, $14M deal in May and he missed the first half of last season because of a torn labrum. He has size, can score and is an too-often overlooked part of the Isles’ youth. He may be lined up again with Frans Nielsen and Michael Grabner and as Okposo enters his fourth full NHL campaign, he should at least be able to challenge his prior career best of 52 points. For where you’ll get him, that’s an outstanding bargain. T.J. Oshie (49 GP) of the St. Louis Blues missed 31 games with a broken left ankle last year and could net similarly strong returns.
Where does Czech legend Jaromir Jagr sit on your fantasy service’s draft list? He hasn’t been in the NHL for a few years, but even past his prime he’ll be a pretty solid option for any format (especially ones with PIM/ SOG) and he may be pushed way down in the rankings because of his overseas status. Never know. He should fare fairly well with the Flyers and he started camp alongside Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk.
Tomas Fleischmann (45 GP) was one of several horribly-overpaid Florida Panthers cap-floor signees this summer at $4.5M per over four years, but he’ll be given a prominent role and he has a lot of offensive talent. Apparently the pulmonary embolism concerns are a non-issue. Marek Zidlicky (46 GP) is the clear-cut top power play dog for the Minnesota Wild and while he’s prone to some extremely cold streaks, his overall 40+point stability and No. 1 PP QB role still make him a solid depth asset on any team.
Oilers fans are counting on both winger Ales Hemsky (47 GP) and defenceman Ryan Whitney (35 GP) to deliver the goods offensively. Both are known commodities, but are still well-positioned headed into this year’s draft. Remember too that Whitney, over the course of 19 games at the end of ’09-10 and his beginning to ’10-11, has produced 38 points in only 54 EDM starts from the back end with an impressive +20 rating on a last-place team.
Alexander Edler (51 GP) averaged more power play time per game than any Canuck last year, including the Sedins, so his lower GP total will hide his potential worth. With Christian Ehrhoff (another PP1 member) moving on to Buffalo and with Sami Salo’s health always a wind gust away from being adversely affected, both Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis should see positive bumps this season as well. Edler has also been dealing with two broken fingers over the summer, sustained in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals.
A healthy Max Pacioretty (37 GP) should, once again, be given every chance to produce in a top six role with the Habs and there should be little doubt the first round pick from 2007 will reach career highs across the board. In standard leagues he tends to carry some added PIM weight as well and remember that before the Chara mishap, Pacioretty had 17 points in the prior 20 games.
REBOUNDING STRONGLY
Both Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green were among the key Washington Capitals who suffered offensively last season. Bruce Boudreau is looking to implement a hybrid system this time around that combines last year’s defensively-responsible approach with past seasons of high-flying offence, which was the team’s way of overwhelming opponents and pleasing poolies. You won’t get Alex Ovechkin at any sort of discount at your draft, but both Backstrom and Green can likely be secured rounds later than they should be going. Green especially. He's healthy and hungry and he's going to make a strong showing in tomorrow's D rankings.
James Neal had a dismal 1-5-6 in 20 GP with the Pittsburgh Penguins after being dealt from the Dallas Stars, but remember that he never even had the opportunity to skate with Crosby or Malkin. At the very least, he should have Malkin or Jordan Staal (with whom he played a bit post-trade) this time around if Crosby can't play yet and Neal will have a full Dan Bylsma camp under his belt. As the coach said over the summer, it’s not like the kid forgot how to score. Neal will also be moved to the right side, which should enhance his value in leagues separating wings from centres instead of grouping all forwards together.
Erik Johnson has had a full summer to feed his motivation after having been dealt to the Colorado Avalanche in a blockbuster deal last February. The first overall pick from 2006 is a franchise blueliner and ’11-12 should be his first 40+point campaign. This time for real. Dion Phaneuf seemed to find his groove later in January (he had 7-12-19 in 29 GP over February and March with 29 PIM and 74 SOG) and for where you’re going to get him at the draft, he should be a deal for standard league owners needing a PIM/ SOG enhancement at a fairly low cost. Remember that he really only needs 35-40 points to pay off handsomely with those additional categories in play.
Vinny Prospal will be one of the candidates to play alongside Rick Nash and Jeff Carter in Columbus. R.J. Umberger continues to be that team’s version of duct tape (highest compliment reflecting his versatility and hard work) and will invariably be tested there as well.
Daniel Alfredsson may be 38, but he’s healthy now and for how far his stock has fallen since last season’s drop-off you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more productive winger where you’ll secure him at the draft. Sergei Gonchar was a complete and utter disappointment last season, to be sure, but he’s another Sens veteran where you need to take the whole career into perspective. Taking a late round flier on him could pay off as you’re looking to fill holes on your team.
LET’S ALSO TALK ABOUT
Ryan Shannon will be given a chance to fill the departed Simon Gagne's top-role in Tampa Bay. Steve Sullivan not only should have a quality role with the Pittsburgh Penguins on the top two lines, but Bylsma also wants to use him on the point of the first power play unit alongside Kris Letang instead of having a second defenceman there.
More often than not, Wojtek Wolski ends up disappointing poolies. It's just the way it's been. But entering camp, he's thought to be a decent bet to begin the season alongside Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik. Wolski "completely threw everything out the window and started over" with his off-season training. We'll see if it makes a difference in the results department.
Jacob Josefson got his feet wet in the NHL last year with 28 GP and, at least early on, he's looking like a potential fit as Ilya Kovalchuk's centre with Zach Parise taking Patrik Elias on the other top line. And speaking of the Devils, how sweet would it be if Petr Sykora - who played overseas last season (KHL/Czech) - made the Devils again and was reunited with Elias on L1? Parise - Elias- Sykora? That'll work. Sykora was tried out at centre Monday, where he hasn't really played in 15+ years. He went 2-18 on face-offs.
HAS TO BE BETTER
Dustin Penner is close to having the category named after him. His disappointing 2-4-6 in 19 GP with the Kings following his trade to Edmonton sparked what will go down as one of the greatest hockey quotes of all-time:
“Dustin is at the crossroads of his career,” GM Dean Lombardi wrote in an email to Sporting News. “He can choose to use his athletic ability to either become a dominant power forward in the National Hockey League or be a dominant number four hitter for the El Cid Lounge in a men’s softball league — the choice is his.”
Coach Terry Murray has said that Penner paid made the commitment to fitness this summer (he lost 10-15 pounds) and we’re going to see a better player this year. Penner should skate with Anze Kopitar (and Justin Williams), but Mike Richards is a great back-up plan. I like Penner to put up a decent comeback season for standard league poolies, as long as you're not reaching too early for him.
Nikita Filatov needed a fresh start. Period. Things weren’t working out with the Columbus Blue Jackets, but in Ottawa he’ll have a chance to thrive in a top six role. It's up to him to capitalize on the chance, but I think people have written him off way too early. Cam Barker’s steady decline on D could be halted with the Edmonton Oilers now and early in the season he may be worth adding via free agency if he can keep a steady power play presence, even on the second unit. Guillaume Latendresse heard the criticism from ownership and management and he worked hard this summer to get into camp trim and fit. Can he put last year’s injury woes behind him in what’s slated to begin as an L2 role with Matt Cullen and Pierre-Marc Bouchard? The trio looked strong on Sunday.
Michael Del Zotto received a whole lot of power play time in New York without producing much and was eventually demoted. If he can sneak onto the point with Brad Richards, be it sooner or later, MDZ’s value would certainly go up. He came into camp in good shape. Keep defenceman Tim Erixon's name's in mind too because he's making an impression early on in camp. Niclas Bergfors should be afforded the same opportunity with the Nashville Predators that Sergei Kostitsyn was and seized upon, which could mean a low-cost injury replacement on the wing for you sometime this season. Joffrey Lupul has been mostly unowned in fantasy for several years because he’s been battling injury issues. But he’s healthy and is slated to begin the season opposite Phil Kessel with Tim Connolly on Toronto’s first line. That doesn’t suck.
If the Flyers decide to go with additional toughness on the fourth line then Zac Rinaldo - he of the 331-PIM season in the AHL last year - could get a shot. It's also worth noting that David Clarkson - who has some offensive talent to go with his PIM - has been seeing time in New Jersey's camp with both top lines. He has done some of that in the past, but more often than not has ended up in an L3/L4 role.
Chris Nichols is Sportsnet.ca's fantasy hockey writer.










