It is almost certain Don Matthews will coach his final game for the Toronto Argonauts Thursday when they host the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

(Update as of Friday, Oct. 31 @ 1:45 p.m. ET: Don Matthews resigns as coach of the Toronto Argonauts.)

And on an even bigger scale, the game will also likely be the final one of his career.

A column I wrote Wednesday speculating Matthews’ future with team piqued the interest of someone who has been monitoring the situation and has fairly good insight into it.

The individual said I was "rather perceptive" and noted that my specific mention of the "tell-tale signs" Matthews would not be back were, in this person’s opinion, not incorrect. It led to the conclusion there is always a chance Matthews could be re-hired but more likely not.

Consider the tell-tale signs:

(1) Matthews, who was hired to replace Rich Stubler in September, has steadfastly refused to discuss his future beyond this season. Heading into Thursday’s tilt, Matthews is winless in the seven games since emerging from his retirement of almost two years. As private as Matthews is about his profession and personal business, leaving the question of his future unanswered speaks volumes. But by the same token, it’s not really Matthews’ place to politic for his job or even to be the one to make the announcement. It should be the Argos.

(2) An Argo spokesperson recently told Sportsnet.ca that the ownership will not make any comments on the team’s situation until after the regular season and more likely after the Grey Cup. That would suggest that either a decision hasn’t been made or, more likely, it wasn’t then or now the appropriate time to be talking about the team or anyone’s future. But look at what Hamilton did this week: they took the interim title off Marcel Bellefeuille to let everyone know, the public and, more importantly the players, he will back as coach. The team wanted to make the announcement before the players disbanded after their final game. Matthews and Argo general manager Adam Rita are scheduled to talk to the media tomorrow.

If it’s announced Matthews has been retained, it will put the issue of his future with the Argos to rest. To be sure, Rita will be asked the question. It’s either a yes or no. If there’s a comment such as "we haven’t decided that yet" it only creates a further mystery. If the team waits until after the Grey Cup to announce Matthews’ re-hiring it will seem rather odd. More likely it will mean there’s an individual in mind for the job, but can’t be hired at this time. So, you can safely ascertain it’s a position coach working for a club in the playoffs or it’s someone working in the U.S. Or maybe it’s someone committed to something – say a TV analyst – and the announcement cannot be made at this time.

(3) The Argos have become a lightning rod for controversy as whispers from inside the team and out point to a team which has lost its cohesion. Pinball Clemons, the Argos’ chief executive officer and the face of the franchise in the almost 20 years he has been associated with them, has come under attack for his supposed involvement in some controversial player moves this year.

Whether or not it’s true – and there’s some details which suggest he did initiate dialogue or add his opinion on some moves – it has put Clemons and the team in a bad position vis-à-vis public perception. No amount of explaining by Clemons or anyone else can change that now.

(4) If the Argos maintain the status quo, particularly after it went from a playoff position under Rich Stubler, who had a 4-6 record at the time of his firing, and failed to make it to the post-season under Matthews, it will be hard to market Matthews to the public. Understand that Matthews is usually full of pep, energy and bravado in places where he’s been hired, but being re-hired after this season could or would not allow him to boldly make predictions such as "anything less than a Grey Cup win is a failure."

That’s always been his motto upon being hired. To think the Argos could make that kind of turnaround with him in one year is not totally out of the picture. Matthews has done it before, but had distinct advantages in those situations. But now you can’t simply buy the best players or dispense them in a snap. The new salary management system, implemented on a trial basis in Matthews’ last year and implemented with enforceable penalties beginning last year makes head coaching harder than ever.

(5) If the Argos continue with Kerry Joseph as quarterback – and even if they don’t – what they need now is a bright offensive mind. Look what John Hufnagel has done in Calgary and Marc Trestman in Montreal. Stamps’ quarterback Henry Burris has had his best season in his seven seasons as a starter in the CFL. Als’ quarterback Anthony Calvillo has had an incredible comeback season. And keep in mind, Kent Austin guided the Roughriders to a Grey Cup win last year in his first year season as a head coach. In Austin’s first year as an offensive co-ordinator with the Argos in 2004, the team won the Grey Cup. The following season under Austin’s tutelage, veteran quarterback Damon Allen had the best season since joining the CFL in 1985.

Of the four new coaches who began this season, all have backgrounds on the offensive side of the ball. Six of the eight coaches who began the season had backgrounds in offence (the sole exception’s B.C.’s Wally Buono and Stubler).

And when Hamilton decided to make a head coaching switch, it chose an offensive co-ordinator. The Argos, meanwhile, opted for Matthews, whose background is defence and special teams, although he has always professed to employ an exciting offence.

Don Matthews didn’t forget how to coach. He came into a situation and had to make changes – or the people who brought him in thought changes had to be made. It was deemed that staying with Stubler could not work anymore. And while the organization didn’t actively look for a replacement, Matthews’ availability, eagerness and good health made him the best choice – the only choice – to produce a sudden switch. In some ways it was considered a brilliant move, bringing the top-winning head coach in CFL history out of retirement and explaining why he left the Montreal Alouettes so mysteriously two years ago.

His longtime friend Rita, who had kept in regular contact with Matthews, ascertained a fire in his belly.

If this was a soap opera, you’d call it a drastic switch in the story line involving the lead character.

Stubler had the team in playoff contention and to think he wouldn’t have been able to cobble a few more wins isn’t fair given that he did not receive a full year to prove himself. Even if he made mistakes, he deserved to have the opportunity to continue. How the Argos could have been so high on him upon his hiring and then lost confidence in him so quickly is, in part, why the team collapsed. It lost the togetherness on which it prided itself during Clemons’ years as head coach.

While the story is that Stubler went on a power trip and alienated others in the football operation and many players, so what. It wasn’t like the team was 0-10 or 1-9 or hopelessly out of playoff contention. He had started to make changes in personnel and scheme, no different than what Matthews has done.

While Matthews may say the team is better now than it was when he was hired and he was brought in to make changes, the bottom line is wins. Had he put together a few of them or lost by respectable margins, a great case could be made for him to be retained.

If the Don is gone he will, in his own words, "leave in a puff of smoke."

And that will be it for his career, which has been distinguished by his many championships and victories, although that didn’t happen upon his return. For that he should not be condemned.