Fresh off a 4-0 weekend of prognosticating, Lefko looks to continue a strong CFL second half.
Perry's Peerless Picks started off the second half of the Canadian Football League season with a bang. Not only did I pick all four winners against the spread, I also vaulted his overall season record on to the positive side.
Hey, if Dave Stala and Chad Owens can celebrate, why can't I?
No one's going to flag me, right?
Well, maybe the editors will.
Randall the Handle's tutorials have really come in handy, along with some extra work with Steve Rapp of www.bet365.net.
I'm trying to get the R&R connection to talk a little CFL on their Sunday betting show, Between The Lines. It's mainly about the National Football League, but Perry's Peerless Predictions thinks there should be some CFL talk.
There's not enough of it right now.
So, for the millions and millions of people reading this, we analyze this week's permutations and computations.
Friday
Calgary (8-1) against Edmonton (2-7)
Calgary wins again, it's just a question of by how much. The Stamps overwhelmed Edmonton on Labour Day, to the point many of allowing Calgary's players to get a chance to rest. This game is more about continuing to play at a high level and pouncing on its prey.
Calgary goes into this game fairly healthy, while Edmonton is on the limp. They'll be missing running back Arkee Whitlock, so that takes away the strength of their offence, and they are going with a rookie import who has only been with the team about 10 days. Calvin McCarty rejoins the team after missing time with a hand injury.
The porous offensive line has been changed with blindside tackle Calvin Armstrong getting the boot. But it's not really going to matter is it? Head coach Richie Hall will very likely be fired after this game, so we'll see if the team shows any passion or emotion. With only four days between games, the Eskimos couldn't make a coaching change because Hall is also the defensive co-ordinator. The time to make the move will be after Friday's game.
If Hall is replaced, I'm guessing the organization will hire an interim replacement, likely special teams coach Noel Thorpe. I'm going to throw in Terry Ray's name out as a possible future general manager. He's got a history of playing for the Eskimos and has built up quite a resume in player personnel in the U.S. since retiring.
But who knows what will happen and when.
Randall has the Stamps by 10 1/2.
Prediction: Stamps to cover.
Saturday
Montreal (6-3) at Hamilton (5-4)
Great tilt. If Hamilton wins, it ties the Als for first in the East. It became apparent in the Als' loss to B.C. last week that they are vulnerable without quarterback Anthony Calvillo. Adrian McPherson is pressed into duty for the first time this season because Chris Leak, who replaced Calvillo at starter and was ineffective, has a wonky hip. McPherson has shown some ability in the past and would have been the backup to Calvillo had he not been injured before the season started.
The Als need to put more of an emphasis on the running game. Avon Cobourne is physical and versatile, so I would expect the Als to make more use of him running the ball on first down and employing twin tight ends to try and dominate the line. The Als know they simply can't do what they did against B.C. and have any chance for success.
The defensive line needs to create a better push. Ends John Bowman and Anwar Stewart have to be much better. The Ticats may be missing two offensive linemen from Monday's victory over Toronto, so this is a chance for Montreal to try to employ some pressure. The question is, do they go hard right away with the blitz, which has proven fatal at times this season, or start out with zone?
I think the Als have to blitz hard and fast to attack the Ticats' rebuilt o-line. Jason Jimenez is capable of replacing Belton Johnson at tackle, but this will be his first game of the season. He's fresh but not in game shape.
The Ticats are on a four-game win streak, including back-to-back victories over Toronto. Quarterback Kevin Glenn is capable of going deep, which can be a problem for Montreal if it attempts to create early pressure but doesn't get to the quarterback. The defence also has to attack McPherson. Hamilton's ends are fast and furious and the front seven is one of the best in the league.
Will the crowd be as pumped as on Labour Day? Unlikely. Nor do I expect the stadium to be full. Collectively I wonder if the Cats and their fans are in for a letdown. Of all the games in Week 10, this is the hardest to predict because of so many variables.
Randall has the Cats by 3 1/2.
Prediction: Als and the points.
Toronto (6-3) at B.C. (2-7)
The Argos lost back-to-back games to Hamilton, largely defeating themselves with mistakes. Running back Cory Boyd hasn't had much success in recent games and reading his quotes he sounds frustrated. Apparently he was supposed to get way more touches on Labour Day, but the Ticats forced quarterback Cleo Lemon to use different options.
The Argos made some good plays against Hamilton with the benefit of motion, so there's no reason to drastically change. But the Argos will be missing potentially three offensive linemen hurt in the Hamilton game and haven't had much time to prepare given the short week. They may employ Calvin Armstrong, just cut by Edmonton, at left tackle without any serious practice time.
With a rookie quarterback and many rookie receivers, this game will be all about the Argos' defence trying to limit the Lions' scoring. B.C. quarterback Casey Printers played well against Montreal before leaving the game with leg cramps. This is his second start off the layoff and he should be in better game shape.
The Lions' problems this year have generally been a product of quarterback changes. With Printers starting and Travis Lulay coming off the bench if necessary, I think the Lions are a team that can do well in the second half. They are starting to get players back from the NFL and have developed an interesting all-purpose player in Yonus Davis.
The Lions haven't won in four games at their temporary new home, but the Argos haven't won in B.C. in a long time. In my opinion, this game could get really ugly for the Argos.
Lions are favoured by 5 1/2.
Prediction: Lions to cover.
Saskatchewan (6-3) at Winnipeg (2-7)
The Roughriders beat the Bombers by only four points on Sunday, giving up a late touchdown. They were frustrated by the Bombers' physical play for most of the game, before the offence took over in the fourth. It's still a problem, however. Quarterback Darian Durant continues to turn over the ball far too much and the Riders' key players aren't getting enough touches.
Sometimes the weather can be tricky in Winnipeg at this time of the year, so that could affect punter Eddie Johnson. The Bombers will be playing in front of a sellout crowd. Bombers' fans are great when the team is winning, but they aren't shy about booing the team when it falls behind.
Oft-injured Buck Pierce has a dislocated elbow, so backup Steven Jyles starts. This is his chance to run with job, literally. He has quality mobility and injected energy into the lineup on Sunday. The Roughriders know he is starting, so they can game plan solely against him.
It's up to the Bombers to show what they're made of. They are better than a 2-7 team, but have been impacted by injuries. Their offensive line gets bolstered by the return of tackle Luke Fritz. But this game really it comes down to two things: the receivers holding on to the ball and the team limiting turnovers overall.
Roughriders are favoured by 4 1/2.
Prediction: Winnipeg and the points.
Record last week: 4-0.
Record on the season: 18-17-1
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