The Peerless One is really confused.
Last year I was criticized for chirping too much about picking straight up because some of the games were gimmes.
So I started picking against the spread and found it considerably more challenging and my wins came in shorter supply, although I did make a nice charge at the end to finish on the positive side.
And then last week someone known as Thirdperson expressed the opinion that I should pick straight up against because I produced a profit for people who played my picks.
Look people, make up your mind! Peerless is only one man.
It's not hard to pick the Argos, Bombers and Eskimos to lose. I would have a great record if I continued to do that. For better or worse, I'm sticking with picking against the spread, although I might give some hints who to take straight up.
Look at it this way: Saskatchewan is easy straight up this week.
I think this is the week to play the dog.
That's what Randall the Handle has been drilling into my head. In fact, Randall brought a chalk board to my house this week. I expect we'd have a nice chalk talk about handicapping, instead he gave me a piece of chalk and told me to write, "I will not pick favourites every week" 100 times.
So for the millions and millions of people who read my Peerless (and I should say Fearless) Prognostications, let's go forward with Week 15. As always I recommend tuning in to The Fan on Sunday mornings to listen to Randall and the boys talk about football handicapping on Inside The Lines, sponsored by Bet365.com. Rumour has it I may be asked at some point to provide the show with my own betting insights.
Friday
Edmonton (4-9) against Hamilton (6-7)
The Eskimos are on a roll, with two consecutive victories, and are looking at making a run for the playoffs. And who would have thought that? The team is 2-1 since the hiring of general manager Eric Tillman. Some of the Eskimos' best players are playing to that level, notably quarterback Ricky Ray, who had one of his best games in two seasons last week in the victory over Hamilton, and receiver Fred Stamps. He's been impressive since his return from the injured list. Stamps is one of the best receivers in the league, and when he and Ray are dialed in, they form a powerful pitch-and-catch tandem.
The defence is really hungry, and that has been inspired by the return of several injured players, notably on the defensive line. When your defence is scoring touchdowns, which has been the case the last two games with Rod Davis, that's a momentum changer. That said, the defence will have to be even better this week because I think the Ticats are going to do some different things, notably try to go vertical. The Cats' problems the last two games have come down to one simple factor: turnovers. Running back DeAndre' Cobb has to protect the ball more. He's been racking up big-time yards in the last few games, but it means little with turnovers. I really think the Ticats are going to try to stretch the field. They need to get Arland Bruce more involved in the play, using him in different situations, beginning with getting him the ball in space with some hitches and the like and then having him go long.
Maurice Mann has done little since tweeting about his lack of catches. It will be interesting to see how Dave Stala rebounds after getting rocked solidly last week. He's been a factor in second-down situations. Marquay McDaniel has been effective, too. The defensive backfield has come under fire, so it will be that group's challenge to stop the Esks from going long. Don't be surprised if Ray tries to exploit the wide side of the field early to set up the vertical game. He has a habit of doing this.
Randall has the Ticats by five, but the spread has moved up to six.
Prediction: Edmonton and the points.
Saturday
Toronto (6-7) at Saskatchewan (9-4)
The Argos have done little of consequence since the first third of the season. There is little reason to believe that will change this week, even with quarterback Cleo Lemon returning after a one-game absence caused by a concussion. I'm surprised the team didn't give Dalton Bell another chance. He didn't do any worse than Lemon has done so far. The offence has struggled to score this year, and I'm not buying the injury factor. Every team has had those problems. The Argos' offensive woes have been well documented. I'd really like to see Lemon off the bench because I think he might do better in this role. That said, why not rotate the quarterbacks? It's totally unconventional, but I've seen instances where it's worked. All that said, you know the Argos will try to overpower the Roughriders at the line running the ball often with Cory Boyd. He had a solid opening half last week against the Green Guys, but tailed off in the final 30 minutes when the Roughriders made some adjustments. It looked like they moved Barrin Simpson closer to the line to stack the box.
The Argos may be without standout defensive lineman Kevin Huntley this week. This guy is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league. A story this week had recently-signed rush end Ricky Foley complaining about his lack of playing time. The Argo defence hasn't been a problem this year -- not in comparison to the offence -- and bringing in Foley has caused a chemistry problem, or at least one unhappy player. So it comes down to special teams having to bail out the Argos. By this I mean good returns and punter Jamie Boreham, the ex-Rider, pinning the opposition deep with his kicks.
The Roughriders may be compromised this week because quarterback Darian Durant has been limited in practice this week with a wonky ankle. He was lights out last week, but can he repeat it, especially with one bad leg? He has directed the offence well in recent weeks, distributing the ball to his receivers, who are making some incredible catches. If Durant isn't 100 per cent, expect the Roughriders to try to run the ball more with Wes Cates. I'm convinced Cates will be featured more anyway, likely getting at least 15 touches. Every week I say the Roughriders will finally bust open a return for a touchdown. Maybe in this game. Roughriders haven't lost at home this year.
Randall has the Green Beans by 11½. That's juicy.
Prediction: Argos and the points.
Monday
Calgary (10-3) at Montreal (9-4)
Henry Burris had a game to remember last week against Montreal, helping his team to open a quick 14-0 lead and the Als never recovered. Burris took care of the ball and that was the big difference in the game. Nik Lewis showed his importance by returning after one game due to an injury and scoring a huge touchdown. The Als really seemed to miss big-time receiver Kerry Watkins, who is out indefinitely. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo moved the ball around, giving the other receivers some more catches. After the game, head coach Marc Trestman lamented about his team not being ready and blamed himself. It was a rare game in which Trestman had to admit that.
The Als will be without dual-purpose kicker Damon Duval, and this guy has been solid on special teams for years. His absence with a leg injury could really affect the Als because he is money on field goals and knows how to direct his punts. You don't replace a guy like that with a raw rookie, which the Als will do. The Als' season won't be dramatically affected by a loss -- particularly with the Argos and Ticats struggling -- but they need to regain their swagger. Beating the Stamps, who haven't done much wrong this year, will be important. The Als really need to tighten up defensively, notably in the back end. It has factored significantly against the Stamps and Roughriders, both of which have stretched the field against Montreal. Ben Cahoon has a chance to set a record for the most catches in CFL history. The Als are favoured by 3½.
Prediction: Stamps and the points
B.C. (5-8) at Winnipeg (3-10)
The Lions racked up another win last week, continued their surge since starting off 1-7. Travis Lulay had his first significant game as a starter, doing it all. He secured the ball, which was a problem Casey Printers was having. The Lions have done well with the running game -- and that includes Lulay moving the pocket and taking off -- so there's no reason to stop. Yonus Davis has been a huge find for the Lions because of his multi-purpose talents.
The Lions may be the toughest team to watch when betting against the spread because they win the majority of their games via the foot of kicker Paul McCallum. Then again, is there a harder team to gauge than the Bombers? They just find ways to lose, but usually cover the spread as the dog. The Bombers are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, so they're rolling the bones with third-stringer Alex Brink, giving headline writers ample material. The Bombers receiving brigade is banged up, so this one could get fugly. At some point the Bombers have to record that elusive fourth win. They are 3-3 at home, 0-7 on the road. If they don't win soon, the fans could get mighty restless. Head coach Paul LaPolice is already getting scrutinized by the media, which as you know is always right about everything.
Bombers are favoured by 3½.
Prediction: Lions and the points.
Last week: 2-2
Record on the season: 25-26-1
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