Perry's Peerless Picks won three out of four last week, with the only loss coming from B.C. failing to cover. The Peerless One thought he was home and cooled out when B.C. was romping after three quarters.
We all know what happened.
I should note that Sensei Randall the Handle was after me again, verbally berating me for taking the Lions. Of course Randall is often fond of telling me the game is not over when I start sulking at halftime. So I had to remind him of one of his own truisms.
Okay, they lost.
Did I learn my lesson?
Well, in part. I've learned when a spread is 10 or more, it's best to take the dog. But I seem to be reverting back to my old ways about favourites and Randall keeps calling me Grasshopper and reminding me about faves covering. Will I never learn?
And as for that one critic who wondered why anyone should pay attention to me given that I have a losing record, well, I wish my best friend would stop doing that.
Ba-da-boom.
So on to Week 17. May your fumbles be few and your winnings many. I think that's another Randall line. And once again, listen to Randall Sunday mornings on Inside The Lines from 10:30:12:30 on The Fan590.
Friday
Montreal (11-4) at Hamilton (8-7)
The Als clinched first last week, barely holding on against Winnipeg. Again, it was the back end of the defence that showed its vulnerability. The Bombers' receiving corps is highly underrated with some major changes in recent weeks. I have to think Als' head coach Marc Trestman, rumoured to be on the short list of the vacant job at the University of Minnesota, is plenty peeved. Yes, he's resting some nicked up players this week, but the key players are still there, especially quarterback Anthony Calvillo. He wasn't in sync with his receivers in the last game - and some of his receivers dropped balls - and will be looking for improvement. I don't think the Als want to develop some bad habits.
Running back Avon Cobourne will be rested, but backup Brandon Whitaker has proven he can do the job. In fact, he could probably start for another team. Kicker Colt David came back down to earth last week, so it will be interesting to see if he rebounds. There's a great chance the Als will meet the Ticats in the East final in Montreal, so this game will mean something. Hamilton demolished the Argos last week, the third time they've beaten them this year, but can't seem to beat the Als. Can the Ticats defence stop the Als offence? Yes, it's just a question of how much. My new "favourite" player Stevie Baggs lit it up in the last game, but I'll be watching for big things from young studs Garrett McIntyre and Justin Hickman. The addition of Kyries Hebert won't hurt on special teams. Baggs has done a good job on the teams as well. What the Ticats will try to do - at least what they should do - is get the passing game going early. This needs to be their modus operandi. Kevin Glenn will clearly want to improve on last week's game, certainly the first half.
Randall has the Als by 2½.
Prediction: Als to cover.
B.C. (5-10) at Calgary (11-4)
I've already stated my frustration over the Lions performance last week. The Lions are absolutely terrible against the run and the Stamps bring it with their dual-pronged attack of Joffrey Reynolds and Jon Cornish, as well as quarterback Henry Burris. The Lions have lost key players to injury, notably cornerback Davis Sanchez and backup safety J.R. Larose. Quarterback Travis Lulay had a good game last week, and it wasn't because of him that the Lions blew the lead. The Lions have now lost two in a row and could be heading back for another losing streak, and at the wrong time. If they give the ball to bruising running back Jamal Robertson, they can try to wear down the Stamps. That said, the Stamps are not soft on defence. So, once again we are wondering whether Geroy Simon and company will see the ball much.
The Stamps really rose to the occasion against Saskatchewan. It may have been their best game of the year considering what was at stake. They need to win this game to keep the Riders four points behind and wrap up first place given that they've won the season series. Now in recent weeks, the Stamps have had a bad game followed by a good game. It's hard to explain why, but we know if Burris is on his game early, then the Stamps will flow from there. Playing at home, they have a chance to make a statement. They are starting to get some players back on defence - sacks/tackles leader Juwan Simpson missed last week's game with a knee injury. Stanley Bryant debuts at offensive tackle replacing Edwin Harrison. Corey Mace scooped up a tackle for a TD in the last game. How come the Argos didn't sign this guy? Was it money? Did he want to play out West because he's from B.C.? Whatever. He's valuable. With Mike (All World) Labinjo sidelined for the year with an elbow injury, Mace becomes that much more important. Jesse Lumsden will debut on special teams. This game isn't so much whether the Stamps beat B.C. - I think that's a given - but whether they will cover. Personally, the Lions have really been tough on me and I've had great success with dominant teams in recent weeks failing to cover the spread.
Randall has the Stamps by nine.
Prediction: Stamps to cover.
Saturday
Toronto (7-8) at Winnipeg (4-11)
What can you say about Toronto that hasn't been said? Head coach Jim Barker is taking a more active role in the offence from his first-year co-ordinator, but will it effectively make quarterback Cleo Lemon better? I think that's an issue that cannot change regardless of who is calling the plays. Combined with running back Cory Boyd having a wonky ankle, well, that really cripples the offence. The receiving corps just isn't formidable. The defence and the special teams are sound. Winnipeg tried hard last time and lost again. They have yet to win on the road, but at least are decent at home.
The Bombers have a good offence - with an improved receiving corps, highlighted by lanky rookies Terence Jeffers-Harris and Greg Carr - but they need to find the confidence evident early in the season. The defence is physical and has a chance to dominate the Argos at the line. I expect the pressure will be coming from every which way, which effectively will create man-to-man coverage on the corners, which have been guilty of jumping routes or getting caught on fakes. This is their chance to stop doing that. The Bombers are not out of the playoff picture. This is a chance for them to gain some confidence and keep their fans interested. If the Bombers blow this one, they will hear it from the crowd, so they need to make it work for them.
Bombers are favoured by four.
Prediction: Bombers to cover.
Saskatchewan (9-6) at Edmonton (5-10)
Riders had their pride wounded in the loss to Calgary. They have lost two in a row - both at home, which is a first this year - and have not had a three-game losing streak this season. There is much on the line in this game. As stated, if they win and the Stamps lose, they still have a shot at first. But more importantly, they need to win to get mentally straight again. Receiver Rob Bagg and kicker Luca Congi are gone for the season with knee injuries. Congi's will be more critical - not to diminish Bagg - because of the importance of kicking field goals. In the battle of the quarterbacks, Riders' Darian Durant did well in the last game after an awful game the week before. But the Riders can't have another game where premier receiver Andy Fantuz gets shut out.
The Eskimos ran roughshod over B.C., but I can't see that happening against the Riders because the defence is that much better. The Eskimos are starting to put it together, but they're also continuing to lose players to injury, notably in the receiving corps. Jason Armstead joins the team as a returner and possible backup receiver. Does this guy have a license to follow Eric Tillman everywhere he goes? And speaking of Tillman, he faces his former team. He won't suit up but you know he'll want to win and he will be part of the story. The fact a win would keep the Eskimos in playoff contention is probably more important in his mind. I don't expect Ricky Ray to run like he did last week. He's going to need to get the ball out of his hands early, and the Riders have too much team speed. He'll face the usual pressure, and might get some man-to-man situations with Fred Stamps, who played huge last week.
Saskatchewan favoured by two.
Prediction: Riders to cover.
Last week: 3-1
Record this season: 29-30-1
