Lefko breaks down this week's CFL match-ups hoping his picks turn into treats, not tricks.
Trick or treat?
What’s in store for the Peerless One this week?
Once again I was tricked into playing the favourites last week and sure enough, all four lost.
Predictably, Randall the Handle, the sensei of selections, has had it with me. No sooner had the final game ended than Randall sent me a scathing email.
If there’s one thing I don’t look forward to, it is a verbal rapping from Randall. He doesn’t hold back his criticism.
He’s been trying to tell me to pick the underdogs because even if a favourite wins, it has to cover the spread. He also has been saying if you pick favourites nobody cares, but if you pick underdogs at least you’re showing some courage and if you win you really look smart.
So like the kid who gets chewed out by his parents, I listen but don’t heed the words.
How was I supposed to know the Montreal Alouettes, would suffer a drubbing at the hands of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats?
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo played like the guy who stumbled, bumbled and fumbled in Steeltown, way before he became the great quarterback that he is today.
But maybe the worse feeling, was watching the Winnipeg Blue Bombers lose their two starting quarterbacks to season-ending injuries. Now that’s getting cursed.
I now understand how players feel, after they’ve lost and can’t wait to immediately play their next game, to forget about what happened the game before.
With all but B.C. and Edmonton left to decide the final playoff position, picking winners becomes that much more difficult. Unless you factor, that teams that have already secured playoff berths and lost last week, don’t want to continue that trend leading up to the playoffs.
So on behalf of Steven Jyles, Alex Brink and whoever is left standing at quarterback for Winnipeg by the time they finish the season, here we go with Week 18.
And a reminder, as usual to listen to Randall every Sunday morning from 10:30-12:30 on Inside The Lines, sponsored by Bet365.net.
Friday
Montreal (11-5) at Toronto (8-8)
Can the Als look any worse last week, losing 40-3 against Hamilton, than the Argos did the week before, losing 30-3 against Hamilton? What’s with these Ticats? We’ll get to that later.
The Als are 2-2 in their last four games, but seem to have lost their intensity in the last two. They simply were crap from start to finish against Hamilton. The change at halftime did little to change the outcome from the first half and you could see they wanted to get the game over.
Now they’re back in Toronto, where they have had their problems. Last time in Argoville they fell behind 14-0 and were scrambling to get back on track and simply couldn’t do it, losing 37-22.
Anthony Calvillo turned the ball over twice early in that loss – much like he did in the loss to Hamilton – but had a hell of a game afterward. He was replaced midway through the Hamilton loss, when it became apparent he didn’t have it and neither did his teammates.
Will the Als turn the ball over repeatedly? The reality is, the team is not going in the right direction heading towards the final two weeks. They had better discover their form or they could be in trouble in the Eastern final.
It’s time for the Als to smarten up, time for head coach Marc Trestman to kick butt. The Als get premier returner Larry Taylor back and he could easily add a spark to the Als. Receiver Kerry Watkins, who was among the league’s best before he suffered a collarbone injury, also returns to action. Punter/place kicker Damon Duval is another veteran returning following an injury. His replacement, Colt David, was spotty.
The Argos beat up on a Bombers’ team, that saw their quarterbacks go down like soldiers in battle. They were also helped by a questionable decision by Bombers’ head coach Paul LaPolice that turned the game around, when Toronto’s premier kick returner Chad Owens, ran back a missed field goal for a touchdown.
Head coach Jim Barker, played a more active role in the passing game. However it was the play of running back Cory Boyd that made all the difference, along with another strong game by the defence.
I’m thinking this will come down to the Als’ play rising and whether or not their defence can stop the Argos run game, which the Als have done repeatedly this season.
I suspect the Argos will comedown after their big win last week and struggle under the dome, which they’ve done all season.
Randall has the Als favoured by 4½.
Prediction: Als to cover.
Hamilton (9-11) at Calgary (11-5)
The Tiger-Cats are on a roll, with three overpowering wins in a row. Yes, rush end Stevie Baggs has made a significant contribution – forcing me to eat my critical words – so I give credit where it’s due. He has added an energy element that seems to have spread among his teammates. He was the beneficiary of some huge plays last week that were created by his teammates, but in the end Baggs was able to bag the turnovers.
Three decisive wins in a row by the Ticats, have made them the contender I figured they would be at the start of the season. They have gone through some ebbs and flows, but seem to be running well now, so they have to be respected.
Quarterback Kevin Glenn was on his game against Montreal, he will almost certainly be without feature receiver Arland Bruce, who is nursing a hammy, so expect the Ticats to try to run the ball.
The Stamps continued a trend last week, of the big dogs turning over the ball and lost 36-31 to B.C. They couldn’t get their running game going because they were playing from behind, but let’s be honest they could have won, were it not for a dropped touchdown catch in the final series. The Stamps have only lost twice at home this year and have a winning record against East Division teams. They beat the Ticats on the road in week two, similar to the Als. They need to wake up.
Stamps favoured by four.
Prediction: Stamps to cover.
Saturday
Winnipeg (4-10) at Edmonton (6-10)
The Bombers go with their third-string quarterback Joey Elliott – I keep thinking it is Billy Elliott from the ballet movie of the same name – and look like dead ducks. But they still have a premier running back and some receivers who care.
This will be about the defence doing all it can, to show its pride. They have a fantastic front four and the Eskimos’ offensive line is hot and cold and has lost an offensive tackle.
The Bombers also have a premier kick returner, so this reminds me of the Argos, who have a great defence and great special teams.
Yes, there’s no way to compare Joey Elliott to Cleo Lemon, but even a quarterback playing with average success, can win if the supporting cast chips in to help.
The Bombers’ defence knows it’s facing Jared Zabransky, so they have had time to prepare for him, while last week his start caught the other team by surprise.
The Eskimos have won four of their last five and their fans are starting to believe. Replacement running back Daniel Porter has been as effective, as the injured Arkee Whitlock – these guys actually look like clones the way they play – and that has balanced the offence.
I wouldn’t be surprised if new quarterback Kerry Joseph is used in some short-yardage situations. Heck, every player new general manager Eric Tillman has added to the lineup, has made a key contribution, along with many of the injured players returning to the lineup.
Ricky Ray is sidelined indefinitely, so it’s in Zabransky’s hands. This is his chance to make a statement that he should be the starter next year.
Eskimos are favoured by 7½.
Prediction: Bombers and the points.
Sunday
Saskatchewan (9-7) at B.C. (6-10)
Okay, the Riders are officially in a slump. The Rider Priders must be crying in their watermelons. I wonder if any of them will wear pumpkin heads to try to change the losing streak?
I still believe Darian Durant has some kind of injury because he isn’t playing well since that ankle injury in practice a few weeks ago. And again feature receiver Andy Fantuz isn’t seeing the ball enough.
Last week the Riders were playing after only six days, this time they have had eight days and the rest should matter.
The Lions beat the Stamps last week with some grit, giving up the lead and then regaining it and holding on for the win. This is a must game for them because they are fighting for a playoff spot.
So who has more incentive in this game, the Roughriders who are winless in three or the Lions who ended a two-game losing streak last week and need to win to stay in playoff contention?
Lions favoured by four.
Prediction: Riders and the points.
Last 0-4
Record this season: 29-34-1
