It is now down to the final four and are upsets brewing in the East and West finals?
It is now down to the final four and Perry's Peerless Picks is moving closer to his peerless Grey Cup prediction.
We think it will be Montreal and Calgary in the Grey Cup, but the two games this weekend will determine that.
The semi-finals last Sunday produced one upset and nearly another.
The Toronto Argonauts scored a 16-13 upset over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and blew my prediction of the Cats covering the seven-point spread. We dare say the Cats handed over the ball with far too many turnovers, but that's another story.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders beat the B.C. Lions 41-38 in double overtime, but failed to cover the six-point spread. I picked the Lions and the points, so I went 1-1 on the selections.
The finals will be interesting, if only because it could produce another Montreal-Saskatchewan Grey Cup, which would be a story in itself because of the crazy finish in last year's game, or a Montreal-Calgary final, which happened two years ago.
Or the Argos could pull off another stunning upset. And if it was the Argos and Stampeders, it creates a matchup between Toronto head coach Jim Barker and his former employers and his former direct boss, general manager/head coach John Hufnagel.
Or the Roughriders could shock the Stamps.
That's why this Sunday's games have a lot of interest, both from a gambling standpoint and from a story line. So, as usual we go forth with Randall the Handle's point spread and hope my picks prevail.
Toronto (10-9) at Montreal (12-6)
The Argos have absolutely nothing to lose in this game because no one expects them to win and the fact they've made it this far is an accomplishment in itself. While the Ticats self-imploded against Toronto, the Argos limited their turnovers. Essentially that is what it will come down to playing the Als. The Argos won two of four games against Montreal this year, albeit the last one came in the final game for both teams and the Als could be excused for not giving it their best because they played with a bunch of backups.
But one play made a difference: Argo quarterback went deep early in the game and registered a touchdown. Lemon needs to go deep early again. His longest pass against Hamilton was 12 yards. The Argos will try to ground and pound with running back Cory Boyd, but they need some kind of vertical presence. While Hamilton played zone almost exclusively against Toronto, rarely blitzing, the Als play a different style. They'll throw all kinds of looks at Toronto, including the safety down low. The onus is on Lemon and the receivers to look for the hot reads or for Lemon to create space by moving the pocket. Just once I'd like to see Toronto do a shovel pass. The receivers and Lemon need to be more exact on second-and-long situations. Too often Lemon settled for shorter passes and the Argos had to punt. Much focus will be on receiver Jeremaine Copeland, so the other receivers need to make catches, and that means Chad Owens and Andre Durie in particular.
The Argos' offensive line is improving, so it might be able to handle Montreal's pressure, but it will be compromised by the crowd noise, which means time-count penalties and procedure penalties are likely. Limiting those penalties will improve the slim chance the Argos have of winning. The Als should be plenty rested, and they'll have their full complement of players on the field. Of note, this means receiver Kerry Watkins and running back Avon Cobourne. These guys are difference makers. We all know what Anthony Calvillo can do.
There is some question about the defence. Can they muster more pressure on the quarterback. Ends John Bowman and Anwar Stewart really tailed off in the second half in terms of sacks. They need to create far more pressure. Again, the Als' ability to create early pressure will improve the back end, which can get burned. If you look at the special teams, the Argos have an edge. Put it all together and the Argos have a slight shot.
Randall has the Als by 10.
Prediction: Argos and the points.
Saskatchewan (11-8) at Calgary (13-5)
The 'Riders are on a two-game roll, both at home, after losing their previous four. They're on the road now and everything is different. The 'Riders were 3-6 away from home in the regular season and 5-5 in their division. It was a 36-24 loss to Calgary in week 16 that ended any shot the 'Riders had of finishing first. Are they a much better team now? Well, at least they have confidence, but Calgary won the season series. Saskatchewan had a grueling game against B.C. in the semis and now has to come back seven days later on the road. The task will not be easy, but at least they're prepared for the snow and cold given the conditions in Regina and what will surely be a snowy and blustery day in Calgary on Sunday.
The status of linebackers Barrin Simpson and Sean Lucas and cornerback Omarr Morgan are uncertain due to injuries. Simpson thinks he'll play, but head coach Ken Miller isn't so certain. Miller has hinted he's not even sure if he'll coach next year. As have often been stated, quarterback Darian Durant can't be anything but his best. He had a quality game in the semi-final completing 68.4% of his passes, his best game in the last six. He also hasn't thrown an interception in two of his last three games. Cutting back on his own turnovers is paramount as he's had 13 fumbles this year. The 'Riders play more of a passing game than a running game, and that may hurt them in these conditions. The 'Riders can be a high-scoring offence, but they give up far too many points on defence, which will be compromised based on the potential absence of three starters. They've been tested on the corner all season.
Calgary can be explosive when it puts everything together and has the best all-around offence in the league, especially with their ability to run the game with quarterback Henry Burris and the one-two punch of Joffrey Reynolds and Jon Cornish, who was banged up in the last game of the season. They are the most physical offence in the league, especially with their receiving corps. Nik Lewis has blown up several players this season. The question is: will Calgary be able to show its killer instinct, as it has done several times this year, including the second-last game of the season, or just do what it has to do? The defence is much like Saskatchewan in that it likes to throw all kinds of looks and has arguably the two best shutdown corners in the league. Calgary was 7-2 at home and 7-3 in its division.
Randall has the Stamps by 7½.
Prediction: Stamps to cover.
