Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
Canadian football’s prized Grey Cup is up for grabs on Sunday evening in Winnipeg between an Eskimos team that’s rolled off nine straight wins and a Redblacks squad who have put together five victories in a row. Ottawa earned a spot in the CFL championship game in the franchise’s second season back in the league and Edmonton’s quick turnaround under head coach Chris Jones has them in the title tilt two years removed from a terrible 4-14 campaign. That said, only one remarkable transformation will have a happy ending.
Eskimos (15-4) vs. Redblacks (13-6)
Last week: Eskimos won at home against Calgary, 45-31; Redblacks won at home against Hamilton, 35-28
Edmonton and Ottawa met twice in back-to-back games over four months ago in Weeks 3 and 4 with the Eskimos winning handily in each of the regular season meetings. Those results are likely one of the main reasons why the Eskies have been installed as a large more-than-a-touchdown favourite. However, that was a while back and both lineups will have a different look in the Grey Cup.
Each team has seen two major players among others added to the mix since meeting in July. For Edmonton it’s starting quarterback Mike Reilly and receiver Derel Walker, the CFL Most Outstanding Rookie; in Ottawa, it’s defensive end Shawn Lemon and running back William Powell.
Other tweaks have occurred as well, but none of them likely change the complexion of the game more than Henry Burris getting comfortable in Jason Maas’ offensive system and developing a strong rapport with all the new targets the Redblacks signed in free agency.
Back in the summer Hank wasn’t decisive with the football because he was learning and feeling out the intricacies of the new playbook. Watch Burris now and he looks like a totally different QB because he knows the offence inside and out and exactly where each pass catcher should be on a given play. That allows the 40-year-old signal caller to progress through reads quicker and throw with anticipation against any defence.
From Week 4 on, Burris played at a consistently high level and became the triggerman on the CFL’s most prolific passing team in 2015. Smilin’ Hank led the league in yards through the air by throwing for over 5,700 – 1,100 more than anyone else – while completing 70.9 per cent of his passes, by far the highest rate in Burris’ 15-year career. That’s the main difference with Hank; he became more efficient and as a result Ottawa scored a league-high-tying 44 offensive touchdowns.
For all those reasons advantage goes to Burris in the Grey Cup. Plus, he’s faced all the Eskimos defenders live and seen what they’re capable of in Jones’ scheme. Conversely, Edmonton has not had the opportunity to be on the field with the Redblacks since Ottawa’s offence really began to click and started to pile up points with various weapons becoming dangerous all over the field.
Add to that the fact that Burris wasn’t happy with the way he played in the Eastern Final – even though Hank connected with Greg Ellingson on a second and 25 for a 93-yard touchdown to win the game that will go down as one of the greatest plays in team history – he’s pretty perturbed about it and looking to make amends in the Grey Cup.
https://twitter.com/ArashMadani/status/669591397851373568
It appears the stars are aligning for Burris – the 2015 CFL Most Outstanding Player – to end a storybook season in style. Smilin’ Hank just might be grinning ear-to-ear with that trademark smile showing off the pearly whites with a big grey trophy over his head.
Line: Eskimos -7.5
Pick: Ottawa
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 34-30-1