Colleagues and friends often ask for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
It’s playoff time in the Canadian Football League. The Eastern and Western semifinals give us one small and one large favourite.
Argos (10-8) at Ticats (10-8)
Last week: Argos won at home against Winnipeg 21-11; Ticats lost 44-28 in Ottawa
QEW rivals meet in the East semi with a trip to Ottawa on the line.
Hamilton swept the season series with Toronto 3-0. However, Zach Collaros started each of those games for the Ticats and it was Trevor Harris for the Argos. Sunday’s tilt features a quarterback matchup of Jeremiah Masoli against Ricky Ray.
Masoli spent most of the season on the practice roster and he saw action in just one game, a week ago in Ottawa. The dual-threat pivot entered the game in the second quarter and guided the Tabbies to a 20-point spurt to lead 20-17 at the half, but he managed to put only eight points on the board in the final 30 minutes in a loss. If Masoli can find a comfort zone in the pocket and methodically execute Kent Austin and Tommy Condell’s offensive calls then Hamilton could win going away. That said, Masoli has a penchant for wanting to go for the big play every down and drawing up plays in the dirt, which doesn’t translate into consistent drives.
Toronto felt Ray was healthy enough to start the final two games of the regular season after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. The veteran signal caller doesn’t appear to have the same zip on his balls, but he’s still very capable of picking apart a defence. He’s had lots of success in the post-season, winning three Grey Cups (2003, 2005, 2012). Ray’s past success in the playoffs has to be one of the main reasons why he’s starting.
Sunday’s forecast says there could be strong wind gusts at Tim Hortons Field and that means scoring with the wind at your back will be at a premium. With that added factor and pressure, let’s put our money on the quarterback who’s proven he’s a playoff-tested winner.
Line: Ticats -2
Pick: Toronto
Lions (7-11) @ Stampeders (14-4)
Last week: Lions lost 28-7 at home against Calgary; Stampeders won 28-7 in B.C.
Calgary managed to rack up twice as many wins as B.C. during the regular season and that’s likely a large factor why the Stamps are heavy favourites in the West semi. Plus, Calgary’s horses get to play at home in McMahon Stadium where the team is 8-1 in 2015.
Calgary did see Jonathon Jennings for just over two quarters in Cowtown, but that was before he took over the starting role. B.C.’s 23-year-old pivot is 3-3 as a starter and the Lions have been in a position to have a chance at a win in every game he’s started. Their largest loss with Jennings at the helm is six points.
Jennings has really infused a new energy into the entire Lions roster, especially No. 1 receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux. The Manny Show has 560 receiving yards (93.3 per game) and six touchdowns since No. 10 took over main triggerman duties. If Arceneaux draws extra attention from Calgary due to his strong production of late, that could leave the likes of Lavelle Hawkins and Austin Collie in one-on-one situations, which Jennings has shown he can take advantage of and put the ball in proper spots.
As a result of more sustained offence, the Lions’ defence has been off the field more and been more effective because of it. Mark Washington’s group played their best football of the year in the final regular season stretch. If the ‘D’ can force a turnover or two B.C. could be in a prime position to pull the upset.
Although, it won’t be easy for B.C. against John Hufnagel and his squad that’s Grey Cup championship quality, but the feisty Lions should at least keep it close.
Line: Stampeders -9.5
Pick: Lions
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 33-27-1