After 20 gruelling regular-season weeks six teams are left standing with a chance at Grey Cup glory.
Hamilton and Calgary earned bye weeks and will be resting up while watching the CFL’s Eastern and Western semis. BC will travel almost 5,000 kilometers for a crossover matchup with Montreal. And Saskatchewan visits Edmonton to face the Eskimos for the second time in as many weeks.
There are important factors that will decide each outcome. Let’s skip the mind games coaches are playing surrounding their quarterback situations—it’s doubtful even the wives of Corey Chamblin and Chris Jones know which quarterback on their respective teams will start and see the most game action on Sunday. So we’ll focus on other elements that will influence final results.
No Eastern promises
Only twice in seven all-time crossover games has a team come from the West and defeated an Eastern opponent. Despite the dominance of Western teams over their divisional counterparts in 2014, a BC win is not the lock that may some think it is, especially with the way they’ve been playing.
The Lions enter the Eastern Semi-Final without much roar. BC dropped two in a row to end the regular season by a combined score of 70–19. The usually fierce Lions defence gave up more than 1,000 yards in those losses, and the offence failed to gain 600 of their own.
It won’t get any easier for Kevin Glenn and co. against an Alouettes defence that flies around with lots of energy on their home field. But a healthy Stefan Logan could provide a boost for BC.
Logan racked up 117 yards rushing and 70 more receiving in the team’s regular-season finale against Calgary. A healthy Logan gives BC a true game-changing threat at the running back position with Andrew Harris out for the season. The diminutive playmaker is tough to see behind the offensive line and his quick cuts leave defenders grasping for air. BC would be wise to put the ball in Logan’s hands a much as possible because it could keep the Als “D” on their heels and possibly open up the play-action passing game for downfield threats like Manny Arceneaux and Ernest Jackson.
If BC can find a way to put 20 or more points on the board and lock down Duron Carter and S.J. Green—each member of the Als’ top receiving tandem has over 500 yards in Montreal’s last seven games—the Lions could have a fun flight home.
Eskimos to rev up run game
Mike Reilly or Matt Nichols? Darian Durant or Kerry Joseph? The answers to both questions are closely guarded secrets. Whether the less-than-100-percent pivots or their healthy backups take the field Sunday it could be the running games and defences that ultimately decide a winner at Commonwealth Stadium.
Rested Eskimos running back John White surely can’t wait to carry the rock against Saskatchewan. No. 30 ran for 283 yards on 33 carries—8.6 yards per carry—in two games versus the Riders in 2014. White was given the final week of the regular season off to get ready for playoffs, and his presence on the field alone should draw lots of attention.
Meanwhile, it hasn’t been pretty for Saskatchewan on offence since Durant suffered a torn tendon in his elbow on Sept. 7. Since their unquestioned leader’s injury, the Riders are 2-6 and teams have routinely stacked the box against them to shut down the run. Look for Edmonton to continue that strategy on Sunday.
On top of loading up to stop the running game, the Esks will focus their attention in the secondary on receiver Weston Dressler. Edmonton enjoys using many exotic looks on defence and you can bet Chris Jones has saved some for the sudden-death season.
Saskatchewan needs to decipher the various defensive schemes that will be thrown at them and find ways—be it with different receiver screens or quick throws—to get their passing game on track. If not, the Riders’ title defence will end in Edmonton.