The Calgary Stampeders are 9.5-point favourites to beat the Ottawa Redblacks in the 104th Grey Cup but that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion they’ll hoist the revered trophy at BMO Field in Toronto on Sunday.
Calgary was the class of the CFL in 2016 and has looked unbeatable since a Week 3 tie against the Redblacks. Their only loss since that July 8 contest was in Week 19 in a meaningless game against the Alouettes in which Calgary sat most of their starters.
Calgary Stampeders
Regular season record: 15-2-1
Total points scored: 549
Total points allowed: 369
Record vs. OTT in 2016: 1-0-1
Record at BMO Field: 1-0
Ottawa Redblacks
Regular season record: 8-9-1
Total points scored: 486
Total points allowed: 498
Record vs. CGY in 2016: 0-1-1
Record at BMO Field: 1-0
As you can see from some of the numbers above and below, Calgary’s success this year was no fluke. The Redblacks are going to do everything in their power to prevent this Stampeders squad from going down as one of the truly great CFL teams. We’ve seen stranger things happen.
With that in mind, here’s a look at how the two teams stack up in different areas:
QUARTERBACKS
The Redblacks were tops in the league when it came to airing it out. Their 6,191 total passing yards ranked first in the CFL, more than 500 yards ahead of the 5,655 yards that Stampeders put up. However, the Stampeders threw for 32 touchdowns compared to 30 for the Redblacks.
The biggest difference between the two teams though is the fact Calgary relied solely on Bo Levi Mitchell, while Ottawa turned to both Henry Burris and Trevor Harris throughout the season. Harris put up better numbers than Burris yet the reigning MOP has been playing well in recent weeks and will be in the spotlight Sunday.
Burris has the full confidence of his teammates but if something were to happen to him they can turn to Harris without skipping a beat. If something happens to the clear-cut 2016 MOP Mitchell, on the other hand, Calgary will be in trouble.
| PLAYER | TEAM | GP | COMP | ATT | % | YARDS | TD | INT | QB RATING | YDS/COMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Levi Mitchell | Calgary | 17 | 412 | 606 | 68 | 5,385 | 32 | 8 | 107.9 | 8.9 |
| Henry Burris | Ottawa | 8 | 180 | 264 | 68.2 | 2,419 | 12 | 9 | 98 | 9.2 |
| Trevor Harris | Ottawa | 12 | 242 | 330 | 73.3 | 3,301 | 16 | 4 | 116 | 10 |
Who has the edge?
RECEIVERS
Ernest Jackson, Greg Ellingson, Chris Williams and Brad Sinopoli have each registered back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons for Ottawa. That type of accomplishment is unheard of in pro football. Even though the Redblacks will be without Williams (who tore his ACL in October), the Stampeders know what they’re up against.
Calgary’s receivers are no slouches. Outstanding Rookie winner DaVaris Daniels had 107 yards and a touchdown in the West Final and has been excellent since joining the team following a brief tryout with the New England Patriots in September. He could be an x-factor.
Looking at Ottawa’s top four targets compared to Calgary’s top four receivers available for Sunday’s game, there’s a stark contrast in what they were able to produce this year.
| PLAYER | TEAM | GP | REC | YARDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquay McDaniel | Calgary | 16 | 83 | 1,074 | 12.9 | 4 |
| DaVaris Daniels | Calgary | 11 | 51 | 885 | 17.4 | 9 |
| Anthony Parker | Calgary | 18 | 51 | 654 | 12.8 | 4 |
| Kamar Jorden | Calgary | 8 | 42 | 580 | 13.8 | 3 |
| TOTAL | Calgary | 227 | 3,193 | 14.04 | 20 | |
| Greg Ellingson | Ottawa | 17 | 76 | 1,260 | 16.6 | 4 |
| Chris Williams | Ottawa | 14 | 77 | 1,246 | 16.2 | 10 |
| Ernest Jackson | Ottawa | 17 | 88 | 1,225 | 13.9 | 10 |
| Brad Sinopoli | Ottawa | 17 | 90 | 1,036 | 11.5 | 4 |
| TOTAL | Ottawa | 331 | 4,767 | 14.4 | 28 |
Who has the edge?
RUNNING BACKS
Outstanding Canadian winner Jerome Messam was the league’s top running back this season, and could be the key difference maker on Sunday to cap off a career year. The team’s strong rushing attack resulted in Calgary carrying the bulk of the action in most games. They led the regular season in total time of possession with 568:55. Ottawa ranked fourth with 544:58.
While we know what we can expect from Messam and the steady Stamps, Ottawa’s backfield is full of question marks. Mossis Madu left the East final injured last week and it doesn’t look like he’s going to suit up Sunday. But Kienan Lafrance stepped up in Madu’s absence with the game of his career. Lafrance ran for 163 yards in 16 regular season games but had 157 yards on the ground against the Eskimos.
Burris suggested at practice this week that the team could also lean on Travon Van. The Redblacks are a pass-heavy team but if they can establish the run and get Calgary to hesitate even for a second it could pay dividends throughout the game.
| PLAYER | TEAM | CARRIES | RUSH YARDS | YDS/CARRY | RUSH TD | REC | REC YARDS | REC TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Messam | Calgary | 206 | 1,198 | 5.82 | 11 | 54 | 485 | 1 |
| Lafrance / Van | Ottawa | 118 | 585 | 4.95 | 2 | 31 | 213 | 1 |
Who has the edge?
OFFENSIVE LINE
Both teams have a wealth of talent on the o-line, but Calgary was elite in the trenches. There’s no question why Mitchell was able to shred opposing defences. Yes, he’s an excellent quarterback, but he also had loads of time to get rid of the ball. Led by Outstanding Lineman winner Derek Dennis, Calgary allowed a league-low 20 sacks in 2016 as well as boasting the top rusher in Messam.
The Redblacks are steered by the East’s Outstanding Lineman, Jon Gott, plus Outstanding Rookie nominee Jason Lauzon-Séguin. But only Saskatchewan (57) and Montreal (64), both non-playoff teams, allowed more than the 50 sacks Ottawa gave up.
Who has the edge?
DEFENSIVE LINE
This is another area in which Calgary was dominant. They tied the BC Lions for most sacks in the league with 52 and fielded the stingiest run defence. It doesn’t get much better than Charleston Hughes when it comes to getting after opposing QBs. The veteran led the league in sacks with 17. Ottawa will be playing with a chip on its shoulder and Arnaud Gascon-Nadon has stood out lately, but overall Calgary has the superior d-line.
Who has the edge?
LINEBACKERS/SECONDARY
Ottawa’s defensive backs kept the dynamic Edmonton receivers in check last week and without that performance we would’ve likely seen a Battle of Alberta Grey Cup. Antoine Pruneau, Abdul Kanneh and Mitchell White don’t get enough credit for what they do in the secondary. Kanneh’s energy has been palpable this week, so it will be interesting to see if that translates to something positive on the field Sunday.
Ottawa had 16 interceptions compared to Calgary’s 11. The Redblacks are led by Damaso Munoz and Taylor Reed at linebacker.
Stampeders linebacker Alex Singleton is a player both Dave Dickenson and Rick Campbell raved about at Wednesday’s coaches’ press conference. You can expect him to be all over the field, and watch for Jamar Wall and Tommie Campbell to be under fire all game.
Who has the edge?
SPECIAL TEAMS
Calgary had better punting, punt return, kickoff and kickoff return averages than Ottawa and have the more consistent field goal kicker. As we’ve seen in so many Grey Cups past, the game could come down to a late field goal, and if it does that might make Redblacks fans nervous. Chris Milo is recovering from a groin/hip flexor ailment. If he can’t go they’ll need to rely on an inexperienced Ray Early. Each team scored one touchdown on punt returns. Neither scored on a kickoff.
| PLAYER | TEAM | GP | FG MADE | FG ATT | % | LONG | XP MADE | XP ATT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rene Parades | Calgary | 18 | 56 | 64 | 87.5 | 52 | 30 | 37 |
| Chris Milo | Ottawa | 16 | 47 | 48 | 81 | 55 | 32 | 35 |
| Ray Early | Ottawa | 2 | 4 | 4 | 100 | 39 | 2 | 2 |
Who has the edge?
HOW THEY FARED AT BMO FIELD
Regardless of the fact defeating the Toronto Argonauts didn’t count for much in 2016, both teams had success in their games at BMO Field this season. Harris was masterful and Ellingson put up 218 yards in a 30–20 win on a humid July night back in Week 4. Burris has never played or practised at BMO.
Calgary beat up on the Argos in Week 16 when Mitchell picked Toronto apart for 281 yards and three touchdowns, and Messam looked unstoppable running for 133 yards and a score. They were up 35–6 at halftime so BMO has been kind to them in its brief CFL history.
Who has the edge? N/A
