Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
All four home teams in Week 13 have been installed as favourites by a combined 31 points. Only two—Calgary and Hamilton—have winning records in their hometown stadiums in 2015. That leaves some chances for road dogs to bark. Let’s get to it.
Lions (4-6) @ Stampeders (8-3)
Last week: Lions lost 31–18 at home to Ottawa; Stampeders lost 27–16 in Edmonton
BC’s season is spiraling in the wrong direction. After losing for the third time in four games last week, Andrew Harris, the Lions’ best offensive player, left the stadium immediately—no shower or media. You can’t fault Harris for being frustrated, especially when you consider BC had an 18–14 halftime lead, but were outscored 17–0 in the final 30 minutes with the CFL’s leading rusher getting just three carries in the entire game.
Further to the losses piling up on the Left coast, Sportsnet’s Arash Madani reports that the Lions’ players are not happy with first-year CFL head coach Jeff Tedford.
Combine BC’s disgruntlement with a Calgary team that’s coming off a loss – the Stamps haven’t dropped two in a row this season and are a perfect 6-0 at home—and the Lions’ trip to McMahon Stadium appears to have all the makings of a Calgary triumph.
Line: Stampeders -12
Pick: Calgary
Eskimos (7-4) @ Tiger-Cats (8-3)
Last week: Eskimos won 27–16 at home against Calgary; Tiger-Cats won 35–27 in Toronto
Hamilton has pounced on teams right out of the locker room to take early leads, and used those fast starts to propel them to lots of victories in 2015. Edmonton knows that tactic all too well. In Week 9, the Ticats came into Commonwealth Stadium, grabbed an interception, forced a fumble and scored touchdowns off both turnovers to jump out 14–3 in the first quarter, an advantage they never looked back from in a 49–20 throttling.
In first quarters this season the Tiger-Cats have outscored opponents 122–42. Hamilton has lost just one time in eight games where they held a lead after the opening 15 minutes, so Edmonton must be ready from the get-go.
Mike Reilly is healthy and back starting at quarterback for the Eskimos, which provides a major boost in terms of talent at the pivot position. And he also brings out more confidence in his teammates, something that Matt Nichols or rookie James Franklin just weren’t able to do.
In a possible Grey Cup preview, Reilly’s moxie can keep the green and gold in it at Tim Hortons Field.
Line: Ticats -6.5
Pick: Edmonton
Redblacks (6-4) @ Riders (1-10)
Last week: Redblacks won 31–18 in BC; Riders lost 22–7 in Winnipeg
The last time Ottawa saw Saskatchewan Corey Chamblin was patrolling the sidelines and the Redblacks sent the Riders to 0-9 with a decisive 35–13 victory that led to firings in Riderville. Chamblin and general manager Brendan Taman were relieved of their respective duties after one of the worst starts to a season in franchise history.
Bob Dyce has a respectable 1-1 record as the Riders’ interim head coach and he gets a healthy veteran passer back in Kevin Glenn this week. The 14-year CFLer started four games earlier this year before tearing a pectoral muscle. He had Saskatchewan’s offence rolling before injury and ranked No. 1 in the CFL in many categories, including points scored. Trouble is Glenn can’t play defence.
The Riders are allowing a league-worst 30.5 points per game and Ottawa’s offence has averaged 30 over their last three. And Henry Burris has been on a roll in those recent outings, throwing for 1,012 yards in his last three starts. Good Hank prevails in Regina.
Line: Riders -2.5
Pick: Ottawa
Blue Bombers (4-7) @ Alouettes (4-6)
Last week: Blue Bombers won 22–7 at home against Saskatchewan; Alouettes enjoyed a bye week
Rakeem Cato has been home tending to a family matter and it appears that Jonathan Crompton—activated off the six-game injured list (shoulder)—could start for Montreal. Recently Montreal hasn’t gotten consistent production from the quarterback spot and it’s holding the Als back.
Meanwhile, Matt Nichols looks to be Winnipeg’s QB for at least the short term with Drew Willy injured and big-name Clemson product Tajh Boyd just arriving in the ’Peg this week. Nichols did get the offence moving in his Bomber debut—a Banjo Bowl victory—and he’s seen Montreal’s defence once already this year, which should help.
Ten points is far too many to lay with a Montreal team that has managed only one win by more than that margin.
Line: Alouettes -10
Pick: Winnipeg
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 13-15