Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
A 2014 Grey Cup rematch and three division tilts headline Week 15 in the CFL. Oddsmakers have put a tight line on every game with spreads less than a touchdown. Time to hit some winners.
Alouettes (5-7) @ Redblacks (7-5)
Last week: Alouettes lost 33-21 in Saskatchewan; Redblacks lost 35–26 at home against Toronto
Ottawa heads into a crucial East Division matchup looking to sweep the season series with Montreal and put some more distance between them and the Als in the standings.
One week ago, the Redblacks’ defence got carved up at TD Place Stadium in the opening half by Trevor Harris and the team couldn’t recover. However, it’s hard to imagine Rakeem Cato, who’s making his first start in more than a month (Aug. 27), coming into the nation’s capital and unleashing a similar aerial assault.
You can tell Ottawa was smarting after the loss a week ago, so expect maximum effort from the home side.
Line: Redblacks -2.5
Pick: Ottawa
Stampeders (10-3) @ Ticats (8-4)
Last week: Stampeders won 25-23 in Winnipeg; Ticats enjoyed a bye week
Many people around the league were looking at this game as a possible Grey Cup preview, but a couple crucial injuries has changed the complexion. Hamilton lost quarterback Zach Collaros to a season-ending ACL injury and Calgary won’t have middle linebacker Juwan Simpson for four-six weeks due to a broken collarbone. Each team will have to adjust without star players, which should be interesting to watch.
Jeff Mathews steps in at quarterback for the Ticats to make his first career CFL start. He played under head coach Kent Austin and offensive coordinator Tommy Condell for three seasons at Cornell University from 2010-2012, so he knows the scheme well and it calls for the football to be put in the air a lot.
To this point in the season, Hamilton has averaged the second-most pass attempts per game in the CFL and the Tabbies like throwing the football. With that in mind, Mathews’ experience in the system should aid him against a veteran-laden Calgary defence.
All that said, Calgary’s offensive stars are healthy and Jon Cornish seems to be getting his mojo back. For that reason alone hitch your wagon to the Stamps.
Line: Stampeders -2.5
Pick: Calgary
Eskimos (9-4) @ Bombers (4-9)
Last week: Eskimos won 29-23 at home against BC; Bombers lost 25-23 at home against Calgary
It’s the Matt Nichols revenge game.
Nichols spent parts of six seasons with Edmonton and he had plenty of opportunities to win the starting quarterback job, but in the Eskimos’ eyes he couldn’t do enough to earn it. Then he was shipped off to Winnipeg for a conditional draft pick.
You can bet Edmonton head coach and defensive guru Chris Jones knows Nichol’s strength and weaknesses well and he’ll be out to expose them in the ‘Peg.
The Eskimos defence is an attacking unit that can pound opposing offences into near submission. Defensive linemen Odell Willis, Willie Jefferson and Almondo Sewell should be wreak havoc on a Bombers offensive line that has allowed a league-worst 46 sacks.
Line: Eskimos -6
Pick: Edmonton
Riders (2-11) @ Lions (4-8)
Last week: Riders won 33-21 at home against Montreal; Lions lost 29-23 in Edmonton
Saskatchewan and B.C. played a home-and-home set back in Weeks 3 and 4 with the Lions winning both games. Each of those contests were decided by three points, so it’s fitting that the Leos are three-point favourites for the third and final regular-season meeting.
Back then, Kevin Glenn was healthy and he had success against B.C. throwing for 271 and 360 yards, respectively, in those two early-season meetings. Saskatchewan’s veteran pivot has healed from a torn pectoral muscle and returned to boost the Riders’ offence. In two starts since coming off the six-game injured list, Glenn has helped the green and white score 60 points. Saskatchewan has put up at least 21 points in all six of Glenn’s starts this season.
With Glenn on the field it makes every one of the Riders’ playmakers better and in perfect conditions inside at B.C. Place the offence should keep rolling. Take Saskatchewan to cover on the road.
Line: Lions -3
Pick: Saskatchewan
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 15-20-1