Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
Week 16 began with a rare Tuesday night affair in the CFL because the Argos got booted from the Rogers Centre with the Jays needing the dome for MLB playoffs. So the boatmen traveled to the nation’s capital for a “home game” against Ottawa. Chad Owens made a diving, one-handed touchdown grab to give Toronto a victory and provide yours truly with a cover and 1-0 start to Week 16.
If the rest of our picks this week can be anywhere near as amazing as Owens’s ridiculous catch, we’ll be doing pretty well.
Riders (2-12) @ Ticats (8-5)
Last week: Riders lost 46–20 in B.C.; Ticats lost 23–20 at home against Calgary
In a must-win game last week the Riders decided not to show up until the fourth quarter. So no surprise Saskatchewan was down 40–5 heading into the final frame and went on to suffer a 46–20 loss that all but extinguished any waning playoff hopes. There is a scenario where if 15 of 16 game results go in the Riders’ favour down the final stretch that Saskatchewan would make the post-season, but it’s just not realistic.
After getting beat up by B.C., the Riders travel east for a trip to Tim Hortons Field, which was a house of horrors for opposing teams until Montreal ended Hamilton’s 10-0 run with a victory in Week 10. Now, three of the last four and two straight visiting teams have earned wins at the donut box. The Ticats need to capitalize on a home date with a team that’s essentially playing out the string.
It’s crucial that rookie quarterback Jeff Mathews puts together a strong outing and develops some confidence against the worst defence in the league in terms of points, yards and pass yards allowed. The smart bet is that Kent Austin will have Mathews totally prepared.
Line: Ticats -7.5
Pick: Hamilton
Eskimos (10-4) @ Stampeders (11-3)
Last week: Eskimos won 24–23 in Winnipeg; Stampeders won 23–20 in Hamilton
Top spot in the West is on the line in the third and final 2015 regular-season installment of the Battle of Alberta. A Calgary triumph puts the Stamps two games up in the division with four to play, but an Edmonton ‘W’ means the Eskimos vault into first place and hold the tiebreaker over their provincial rivals.
The Stampeders have been unbeatable at home in 2015 with a sparkling 7-0 record at McMahon Stadium and Edmonton has lost six straight in the building. The Eskimos last win in Calgary came on July 23, 2011, with Ricky Ray leading Edmonton to a 24–19 victory.
Of course, Mike Reilly is now the franchise quarterback for the Eskies and he’s looking to start his own streak against Calgary. He threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 12 to earn his first win against the Stamps in six career starts. Since Reilly’s return to the starting line-up Edmonton has run off four straight wins and are the hottest team in the league. That’s enough positive momentum to believe the Eskimos can at least keep it close.
Line: Stampeders -4
Pick: Edmonton
Bombers (4-10) @ Lions (5-8)
Last week: Bombers lost 24–23 at home against Edmonton; Lions won 46–20 at home against Saskatchewan
A de facto playoff takes place on the left coast between Winnipeg and B.C, especially for the Bombers. If Winnipeg wants to keep real playoff aspirations alive a victory is an absolute must.
The Bombers’ one and only road victory in 2015 came in Week 1 against Saskatchewan when the Riders had to deal with losing Darian Durant to a torn Achilles. Since then Winnipeg has lost by one, 29, 30, 18 and 21 points outside of Manitoba. Conversely the Bombers are coming off two close home defeats in a row to the league’s best teams in Calgary and Edmonton, producing a cover in each contest.
Mike O’Shea should have his desperate team ready to give maximum effort.
Line: Lions -7
Pick: Winnipeg
Argos (8-5) @ Alouettes (5-8)
Last week: Argos enjoyed a bye week then won 38–35 in Ottawa to kick off Week 16; Alouettes lost 39–17 in Ottawa
These two division rivals meet for the first time in 2015.
Trevor Harris promised the Argos would come out of their Week 13 bye and play at a higher level, and he’s backed up his words. Toronto has reeled off two consecutive victories behind Harris throwing for 679 yards and seven touchdowns. And Montreal’s defence seems ripe for the picking after Henry Burris passed for 504 yards against the Alouettes their last time out.
Until Montreal can somehow find a way to even get decent production from the quarterback position you cannot trust the Als with your hard-earned money.
Line: Argos -2.5
Pick: Toronto
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 18-22-1