Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
If you like winners you’ve come to the right place. We’re rolling along on an 11-2 run and you don’t want to miss out on the fun.
Lions (6-10) @ Argos (9-7)
Last week: Lions won 40–13 at home against Hamilton; Argos lost 34–2 as the home team at Tim Hortons Field against Montreal
Toronto finally gets to play a game in its home city as the Argos take to the field at Rogers Centre for the first time since Sept. 11 (49 days).
With Trevor Harris struggling in his last two starts, head coach Scott Milanovich has anointed Ricky Ray as the Argonauts’ starter for their Week 19 matchup against B.C. The 36-year-old, three-time CFL All-Star missed 16 consecutive games after suffering a shoulder injury late last season. Ray, who reps a 20-21 record as a starter since arriving in Toronto, did get some playing time in the second half in Week 18 against Montreal when the outcome was already decided and he looked comfortable.
Ray takes on a Lions defence that seems to be peaking, and he hasn’t had anywhere near the amount of reps—in practice or games—that Harris has had with the new Argos receivers. Tori Gurley (although he’ll be benched this week), Vidal Hazelton and Kevin Elliott rank one, two and three respectively for Toronto in receiving yards in 2015, and that trio has just over a quarter of game action with Ray.
The Leos seem to be hitting their stride in all phases at the right time, and they’re the better bet this week.
Line: Argos -3
Pick: BC
Riders (2-14) @ Stampeders (12-4)
Last week: Riders lost 35–24 at home against Edmonton; Stampeders enjoyed a bye week
These teams are in vastly different positions at the moment—the Stamps are competing for the West Division regular-season title and the Riders’ focus is already on 2016. Even though Saskatchewan is looking towards next season, all the players that will wear green and white on Saturday are playing for future jobs.
On the season John Hufnagel has guided his horses to 13 wins, but for point-spread purposes only twice have the Stampeders beaten an opponent by 14 or more points (Week 8 and Week 10).
Canadian running back Jerome Messam will play for Calgary for the first time since being acquired from Saskatchewan at the trade deadline.
The 2011 Most Outstanding Canadian and second-ranked rusher in the CFL this year wants the Riders to “feel the boom for real.”
Expect the Stamps to make Messam feel comfortable in the offence and feed the bulldozing back.
Calgary wins, but with Saskatchewan able to play with a free-and-easy attitude the Riders can produce a cover.
Line: Stampeders -14
Pick: Saskatchewan
Redblacks (10-6) @ Ticats (10-6)
Last week: Redblacks won 27–20 in Winnipeg; Ticats lost 40–13 in BC
East Division foes Ottawa and Hamilton have not yet faced off in 2015 through 16 games played. That schedule quirk works out well for the league as the Redblacks and Ticats will likely decide the regular-season East Division title in a two-game series to end the season.
The Tabbies are licking their wounds after suffering a 27-point defeat a week ago. Head coach Kent Austin was blunt when describing the Ticats’ performance.
Austin won’t allow his team to get “whipped” again and that means a big bounceback effort is likely in the offing.
Henry Burris took a low shot to his left knee from Winnipeg defensive end Jamaal Westerman last week and it seems to have done some damage. The 40-year-old didn’t look quite as mobile as usual in the second half against the Bombers, and he missed the first two Redblacks practices this week.
A less-than-100-percent Hank, plus a Ticats bunch frothing at the mouth to get back in the win column, equals a Hamilton cover.
Line: Ticats -4
Pick: Hamilton
Alouettes (6-10) @ Eskimos (13-4)
Last week: Alouettes won 34–2 at Tim Hortons Field against Toronto; Eskimos won 35–24 in Saskatchewan
Montreal needs to win out and get a bit of help to earn the final playoff spot in the West. Meanwhile, Edmonton can lock up their first West Division regular-season crown since 2003 with a victory at Commonwealth Stadium, where the team is 7-1 in 2015.
Eskimos head coach Chris Jones has the green and gold rolling on a seven-game win streak and focused on capturing the division—not to mention the rest and home-field advantage that come with it. There’s no reason to expect they won’t get it considering they’ve been playing at a consistently high level on both sides of the ball.
Line: Eskimos -8
Pick: Edmonton
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 28-24-1