Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
There are three meaningless games in terms of the standings in Week 20 on the Canadian Football League’s last regular season weekend. However, all the contests matter to us as we look to improve our 13-4 mark picking games against the spread of late.
Bombers (5-12) @ Argos (9-8)
Last week: Bombers had a bye week; Argos lost 27-25 at home against B.C.
Coming off a bye week where Winnipeg saw their playoff hopes come to an end, the Blue Bombers play out the final game of their underwhelming season. Meanwhile, Toronto looks to get some positive momentum going heading into the playoffs – the Argos have dropped three in a row, a losing spell that put them out of contention to win the East Division regular season title.
It was a tale of two halves for Ricky Ray in his first start of the 2015 season last week. The 36-year-old threw for 182 yards in the first half and just 45 in the second as Toronto suffered a defeat. The Argos’ veteran pivot gets the call again and will be looking to prove he can put together a more complete effort and guide Toronto to a victory. Ray should be able to pick apart a leaky Bombers’ pass defence.
Line: Argos -7
Pick: Toronto
Ticats (10-7) @ Redblacks (11-6)
Last week: Ticats lost 12-6 at home against Ottawa; Redblacks won 12-6 in Hamilton
All the East Division marbles are on the table in Ottawa.
If the Redblacks win, or lose by five points or less, the second-year franchise claims the regular season crown. If the Ticats win by seven points or more they will get the top spot.
Hamilton and Ottawa played the front end of the season ending home-and-home set last week at Tim Hortons Field. It got heated between the two teams after Simoni Lawrence applied a low tackle on Henry Burris, who’d absorbed a hit to his left knee in Week 18 and didn’t practice all week leading into the game. Burris voiced his displeasure with the hit and Lawrence replied.
Two days later Lawrence apologized, but not without delivering a subtle shot at the Redblacks’ 40-year-old quarterback.
Lost in all the focus on Burris and Lawrence was the fact that Hamilton pivot Jeff Mathews suffered a suspected concussion late in the game on a hit from Redblacks linebacker David Hinds. He has since been put on the one-game injured list and won’t play in the crucial regular season finale. That means Jacory Harris and Jeremiah Masoli, who have one combined CFL start between them, are both likely to see action at quarterback for Hamilton in the nation’s capital.
Ottawa is strong at home posting a 6-2 mark this season, but when the Ticats have been in tough spots under head coach Kent Austin they normally come out with better than expected effort. Hamilton should be able to keep it close and if Brandon Banks breaks a return touchdown the Tiger-Cats can win outright.
Line: Redblacks -4.5
Pick: Hamilton
Stampeders (13-4) @ Lions (7-10)
Last week: Stampeders won 42-19 at home against Saskatchewan; Lions won 27-25 in Toronto
Calgary travels to B.C. to finish the regular season and the Lions make the return trip to Cowtown a week later for the West Division Semi-Final – that means each team will likely be very conservative. If you like vanilla ice cream this is the game for you.
Each team will employ different starting quarterbacks than the men who will pull the trigger when the do-or-die game rolls around eight days afterwards. Backup Drew Tate gets the nod for Calgary and Travis Lulay, who has had his job taken by rookie Jonathan Jennings, takes the field for B.C. The Lions’ pivot hasn’t seen game action since September 3, over two months ago.
John Hufnagel and crew consistently have each unit focused and ready to execute at a high level no matter who’s on the field and for that reason take Calgary to cover.
Line: Stampeders -1.5
Pick: Calgary
Riders (2-15) @ Alouettes (6-11)
Last week: Riders lost 42-19 in Calgary; Alouettes lost 40-22 in Edmonton
Saskatchewan’s post-season dreams were quelled a long time ago. Montreal’s were dashed in Week 19.
Quarterback Keith Price has earned his first CFL start for the Riders with two solid outings in a row. He looks comfortable in the pocket and when needed he can extend or make plays with his feet. It’s an important audition for Price who could cement himself as the backup to a healthy Darian Durant heading into the 2016 campaign.
Some big-name Alouettes could be out of the lineup, so take Saskatchewan and the points.
Line: Alouettes -9
Pick: Saskatchewan
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 30-26-1
