TAMPA – Troy Polamalu, the everywhere-at-once safety for the Pittsburgh Steelers, figures the key to Super Bowl XLIII lies in whether or not the Steelers blitz can get to Kurt Warner before he off-loads the ball to Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Bolden.

It is the popular theory here in Tampa, that the game will be decided somewhere in that confrontation.

But Ken Whisenhunt, the Arizona Cardinals head coach, turns that prediction around: "I think we feel kind of the same way, about not being to hold up real long against their blitz."

So you know what that means?

Super Bowl XLIII will be come down to the Arizona defence – can you name three players? – or the Pittsburgh offence. Or perhaps special teams. Has anybody even written those two words this week – "special teams?"

Such is the glory in trying to predict a game that only Las Vegas seems to make any money on.

The website ABC15.com gives us Super Bowl predictions from various celebrities, spanning the market from Dick Clark to Joan Jett.

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who took in Friday night’s Tampa Bay Lightning game against the Philadelphia Flyers, told the site she likes Arizona. "Quarterback Kurt Warner is No. 1," she said, displaying her knack for research.

Tennis diva Serena Williams’ study goes just as deep. She figures the Cardinals will win 21-17, because, "Kurt Warner usually does something amazing near the end of a game. He’s an incredible quarterback."

Arnie Palmer goes with the Steelers, 28-14. "The Steelers defense is very strong. That will be the dominating factor in the game." Jack Nicklaus likes the Steelers too.

CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer has Pittsburgh, 42-10. "I think Pittsburgh is a much better team. Period."

Bobby Thomson, the old Giant who hit the "Shot Heard ‘Round the World" is betting Pittsburgh, by four points. Not surprisingly Ralph Branca, who pitched that home run ball to Thomson, is taking Arizona by nine points.

"They may be like the Giants," he said. "They're doing everything right."

In the end, there can be no doubt: celebrity or so-called expert, the safe pick is Pittsburgh. The Steelers went 12-4 this season while Arizona was just 9-7 – and no one would argue that the American Football Conference is not a tougher Conference than the NFC.

Defence, they say, wins championships. And Pittsburgh’s defence is better – case closed.

So why am I picking the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday?

Well, part of it is in my heart. I always cheer for a good story, and there is no better story than a sad sack franchise with a retread quarterback, coming down to Tampa and beating the mighty Steelers.

And as many offensive tricks as Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley has up his sleeve, it is hard to believe he will out-scheme the venerable Dick Lebeau, the 71-year defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh.

However, big plays tend to win the big games.

I like Warner to find the unexpected receiver often enough to rack up yards. That means finding the third or fourth receiver, or getting the balls into Edgerrin James’ hands with some green grass in front of him.

Pittsburgh has made hey on turnovers this post-season. Here’s betting they’ll go without on Sunday.

If Arizona can hang on to the ball long enough, keeping Ben Roethlisberger off the field in the process, we’re thinking – and hoping – that it can be done.

I’ve got Arizona: 30-23.