BY JIM LANG
sportsnet.ca

The arrival of the AFC Divisional playoff games means the AFC's top teams in the regular season -- Indianapolis and San Diego -- are back in action after enjoying the bye week. The Colts will face one of the league's best defences while the upstart Jets will try to make good on coach Rex Ryan's prediction and advance to the AFC Championship game.

SPORTSNET.CA NFL guru Jim Lang breaks down the AFC Divisional playoff games in the NFL and offers up his key match ups and picks the winners.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts

(Saturday, 8:15 pm/ET: Lucas Oil Stadium)

Upon further review, maybe it’s not a bad thing Jim Caldwell gave his key players some time off at the end of the season. I say this because the Ravens are coming to town. Think of it as the Vandals or Goths riding into Rome looking to lay waste to the Eternal City.

Led by outstanding head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Ravens have no issues with team identity: violent football is their business, and business is very good. The Colts are a finesse team that use skill, intelligence and superior schemes to beat its opponent. With future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning coming off one of the greatest seasons of his career, the Colts feel confident that they can withstand the Ravens onslaught. With the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the Colts can rush the quarterback and defend the pass. Their big weakness is stopping the run. The Colts ranked 24th in the NFL stopping the run, just ahead of the Detroit Lions.

That could play a big role in this game because the Ravens are not shy about running the ball 52 times like they did last week against the Patriots. Here’s the dilemma for Harbaugh: a number of teams ran the ball and controlled the clock and Manning was still able to beat. Manning was so good this year, he caused Bill Belichick to lose control of his senses and the man went for it on a 4th & 2 deep in his own end. The logic afterwards was that he didn’t think they could stop Manning. Until Jim Caldwell decided to pull Manning from the Jets game in Week 16, no one has been able to stop the man.

Key match-up: Peyton Manning vs. Entire Ravens defence

Ray Lewis and the Ravens defence did a real number on Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Wild Card game. Shutting down Manning and the Colts will be much harder. The Ravens will spend many hours in the film room preparing for the Colts bread and butter passing play: All Go Y Cross. Basically, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon run downfield on Go routes, meanwhile tight end Dallas Clark runs an in cut, or crossing pattern, and Manning hits him in stride for a big gain. I love Lewis, but he can’t cover Clark one-on-one.

Getting to Manning will be a lot harder for the Ravens than getting to Brady. Although they have just one Pro Bowlers on its offensive line, the Colts allowed a league low 13 sacks this year. A big part of that is Manning’s ability to sense the pressure and get the ball away quickly. Dominique Foxworth and Ed Reed in the secondary will also have their hands full because the Colts receivers run such disciplined patterns. Not only that, the Colts receivers will sometimes run two or three variations of the same pattern depending on whether or not the defender covering them is working their inside or outside shoulder. The wild card in the Colts' offence is the tight end Clark. No matter what play the Colts are running, they always seem to find a way to get Clark matched up with a defender they know he can beat.

Covering Dallas Clark will be a top priority for the Ravens' defence on Saturday.

Key match-up: Middle linebacker Gary Brackett vs. Ray Rice

Just ask the Patriots what Rice is capable of. Hell, the Ravens were able to beat the Patriots and they only threw the ball 10 times. It won’t be a big secret to the Colts what the Ravens will try to do on offence. But as the Patriots found out, stopping Rice and dealing with that big Ravens' offensive line is a lot tougher than it looks. Brackett and the Colts front seven can not miss any tackles at the initial point of attack. Rice has proven that if you miss him there, he is gone.

I really don’t think the Colts have any fear that Joe Flacco will be able to beat him with his arm, so look for them to put at least eight defenders in the box. Now the real fear for the Colts coaching staff is that even if they put eight in the box, Rice will still get his yards. If the Colts can force Flacco to throw the ball it’s game over.

Intangibles:

As great as Manning and the Colts have been the last decade, the fact remains they’ve only been to the Super Bowl once. If the Ravens lose, it will hurt, but life will go on. If the Colts lose, the fall out will be far reaching. Remember, this is the same team that was 14-0 and pulled its starters against the Jets to rest up for the playoffs. Well, the playoffs are here, so the Colts better not screw up.

Here’s another intangible to ponder: Ray Lewis. After all these years, Lewis is still one of the best linebackers in the AFC and he is the unquestioned spiritual and emotional leader of the Ravens. Before every game, Lewis reminds his teammates how blessed they are to play football and challenges them to leave it all on the field. Make of it what you want, but on the Ravens, it works.

Who wins: The Colts

The Ravens can’t win a second straight road playoff game if they only attempt 10 passes, can they? The Ravens' defence couldn’t possibly do a number on another Hall of Fame caliber quarterback for the second week in a row, could they? John Harbaugh and Lewis couldn’t possibly will this team of street fighters to a second straight upset, could they? These are all questions that are bound to haunt Caldwell and Manning right until kickoff. The great Achilles' heel of the Ravens is that they’re not built to pull off the huge fourth quarter comeback. If, as I predict, Manning and the Colts offence get a decent lead heading into the fourth quarter, then the game will be over. But if the Ravens score some quick points early, the Colts will be in serious trouble.

San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets

(Sunday, 4:40 pm/ET: Qualcomm Stadium)

Beating the Bengals is one thing, beating a team like the Chargers is another thing altogether for the Jets. The Chargers come into this game riding an 11 game winning streak. With Philip Rivers playing the best football of his career, the Chargers have a dizzying aerial attack and lead the NFL in yards per pass attempt. In other words, Rivers likes to drop back and throw the ball down the field.

The Jets come into this game feeling downright giddy. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez went a redonkulous 12 of 15 in the win over the Bengals, and he didn’t throw one interception. Where the Jets have a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, the Chargers are a more experienced and battled tested team. There are a few players, like LaDainian Tomlinson and Shawne Merriman, who have been around San Diego a long time and are still looking for their first trip to the Super Bowl.

After all these years, it finally looks like Norv Turner has the team he needs to get to the Promised Land. This year, the Promised Land can be found in Miami. To get there, the Chargers only have to play its game and not worry about Rex Ryan and the Jets. To be honest, other than Darrelle Revis, I don’t think the Chargers have a lot of respect for the Jets. Oh sure, they will say all the right things; but deep down, the Chargers look at playing the Jets as a mere stepping stone on their path to the Super Bowl.

In a rare NFL playoff scheduling quirk, this is the only outdoor game being played this weekend. The forecast for Sunday’s game you ask? Sunny and 16. It’s a hard life living in SoCal.

Key match-up: Darrelle Revis vs.Vincent Jackson

Who cares if Revis lost out the defensive player of the year award to Charles Woodson? Woodson is done for the season while Revis and the Jets are still alive. Revis, the undisputed best lock down cornerback in the NFL, will have hands full with the 6'5, 235-pound Jackson. A receiver built like a tight end, Jackson is a cornerback’s worst nightmare. Revis' technique is nearly flawless, but he’s only 5'11. Jackson will do everything possible to make the most of his height and reach advantage against Revis. The other worry for the Jets is that Revis will spend so much time trying to shut down Jackson that Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd will be matched up against lesser defenders. Even with Revis covering Jackson, don’t be surprised to see Rivers throw his way.

If Darrelle Revis is carrying the ball, Philip Rivers has made a mistake.

Key match-up: Linebacker Stephen Cooper vs. running back Shonn Greene

The leading tackler on the Chargers will have his hands full with the Jets amazing rookie from Iowa. Since the injury to Leon Washington, Greene has been the backup to Thomas Jones. Against the Bengals last week, Greene received the bulk of the carries and rewarded Rex Ryan by averaging 6.4 yards per carry. As a defence, the Chargers are much better against the pass than they are against the run. There’s little secret what the Jets will try to do Sunday, so Cooper and the rest of the Chargers linebackers must have excellent gap discipline and tackling technique. The Chargers coaching staff know what the Jets are all about and will scheme their defence to stop the run. If they do, that will force Mark Sanchez to spend all day throwing the ball. And that's the last thing coach Ryan wants to see.

Intangibles:

As much as Jets offensive co-ordinator Brian Schottenheimer devised a brilliant game plan for rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez last week, he also provided the Chargers with ammunition for its defence. You can be sure that Chargers defensive co-ordinator Ron Rivera will have something up his sleeve to confuse the rookie and force him into making turnovers.

A rookie quarterback winning one playoff game on the road is a major accomplishment; a rookie quarterback winning two straight playoff games on the road is beyond comprehension. Rivera and the Chargers defence will have taken a long look at the Jets win over the Bengals. Don’t be surprised to some exotic blitzes and coverages. After all these years of taken abuse from fans and the national media, all of a sudden Norv Turner looks pretty smart. It doesn’t hurt when you have the ability to pass the ball like the Chargers can this year and when you have a future hall of fame running back in the backfield.

LaDainian Tomlinson might not be the unstoppable force he once was, but old LT still scored 11 touchdowns the last 10 games of the season. One of the hidden gems on the Chargers is running back/kick returner Darren Sproles. Sporting some of the sweetest tattoos in the NFL, centre Nick Hardwick’s return to the Chargers lineup for the last two weeks of the regular season was a huge boost to their offence. At the end of the day, that’s why Norv Turner is so confident and why the Chargers are so dangerous: they’re a deep, talented and dangerous team.

Other than Revis, about the only other thing that scares the Chargers is Ryan. The Jets head coach has a knack for creating some unorthodox blitz packages. That means Hardwick and the Chargers offensive line will have to be meticulous with the pre-snap reads.

Who wins: The Chargers

The main thing that separates Philip Rivers from Carson Palmer is the fear factor. As in Philip Rivers has no fear. One of the cockiest quarterbacks in NFL history, Rivers has the arm and the guts to back up his smack talk. The man is not afraid to challenge any defensive back in the league and never shies away from throwing into double coverage. Rivers has so much faith in his arm and his receivers that he believes with all his heart that he can make any throw. As good as Revis is, Rivers won’t hesitate for a second to test him and get the ball into Jackson’s hands. Even if Revis locks down Jackson, he will play pitch and catch with Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates. The other thing the Jets will discover is that the Chargers are not easily intimidated. The Jets will try to play tough defence, they will try to pound the ball on the ground; in other words, they will try to punch the Chargers in the mouth. None of that will have much effect on Rivers and the Chargers.

No matter what team they’re playing right now and no matter what the score is, the Charges will just coming at you. It’s been a great run for the Jets, but the Chargers are just too much for them.