Some amazing grudge matches are in store for the NFL's divisional playoffs.
The wild card games gave us more than an exciting weekend of football; it gave us some amazing grudge matches for the divisional playoffs. After going 2-2 last week, here are my previews and picks for this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The last time these teams met, Haloti Ngata broke Ben Roethlisberger's nose with an "accidental" forearm to the face. When asked about that incident this week, Ravens coach John Harbaugh said, "I'm glad we broke his nose." That eloquent quote perfectly sums up how these two teams feel about each other. Make no mistake: no quarter will be asked for in this game, and none will be given.
Key match-up: Joe Flacco vs. the Steelers’ pass rush. Led by James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, the Steelers led the NFL with 48 sacks this year. In the Steelers’ win over the Ravens back on Dec. 5, it was safety Troy Polamalu that sacked Flacco and forced the fumble that set up the Steelers’ game-winning field goal. Flacco was able to overcome four sacks by the Kansas City Chiefs last week and still enjoy a very productive day. To be productive against the Steelers, Flacco and his centre Matt Birk will need to be at the top of their game when it comes to calling out their pre-snap blocking schemes.
Intangibles: One thing that makes this Steelers team different than ones we've seen in previous years is Mike Wallace. A second-year receiver from Ole Miss, Wallace's exceptional speed was a big reason why he scored 10 touchdowns this year and averaged 21 yards per catch. If Polamalu is the No. 1 safety in the NFL, then Ed Reed is No. 1A. One of the emotional leaders on the Ravens, Reed is just as capable as Polamalu at making game-changing plays. The weather could be a factor with the forecast calling for wind, snow and cold temperatures.
Who wins: For all the success the Ravens have enjoyed the past decade, the fact remains that they have never beaten the Steelers in the playoffs. This year, these two long-time AFC North rivals have never been closer. They split their two games in the regular season with each team scoring 27 points. The combination of a healthy Polamalu, Big Ben and Rashard Mendenhall will prove to be the difference in a violent and hard-fought game.
Steelers 23, Ravens 20
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
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| Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. |
Key match-up: Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes vs. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. The strength of the Packers’ defence is well known. What we don't really know yet is the capabilities of the Falcons’ defence. Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff told me a month ago that beefing up the defence was a major priority for the organization in the off-season. That included the signing of free agent cornerback Robinson. If there ever was a game for the Falcons’ defence to prove that they are for real, then this it.
Intangibles: Since 1990, No. 1 seeds in the NFC are 18-2 in the divisional playoffs. Here's another thing working in Atlanta's favour: Ryan is 20-2 in his career at the Georgia Dome. Last week, James Starks came out of nowhere to give the Packers something they really needed: a dependable running game. If the Packers are going to win, they are going to need to Starks to have another productive game. If Starks can run anywhere from 80-100 yards, the Packers’ offence will be tough to stop.
Who wins: This has all the makings of a tight game played by two very talented teams. Unlike the Eagles, the Falcons have a sledge hammer of a running back in Michael Turner to keep the Packers’ defence honest. But if there is one team that can overcome the Falcons’ running game and their home record, it is the Packers. Part of that is because of Rodgers. A bigger part of that is the Dom Capers and his outstanding defence.
Packers 24, Falcons 23
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears
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| Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch. |
Key match-up: Seahawks rookie offensive tackle Russell Okung vs. Bears defensive end Julius Peppers. When these two teams met in Week 6, the Seahawks called 40 passing plays. Peppers and the Bears’ defence did not record a single sack. Repeating that feat this weekend in Chicago would be an enormous achievement for Okung and the Seahawks’ offensive line. Not only did Peppers have eight sacks this year, he also knocked down nine passes at the line of scrimmage. A big concern for Pete Carroll is the fact Okung will be playing with a banged-up left ankle.
Intangibles: It goes without saying that the Bears spent a lot of time this week preparing to stop Marshawn Lynch. Brian Urlacher and the Bears’ defence have reviewed the film of that play, 17 Power, enough times to realize that trying to take Lynch down with an arm tackle is a complete waste of time. The last time these teams met, Bears linebacker Lance Briggs was injured. He's healthy now and he makes a big difference in their run defence. Last week, the Seahawks had the luxury of facing a New Orleans Saints team without much of a running game. This week, the Bears will unleash the underrated Matt Forte on them. In the last nine weeks of the season, Forte ran for 717 yards and added another 244 yards as a receiver.
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Who wins: Jay Cutler is the kind of quarterback that inspires strong opinions. But love him or hate, Cutler is the best pure quarterback the Bears have had in decades. If Cutler has the time to sit back and survey the field, he can pick apart a defence with that outstanding arm of his. The Bears’ offensive line isn't great, but Mike Martz has finally realized the benefits of running the football. The combination of their running game, defence, Cutler's arm, Devin Hester will be too much for the Cinderella Seahawks to handle.
Bears 27, Seahawks 17
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
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| Pats QB Tom Brady. |
With the Patriots in a Belichick-mandated verbal lockdown, the Jets are only too glad to speak their mind. When asked by the New York Daily News what kind of guy Tom Brady is, Antonio Cromartie called him an "***hole" and followed it up with "**** him."
Key match-up: Brady vs. Jets’ secondary. Cromartie might hate him, but there is no denying the greatness of Brady in 2010. Even beyond their undefeated regular season in 2007, Brady has never looked as good as he has this year. Brady has taken his game to a level even his most ardent supporters didn't think possible. The key to the Jets’ secondary is cornerback Darrelle Revis. Against the Colts, Revis held Reggie Wayne to one catch and one yard. Ryan admitted that there were points in the game against the Indianapolis Colts that Revis would play man-to-man, while he rolled coverage for the rest of the field. Brady is no fool, he will attack whatever weaknesses he finds in the Jets’ secondary. And if that means picking on Cromartie, then so be it.
Intangibles: By making the most of their time-consuming ground ‘n’ pound offence last week, the Colts only had three offensive possessions in the second half of the Jets’ dramatic win. If running the ball and controlling the clock was important to beat the Colts, it is 10-times as important against the Patriots. The Jets’ ability to run the ball took a big hit this week when they were forced to place starting right tackle Damien Woody on season-ending injured reserve with an Achilles’ tendon injury. One of the intangibles for the Patriots is a player that must really stick in Ryan's craw: Danny Woodhead. Cut loose by the Jets earlier in the season, the Patriots were only too glad to pick him up. The undersized but overachieving Woodhead ended up with 926 yards rushing and receiving and scored six touchdowns.
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Who wins: Rex Ryan went to great lengths this week explaining how the Jets and Patriots are basically equal in every way except for the respective head coaches. For the most part, he's right but there's no way that Mark Sanchez is an equal to Brady. That Pats QB hasn't thrown an interception since Oct. 17 and he has a remarkable 14-4 playoff record.
Ryan and the Jets will pull out all the stops to beat Brady and the Patriots. That is what the playoffs are all about. But the Patriots will not lose this game, because that is what Tom Brady is all about.
Patriots 30, Jets 19
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