Sportsnet Magazine looks at how the New England Patriots and New York Giants stack up heading into Super Bowl XLVI.
The Arms
Before the NFC Championship Game, you could have argued that Eli Manning was the luckiest QB in history. The 'Helmet Catch' in Super Bowl XLII and the Hakeem Nicks near-re-enactment against the Packers this year in round two suggested that Manning continually found himself in the right place at the right time. But look at what he's done for the Giants this season and especially throughout the playoffs-including last week's Herculean performance against the Niners in sudden death OT, absorbing contact and picking apart the NFL's best defence-and there's no debate. "There's no one better," says Super Bowl-winning QB Steve Young. "Some have been just as good, but no one's been better in the past month. He's making plays that only great quarterbacks make."
Manning and his 'Big Three' receiving core of Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz have developed the kind of chemistry only shared by the league's best passing offences, which is why they're likely to give the Patriots' 'D' fits. The Pats have done a good job of limiting the passing game of late, but it's the same secondary that allowed the second-most passing yards during the regular season.
If Brady doesn't win every game he's involved in, it's a major disappointment. That was certainly the case the last time the Pats and Giants met in the Super Bowl, when a historically dominant passing season (Brady smashed the single-season TD record that year) had the Patriots favoured by 11.5 points. Then, of course, David Tyree and Eli Manning hooked up for the most ludicrous catch in football history. As demoralizing as that loss was, the fact remains that in the past decade no quarterback in the NFL has been better.
In fact, no player-at any position-has been as consistently dominant as Tommy Boy. At six-foot-five, his pocket presence is incredible. He's unflappable as chaos unfolds around him. It's a gift he'll need to rely on heavily against a Giants front seven that is known for forcing quarterbacks out of their rhythm (in the regular season, the Giants sacked Brady three times en route to victory). The Giants also do a great job of limiting the deep pass, allowing a measly 3.8 average yards per passing play this post-season, but a Brady-led offence is built on versatility, and you get the feeling he's been waiting for this day for a long time. Four years and two days, to be exact.
THE EDGE: Patriots - Manning proved he's an elite quarterback this season, but the man with the three rings gets the nod.
-- Dave Zarum Sportsnet Magazine
The Guts
Tom Brady's cage is going to get rattled. Again. This Giants defensive line is as good as any in the NFL, with a front four that breaks through to Sackville so often New York doesn't need to blitz, allowing for extra-in this case, much needed-defenders in the secondary. Sophomore defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul ranked fourth in regular season sacks with 16.5 and had a breakout year worthy of a Pro Bowl selection.
Pierre-Paul is part of a deep front four that includes veterans Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck. They know how to bring the heat-just ask likely league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked four times and threw as many picks in the NFC semifinal, and Alex Smith, sacked three times and held to one third-down conversion in the final. And if the Giants want to throw a Super Bowl victory party, Brady has to feel the heat, too. Big time. His genius makes New England's decent offensive line look better than it is. They're able to provide just enough protection to give him time to shuffle around the pocket and rifle off precision throws into tight coverage. The Giants' 'Big Four' need to angle in, penetrate that pocket and rattle Brady's cage. Hard. After all, it's worked before. Remember 2008?
Logan Mankins is the meanest lineman in the NFL. Borderline dirty, even. The four-time Pro Bowl guard leads a veteran Patriots offensive line that is mediocre in pass protection, but still manages to get the job done with the help of Tom Brady's magic. New England's weakness is in a D-line that gave up more yards in the regular season than any AFC team.
Even the Ravens earned 398 yards in the conference final. But in the stat that counts, points relinquished, the Patriots ranked 15th in the NFL. Not stellar, but good enough when your quarterback is a future Hall of Famer. And what coach Bill Belichick doesn't have in ability on his D-line, he makes up for in schemes. His big guys will be better than well-schooled come game day, and they'll need any advantage they can get against a Giants line that ranked seventh in the NFL and is aces in pass protection. If the Patriots can pressure Eli Manning enough to force New York to rely on its running game, they have a good shot at winning the battle of the lines-and the game, with a Giants O-line that struggles to reliably open up holes for running backs. Or the Patriots can cross their fingers and hope their offence comes to the rescue.
THE EDGE: Giants - They're stronger in both matchups on either side of the ball, especially when it comes to their D-line.
-- Kristina Rutherford, Sportsnet Magazine
The Legs
The Giants' special teams are a true microcosm of the team as a whole; underwhelming during the regular season, overwhelming during the post-season. Consider that the Giants had the fewest wins of the six NFC playoff teams and were tied for last in the league with just 19 field goals this season, yet they're going to the Super Bowl and they lead the post-season with six three-pointers. But all that matters is that you get the plays when you need them, and that's exactly what happened in the NFC Championship game. The Giants forced two crucial turnovers on special teams, including a crippling strip on a punt return by linebacker Jacquian Williams in overtime that set New York up for the win.
Also making a play when his team needed it was kicker Lawrence Tynes, who struck a 32-yard field goal to book his team's trip to Indianapolis. But Tynes also seems to be moving in the opposite direction to his playoff-thriving team. He has an 81 percent career field goal percentage during the regular season, but that number plummets to 69 percent in the playoffs. He's already missed twice this year and needs to be more reliable in high-pressure situations.
The Pats' high-scoring, abrasive style doesn't necessarily lend itself to the finer intricacies of the game's third phase. But they certainly wouldn't be here if not for kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts in an AFC Championship game the Patriots won by three over Baltimore. Gostkowski is as reliable as they come; he hasn't missed a field goal since December and is 32 of 37 overall this season. Since entering the league in 2006, he has an 84 percent success rate and has scored the third-most points of any kicker.
But there were also reasons to worry about special teams in New England's triumph over the Ravens. Danny Woodhead fumbled a kick return that gave Baltimore great field position late in the third quarter, while Zoltán Meskó miscued both his punts, putting too much mustard on his first and not enough on the next. The Ravens took favourable field position from the latter and marched into Patriots territory where Billy Cundiff missed a game-tying field goal. That close call should serve as a stark reminder: while Bill Belichick may prefer to score with his QB's arm, often it's the kicker's foot that makes the difference.
THE EDGE: Giants-The Pats have a better kicker, but the Giants are forcing turnovers, often back-breaking in the Super Bowl.
-- Arden Zwelling, Sportsnet Maqazine
The Hands
Wide receiver Victor Cruz was a sophomore revelation for the G-Men this season, finishing third in the league in total receiving yards. He torched the 49ers for 142 yards in the NFC title game. "Earlier in the season we saw the Giants, and you could just feel they were destined to be in the middle of the pack in the NFC," says ESPN analyst and former QB Steve Young. "My comment at the time was, 'If the Giants are going to be more than that, somebody new is going to have to establish himself.' Now I see a ton of Cruz jerseys in the crowd."
Despite Cruz's heroics (and great salsa-dancing celebrations), receiver Hakeem Nicks may still be the Giants' biggest threat. Nicks, who figures to be just fine for the big game after being slowed somewhat by a shoulder injury versus the 49ers, is tied for the playoffs lead with four touchdowns.
New York, ranked fifth in passing with 295.5 yards per game, should be able to chew up New England's defence, which was even worse than the Giants' against the pass, ranking 31st. The Pats, however, were able to pick 23 passes this year, tied for the second-highest total in the NFL.
Between their super sophomore tight ends and the slipperiest wide receiver out there, the Patriots' air arsenal is devastating. Rob Gronkowski was an absolute terror this year, setting two single-season marks for a tight end, with 17 touchdowns and 1,327 receiving yards. "He catches everything," says ESPN analyst Tedy Bruschi, a former Patriot. "His hands are tremendous. Tom Brady knows he can put it anywhere he wants."
Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez might not be quite the six-foot-six, 260-lb. beast 'Gronk' is, but he's still a big target, especially in the red zone. Toss in Wes Welker, whose 1,569 receiving yards were second-most in the league, and it's easy to see why the Pats cause an astonishing amount of headphone-smashing by defensive coordinators. And while receiver Deion Branch may not be as prolific as Welker, Brady trusts him when he needs a big catch.
The most dangerous man in the Giants' secondary is cornerback Corey Webster, whose six picks tied for fourth in the NFL this year. But overall, the Giants were awful versus the pass, coughing up 4,082 yards, 29th in the NFL. That's bad news when faced with New England's fleet of receivers.
THE EDGE: Draw - The Pats' secondary can't cover the Giants' receivers, but their Welker/TE combo is also impossible to stop.
-- Ryan Dixon, Sportsnet Magazine
The Feet
The Giants' two-pronged running attack-speed from Ahmad Bradshaw, power courtesy of Brandon Jacobs-posted the worst rushing numbers in the NFL this year at a measly 89.2 yards per game. But with Bradshaw relatively healthy, the playoffs have brought a turnaround: both backs have upped their per-carry numbers between a half and a full yard since the regular season ended.
The Giants are a run-and-gun passing team, so their backfield primarily functions as a means of keeping opposing defences honest. The Bradshaw-Jacobs combination is great in that capacity, forcing teams to prepare for and defend against two completely different running styles-often on successive plays. Bradshaw missed the Giants' week nine trip to Foxborough, but Jacobs made up for his absence more than his 79 yards rushing suggest, having his 264-lb. way with the Pats' interior defence (worst in the league this season in rushing yards allowed), running over defenders and chalking up a touchdown. If the Giants can get up early, expect Bradshaw and Jacobs to get a lot of touches as Tom Coughlin uses them to run the clock, limit turnovers and, most importantly, keep the ball out of Tom Brady's hands.
If further proof was needed that the Patriots' running game is a total crapshoot, using tight end Aaron Hernandez as a back in their 45-10 divisional championship shellacking of the Broncos provided it. The move was pure Belichick (read: evil) and worked to perfection-Hernandez racked up 61 yards on just five carries. It was also typical of the Patriots, if only because it was so atypical.
Knowing he can lean on Tom Brady's passing attack for yards and touchdowns, Belichick's running game is an assortment of flashing lights and loud noises meant to confuse and anger defences. Believing you can predict what he'll throw at you is the surest way to be beaten by it-he ran with five different players against Baltimore, including wideout Julian Edelman, who he also used on special teams and defence. Possession will be crucial in the Brady-Manning air show. While handing the ball to true back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (68 yards and a TD versus the Ravens) will keep Eli Manning sidelined, the Pats are just as likely to find success throwing short slants. They'll run more if the Giants' pass rush-averaging three sacks a game this post-season-gets to Brady early, but otherwise keep watching the skies.
THE EDGE: Giants - Similar playoff numbers, but Bradshaw's and Jacobs' Super Bowl experience get them the nod.
-- Evan Rosser, Sportsnet magazine
The Brains
Tom Coughlin will stick to his guns, you can be sure of that. This is the kind of man who, when asked for his advice on leadership, simply quotes UCLA legend John Wooden, then delivers a mini-lecture on the importance of staying true to your own values. More than any other team in the NFL, the Giants embody their coach's values. After eight years, countless screaming matches, a few well-publicized grudges and one Super Bowl victory, they should. Coughlin's strength-and weakness-as a coach is that he doesn't hold his cards close to his vest. He's proud of the Giants' identity and won't let Bill Belichick get him out of his comfort zone with unfamiliar defensive packages and offensive sets. The Giants won't blitz often, because Coughlin knows his strong defensive line will generate enough pressure on its own-and besides, he'll need those linebackers and safeties to corral the Patriots' dynamic tight ends.
On offence, as always, he'll trust his guys even when they struggle. If the Patriots want to beat the Giants this time, they'll have to beat Tom Coughlin's game plan, because he simply won't play by theirs.
Bill Belichick is the kind of coach who makes this kind of preview irrelevant. His offence is as wrinkled as his hoodie after an overtime game, and he lives for on-the-fly adaptations. In the past three seasons, he's turned the Patriots tight-end position from a short-yardage afterthought to a game-changing offensive force. Over the past decade, he's gone from giving a full load to a workhorse running back to employing everyone from scat backs to cast-offs, to rookies and even tight end Aaron Hernandez as a ball-carrier. He'll use extra wide receivers as defensive backs if he has to, and he won't say a word to anyone about his plan until he's dodging questions about it after the game. There are exactly two things we can say with certainty about Belichick's plan for Super Bowl XLVI: he'll give Tom Brady every chance to run his clockwork-like passing offence, and he'll always, always go for the jugular whenever he has the slightest chance.
Belichick's offence is an unstoppable force, and Coughlin's defence has long been something of an immovable object. What will decide the battle is how far Belichick's ever-evolving offence can take Coughlin out of his comfort zone.
THE EDGE: Patriots - Because of the element of surprise. It's harder to predict what Belichick will do in any given situation.
-- Jordan Heath-Rawlings, Sportsnet Magazine
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